Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $2.0B

Below-average quality, screening 59% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.04 – $24.46 · fair‑value band $13.20 – $22.01 · the $11.05 price screens below the $17.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) currently trades at $11.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.61, implying the stock looks roughly 59.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Brightstar Lottery PLC generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 0.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at $2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.20 (bear case) to $22.01 (bull case); at $11.05, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 59%, BRSL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($35.11) versus DCF Models ($1.61). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant …

Full company description

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant ticket games; and offers printing services, such as instant ticket marketing plans and graphic design, programming, packaging, shipping, and delivery services, as well as lottery management services; instant lottery systems; and iLottery, a platform that provides access to eInstant and draw games. It also processes commercial transactions, such as prepaid cellular telephone recharges, bill payments, e-vouchers and retail-based programs, electronic tax payments, prepaid card recharges, stamp duty, and money transfer services; sells additional machines and central computers to expand existing systems or replace existing equipment; and licenses related software. In addition, the company provides marketing services, such as retail optimization and lottery brand awareness campaigns; telephone support, software and hardware maintenance, software development, and other professional services; and ancillary maintenance and support services for systems, equipment, and software. The company was formerly known as International Game Technology PLC and changed its name to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025. Brightstar Lottery PLC was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Brightstar Lottery PLC reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.

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Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• This is why Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) is a Top UK Dividend Stock Yahoo Finance · Jun 24, 2026
• Is Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) A Good Stock To Buy Now? Yahoo Finance · May 14, 2026
• Brightstar (BRSL) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript Yahoo Finance · May 12, 2026
• Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Digital Growth Amid ... Yahoo Finance · May 12, 2026

Peer Group

Gambling · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.