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Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Brightstar Lottery PLC $17.61, price $10.26, upside +71.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Home United Kingdom · ISIN GB00BVG7F061

Some data Sep 24, 2026

Brightstar Lottery PLC

BRSL · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $17.61 · Strongly undervalued (+72%)

!Quality 42/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.2 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

·8.28% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (8/13)

!Moderate moat 48/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on future: 4 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $13.20 to bull $22.01 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 42/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.04 – $24.46 · fair‑value band $13.20 – $22.01 · the $10.26 price screens below the $17.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally.

Brightstar Lottery PLC provides lottery solutions in the United States, Italy, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company designs, sells, operates, and leases a suite of point-of-sale machines that reconciles lottery funds between the retailer and the lottery authority; operates and provides lottery transaction processing systems; produces instant ticket games; and offers printing services, such as instant ticket marketing plans and graphic design, programming, packaging, shipping, and delivery services, as well as lottery management services; instant lottery systems; and iLottery, a platform that provides access to eInstant and draw games. It also processes commercial transactions, such as prepaid cellular telephone recharges, bill payments, e-vouchers and retail-based programs, electronic tax payments, prepaid card recharges, stamp duty, and money transfer services; sells additional machines and central computers to expand existing systems or replace existing equipment; and licenses related software. In addition, the company provides marketing services, such as retail optimization and lottery brand awareness campaigns; telephone support, software and hardware maintenance, software development, and other professional services; and ancillary maintenance and support services for systems, equipment, and software. The company was formerly known as International Game Technology PLC and changed its name to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025. Brightstar Lottery PLC was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) currently trades at $10.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.61, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $35.11 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the $10.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.19, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $13.20 (bear) to $22.01 (bull), the price of $10.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Brightstar Lottery PLC reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound −11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.0B · P/E ratio 34.2 · P/S ratio 2.00 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 72%, BRSL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.20 Fair Value $17.61 Bull $22.01

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

EPV $17.00 $21.25 $24.80 74

Residual Income $4.69 $5.69 $9.82 74

Owner Earnings $5.21 $11.11 $21.02 72

All 15 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $5.21 $11.11 $21.02 72

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $5.44 $6.65 $7.48 67

EPV $17.00 $21.25 $24.80 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $32.57 $35.11 $38.89 69

DDM Multi-Stage $32.57 $38.77 $46.77 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $13.20 $17.61 $22.01 63

P/S Multiple $10.20 $13.60 $17.01 58

P/B Multiple $10.20 $13.60 $17.01 55

EV/EBIT $50.59 $72.20 $93.81 65

EV/EBITDA $50.74 $72.39 $94.05 67

EV/Revenue n/a $2.17 $7.09 50

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $2.38 $3.19 $4.76 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $4.69 $5.69 $9.82 74

ROIC Compounder $17.00 $22.29 $27.40 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $9.31 $13.30 $17.29 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 32

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 28

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 2

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 16

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 80

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 63

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 22

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 2

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 97

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100

Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Revenue growth 1 year

+0.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−1.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.2%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

−10.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−18.6%

Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%

Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 35%

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Compare Brightstar Lottery PLC with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 57 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +72% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 1% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 8.3% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 4.64× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.2× · Priciest 25%

P/B 2.31× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.

P/S (TTM) 0.80× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 5.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 51

FUTURE (revenue growth)4 · sector 10

PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 34

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 86

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 67

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

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Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI	$21.22	$13.10	−38%
Super Group SGHC	$12.35	$13.59	+10%
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Lottomatica Group LTMC	€27.83	€30.61	+10%
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN	$79.49	$105.45	+33%
FDJ United FDJ	€22.34	€24.57	+10%
Tabcorp Holdings TAH	A$0.9350	A$0.6000	−36%

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Brightstar Lottery PLC · Fair Value
$17.61 +42%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BRSL" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Brightstar Lottery PLC · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$17.61</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+42%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Brightstar Lottery PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BRSL

Frequently asked questions

Is Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.61 versus a price of $10.26, about +72% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of BRSL?

Our model-based fair value for Brightstar Lottery PLC is $17.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.26.

What is the quality score of BRSL?

Brightstar Lottery PLC has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.20, optimistic scenario $22.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Brightstar Lottery PLC stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $17.61, about +72% upside versus a price of $10.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.20, optimistic scenario $22.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Brightstar Lottery PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Brightstar Lottery PLC pay a dividend?

Brightstar Lottery PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Brightstar Lottery PLC it is $17.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.26. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Brightstar Lottery PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, BRSL trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.26, fair value $17.61, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BRSL?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.61). For Brightstar Lottery PLC the two are $7.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Brightstar Lottery PLC worth?

The market values Brightstar Lottery PLC at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.26; our models calculate a fair value of $17.61 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BRSL?

Our models span a range for Brightstar Lottery PLC: cautious scenario $13.20, base $17.61, optimistic $22.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BRSL?

Brightstar Lottery PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 5.3.

How solid is the balance sheet of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Balance-sheet figures for Brightstar Lottery PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 4.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BRSL from its 52-week high?

Brightstar Lottery PLC trades at $10.26, about 41% below its 52-week high of $17.38 and 2% above the low of $10.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.61 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Brightstar Lottery PLC?

From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Flutter Entertainment plc, Evolution AB, The Lottery Corporation, Rush Street Interactive, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Brightstar Lottery PLC stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.26, calculated fair value $17.61 (+72%), Quality Score 42/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BRSL calculated?

We run Brightstar Lottery PLC through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Brightstar Lottery PLC currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.26. Our model-based fair value is $17.61, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Brightstar Lottery PLC right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Key figures of Brightstar Lottery PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The market capitalisation of Brightstar Lottery PLC is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 2.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Earnings per share at Brightstar Lottery PLC are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The dividend yield of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The net margin of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

The operating margin of Brightstar Lottery PLC is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Revenue at Brightstar Lottery PLC is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL)?

Earnings per share at Brightstar Lottery PLC are growing +48.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) generate?

The free cash flow of Brightstar Lottery PLC is −$415M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) carry?

The net debt of Brightstar Lottery PLC is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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