Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd stock $19.10, price $18.79, upside +1.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.95 – $23.39 · fair‑value band $17.43 – $22.56 · the $18.79 price screens below the $19.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 14, 2026.
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Tobu Railway Co., Ltd. provides private rail system services in Japan. The company also operates health clubs, golf courses, theme parks, and hotels. It also develops and manages condominiums, housing developments, department stores, and other properties along its railways.
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In addition, the company operate sightseeing service centers that offers assistance on ticket exchanges, purchase of tickets, various arrangements, and sightseeing information. Tobu Railway Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1896 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) currently trades at $18.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $29.87 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $18.79 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.57, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.43 (bear) to $22.56 (bull), the price of $18.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥660B in FY2026 versus ¥506B in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥56.0B in FY2026, compounding +42.8%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) $1.83 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 2%, TBURF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.43Fair Value $19.10Bull$22.56
Price $18.79 · Upside +1.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8693 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.7% vs 7.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 11%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Rail infrastructure provides some scale advantages, yet low returns on equity, negative free cash flow and high debt limit evidence of a durable moat.
Main risk: High leverage together with negative free cash flow risks constraining ongoing operations across the clustered rail, tourism, retail and real estate activities.
Tobu Railway is folding more stations into the expanded PASMO network that now covers 1,300 locations and offers free data access. Its rail operations sit alongside tourism, hotels, retail and real estate clustered along the same routes. Does this digital layer mainly reinforce the diversified model or simply layer extra costs onto a core business already showing mixed margin trends?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+1.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.98× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.10 versus a price of $18.79, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TBURF?
Our model-based fair value for Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is $19.10 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.79.
What is the quality score of TBURF?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.10 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.43, optimistic scenario $22.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tobu Railway Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.10, about +2% upside versus a price of $18.79 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $17.43, optimistic scenario $22.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥663B (latest available figure, as of Nov 14, 2026).
Does Tobu Railway Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 14, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd pays a dividend of $0.438 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 24.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tobu Railway Co. Ltd it is $19.10 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of $18.79. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tobu Railway Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, TBURF trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.79, fair value $19.10, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBURF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.10). For Tobu Railway Co. Ltd the two are $0.3143 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tobu Railway Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Tobu Railway Co. Ltd at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is $18.79; our models calculate a fair value of $19.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBURF?
Our models span a range for Tobu Railway Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $17.43, base $19.10, optimistic $22.56 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price $18.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TBURF?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Nov 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBURF from its 52-week high?
Tobu Railway Co. Ltd trades at $18.79, at its 52-week high of $18.74 and 20% above the low of $15.68 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tobu Railway Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tobu Railway Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price $18.79, calculated fair value $19.10 (+2%), Quality Score 50/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBURF calculated?
We run Tobu Railway Co. Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Tobu Railway Co. Ltd currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was $18.79. Our model-based fair value is $19.10, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tobu Railway Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) come from?
Earnings per share at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd grew 6.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.9 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The market capitalisation of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Earnings per share at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd are $1.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The dividend yield of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 2.3% (payout 24.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The net margin of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 8.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
The operating margin of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Revenue at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is growing 5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF)?
Earnings per share at Tobu Railway Co. Ltd are growing 3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) generate?
The free cash flow of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is −¥1.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tobu Railway Co. Ltd (TBURF) carry?
The net debt of Tobu Railway Co. Ltd is ¥749B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 14, 2026