Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tomra Systems ASA stock NOK 110, price NOK 99.60, upside +10.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 78.23 – kr 296.44 · fair‑value band kr 71.39 – kr 136.96 · the kr 99.60 price screens below the kr 109.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon.
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The company provides reverse vending machines and related data management systems; and provides pick-up, transportation, and processing services of empty beverage containers on behalf of beverage producers/fillers.
It also develops, produces, sale, and service sorting and processing technology for waste management companies or plant builders; and provides sorting systems for waste and metal material streams, as well as ore sorting sensors for mining companies.
In addition, the company provides post-harvest food solutions for fresh and processed food industries. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Asker, Norway.
Stock analysis
Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) currently trades at kr 99.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 109.56, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 84.43 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 99.60 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 18.78, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 71.39 (bear) to kr 136.96 (bull), the price of kr 99.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tomra Systems ASA reported revenue of €1.3B in FY2025 versus €10.9B in FY2021, a compound −41.0%/yr. Reported net income was €93.0M in FY2025, compounding −46.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 29.4B NOK (≈ $3.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 28.8 · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.46 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 10%, TOM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 71.39Fair Value kr 109.56Bullkr 136.96
Price kr 99.60 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−52.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−33.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−35.3% vs −17.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price and +10.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (45 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Regulatory support from EU packaging rules bolsters Tomra's reverse vending machines, yet the business faces mid-single-digit growth and a slowdown in new deployments after recent peaks.
Main risk: A slowdown in fresh deployments after record installations in new markets would curb revenue growth and pressure the expansion momentum of the reverse vending business.
Tomra's reverse vending machines are positioned to benefit from the EU Packaging Waste Regulation that became mandatory in August. After record installations in new deposit markets like Poland, however, the company now anticipates only mid-single-digit growth in established markets and a slowdown in fresh deployments for the second half. Will the third-quarter results due later this month confirm that regulatory support sustains momentum despite the normalizing installation cycle?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.8× · Pricier than median
P/B4.78× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.88× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)16.3× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tomra Systems ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOM
Frequently asked questions
Is Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 109.56 versus a price of kr 99.60, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TOM?
Our model-based fair value for Tomra Systems ASA is kr 109.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 99.60.
What is the quality score of TOM?
Tomra Systems ASA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 109.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 71.39, optimistic scenario kr 136.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tomra Systems ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 109.56, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 99.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 71.39, optimistic scenario kr 136.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Tomra Systems ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Tomra Systems ASA pay a dividend?
Tomra Systems ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 2.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tomra Systems ASA pays a dividend of kr 2.15 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. The payout ratio is 64.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.83 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tomra Systems ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -33.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOM use?
Our models discount Tomra Systems ASA at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tomra Systems ASA that is +9.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tomra Systems ASA grew -33.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tomra Systems ASA (+9.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.13 %: that much free cash flow Tomra Systems ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tomra Systems ASA it is kr 109.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of kr 99.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tomra Systems ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TOM trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 99.60, fair value kr 109.56, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 99.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 109.56). For Tomra Systems ASA the two are kr 9.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tomra Systems ASA worth?
The market values Tomra Systems ASA at about 29.4B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is kr 99.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 109.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOM?
Our models span a range for Tomra Systems ASA: cautious scenario kr 71.39, base kr 109.56, optimistic kr 136.96 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price kr 99.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOM?
Tomra Systems ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 109.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 4.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of TOM?
The PEG ratio of Tomra Systems ASA is 1.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tomra Systems ASA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOM from its 52-week high?
Tomra Systems ASA trades at kr 99.60, about 27% below its 52-week high of kr 135.84 and 12% above the low of kr 88.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 109.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tomra Systems ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tomra Systems ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price kr 99.60, calculated fair value kr 109.56 (+10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOM calculated?
We run Tomra Systems ASA through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 109.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tomra Systems ASA currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 99.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 109.56, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tomra Systems ASA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 71.39 to kr 136.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) come from?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA grew +12.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tomra Systems ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The market capitalisation of Tomra Systems ASA is 29.4B NOK (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tomra Systems ASA is 2.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA are kr 3.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The dividend yield of Tomra Systems ASA is 2.2% (payout 62.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The net margin of Tomra Systems ASA is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tomra Systems ASA is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tomra Systems ASA is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The operating margin of Tomra Systems ASA is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Revenue at Tomra Systems ASA is growing +19.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −52.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA are growing +60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) carry?
The net debt of Tomra Systems ASA is €452M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026