Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tomra Systems ASA NOK 58.68, price NOK 90.95, upside -35.5%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 78.23 – kr 296.44 · fair‑value band kr 40.64 – kr 89.41 · the kr 90.95 price screens above the kr 58.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon.
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Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon. The company provides reverse vending machines and related data management systems; and provides pick-up, transportation, and processing services of empty beverage containers on behalf of beverage producers/fillers. It also develops, produces, sale, and service sorting and processing technology for waste management companies or plant builders; and provides sorting systems for waste and metal material streams, as well as ore sorting sensors for mining companies. In addition, the company provides post-harvest food solutions for fresh and processed food industries. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Asker, Norway.
Stock analysis
Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) currently trades at kr 90.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 58.68, implying the stock looks roughly 55.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 22 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: kr 40.64 (bear) to kr 89.41 (bull), the price of kr 90.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tomra Systems ASA reported revenue of €1.3B in FY2025 versus €10.9B in FY2021, a compound −41.0%/yr. Reported net income was €93.0M in FY2025, compounding −46.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 29.1B NOK (≈ $3.1B) · P/E ratio 29.5 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.08 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −35%, TOM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 40.64Fair Value kr 58.68Bull kr 89.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.5559 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−52.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −14.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−32.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−35% vs −17%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.2% a year for the price and +13.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−36% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.5× · Pricier than median
P/B5.24× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF17.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.70× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)56· sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tomra Systems ASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOM
Frequently asked questions
Is Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 58.68 versus a price of kr 90.95, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOM?
Our model-based fair value for Tomra Systems ASA is kr 58.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 90.95.
What is the quality score of TOM?
Tomra Systems ASA has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 58.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 40.64, optimistic scenario kr 89.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tomra Systems ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 58.68, about −35% upside versus a price of kr 90.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 40.64, optimistic scenario kr 89.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Tomra Systems ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B NOK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Tomra Systems ASA pay a dividend?
Tomra Systems ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tomra Systems ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +49.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -33.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOM use?
Our models discount Tomra Systems ASA at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tomra Systems ASA that is +49.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tomra Systems ASA grew -33.2 % a year. The price currently implies +49.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tomra Systems ASA (+49.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Tomra Systems ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tomra Systems ASA it is kr 58.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of kr 90.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tomra Systems ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TOM trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 90.95, fair value kr 58.68, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 90.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 58.68). For Tomra Systems ASA the two are kr 32.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tomra Systems ASA worth?
The market values Tomra Systems ASA at about 29.1B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is kr 90.95; our models calculate a fair value of kr 58.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOM?
Our models span a range for Tomra Systems ASA: cautious scenario kr 40.64, base kr 58.68, optimistic kr 89.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price kr 90.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOM?
Tomra Systems ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 58.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 5.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 17.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TOM?
The PEG ratio of Tomra Systems ASA is 1.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tomra Systems ASA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOM from its 52-week high?
Tomra Systems ASA trades at kr 90.95, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 152.83 and 1% above the low of kr 90.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 58.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tomra Systems ASA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tomra Systems ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price kr 90.95, calculated fair value kr 58.68 (−35%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOM calculated?
We run Tomra Systems ASA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 58.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tomra Systems ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 90.95. Our model-based fair value is kr 58.68, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tomra Systems ASA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 40.64 to kr 89.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) come from?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA grew +12.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tomra Systems ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The market capitalisation of Tomra Systems ASA is 29.1B NOK (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tomra Systems ASA is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA are kr 3.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The dividend yield of Tomra Systems ASA is 2.4% (payout 69.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The net margin of Tomra Systems ASA is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tomra Systems ASA is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tomra Systems ASA is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
The operating margin of Tomra Systems ASA is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Revenue at Tomra Systems ASA is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −52.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tomra Systems ASA (TOM)?
Earnings per share at Tomra Systems ASA are growing −16.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) carry?
The net debt of Tomra Systems ASA is 452M NOK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026