Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · NO · Market cap 29.1B NOK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 52.45 to kr 58.72 (+12.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 90.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 39.58 to kr 90.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 78.23 – kr 296.44 · fair‑value band kr 39.58 – kr 90.08 · the kr 108.50 price screens above the kr 58.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Tomra Systems ASA (TOM) currently trades at kr 108.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 58.72, implying the stock looks roughly 45.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tomra Systems ASA generated revenue of 1.3B NOK at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 9.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at 452M NOK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 39.58 (bear case) to kr 90.08 (bull case); at kr 108.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -46%, TOM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 5.46) versus Asset-Based (kr 1.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon.
Full company description
Tomra Systems ASA provides sensor-based solutions for optimal resource productivity worldwide. It operates through four segments: TOMRA Collection, TOMRA Recycling, TOMRA Food, and TOMRA Horizon. The company provides reverse vending machines and related data management systems; and provides pick-up, transportation, and processing services of empty beverage containers on behalf of beverage producers/fillers. It also develops, produces, sale, and service sorting and processing technology for waste management companies or plant builders; and provides sorting systems for waste and metal material streams, as well as ore sorting sensors for mining companies. In addition, the company provides post-harvest food solutions for fresh and processed food industries. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Asker, Norway.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tomra Systems ASA reported revenue of kr 1.3B in FY2025 versus kr 10.9B in FY2021, a compound −41.0%/yr. Reported net income was kr 93.0M in FY2025, compounding −46.0%/yr from FY2021.
TOM screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Peer Group
Waste Management · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $233.33 | $128.02 | -45% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $219.20 | $122.01 | -44% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$242.43 | C$78.67 | -68% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$55.40 | C$94.12 | +70% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥16.18 | ¥20.91 | +29% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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