Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toppan Printing Ltd stock $4.56, price $6.16, that is 26.0% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.35 – $17.30 · fair‑value band $2.62 – $5.59 · the $6.16 price screens above the $4.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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TOPPAN Holdings Inc. develops solutions based on its printing technologies in Japan, Asia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Information & Communication, Lifestyle & Industry, and Electronics.
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The Information & Communication segment offers securities in general, bankbooks, cards, business forms, catalogs and other advertising and promotional printed materials, magazines, books, outsourcing, and other publications services.
The Lifestyle & Industry segment provides soft packaging materials, paper containers and other packaging, plastic molded products, inks, transparent barrier films, decorative sheets, wallpaper, and other building materials.
The Electronics segment offers LCD color filters, TFT LCDs, anti-reflection films, photomasks, and semiconductor package products. The company was formerly known as Toppan Inc. and changed its name to TOPPAN Holdings Inc. in October 2023.
TOPPAN Holdings Inc. was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) currently trades at $6.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.56, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.43 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $6.16 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.31, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.62 (bear) to $5.59 (bull), the price of $6.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Toppan Printing Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.9T in FY2026 versus ¥1.5T in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥68.7B in FY2026, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $9.1B Mid · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 0.75 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −26%, TOPPY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.62Fair Value $4.56Bull$5.59
Price $6.16 · Downside -26.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2250 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.4% vs 9.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (41 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Toppan's film-making and converting know-how supports its recycled packaging push, yet the conglomerate structure shows limited durable advantage through negative free cash flow and low return on equity.
Main risk: The ongoing shift from paper media to digital alternatives could reduce demand for Toppan's traditional printing and publications products, hitting volumes and margins in its information and communication segment.
Bull case: Toppan could leverage its film and electronics expertise plus AI-driven services to expand in sustainable packaging and semiconductor solutions, offsetting any print decline with higher-margin growth areas.
Bear case: If digital substitution accelerates and rivals intensify price competition, Toppan's core printing volumes could shrink further, pressuring overall margins despite diversification efforts.
Toppan just launched ReLayer, a brand of films made from recycled resins, to push resource-circulating packaging solutions. Its film-making and converting know-how gives it a base here, yet the wider printing and industrial mix faces ongoing shifts toward digital and sustainable demands. Does this materials push generate more growth than it demands in new capacity and margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 305 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.07× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.77× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 51
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.56 versus a price of $6.16, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOPPY?
Our model-based fair value for Toppan Printing Ltd is $4.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.16.
What is the quality score of TOPPY?
Toppan Printing Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $5.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toppan Printing Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.56, about 26% lower versus a price of $6.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $5.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Toppan Printing Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Toppan Printing Ltd pay a dividend?
Toppan Printing Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Toppan Printing Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2004. The payout ratio is 19.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toppan Printing Ltd it is $4.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $6.16. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Toppan Printing Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TOPPY trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.16, fair value $4.56, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOPPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.56). For Toppan Printing Ltd the two are $1.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toppan Printing Ltd worth?
The market values Toppan Printing Ltd at about $9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $6.16; our models calculate a fair value of $4.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOPPY?
Our models span a range for Toppan Printing Ltd: cautious scenario $2.62, base $4.56, optimistic $5.59 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $6.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOPPY?
Toppan Printing Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toppan Printing Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOPPY from its 52-week high?
Toppan Printing Ltd trades at $6.16, about 64% below its 52-week high of $17.30 and 10% above the low of $5.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toppan Printing Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toppan Printing Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $6.16, calculated fair value $4.56 (−26%), Quality Score 56/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOPPY calculated?
We run Toppan Printing Ltd through 8 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Toppan Printing Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.16. Our model-based fair value is $4.56, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toppan Printing Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.62 to $5.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Toppan Printing Ltd grew +12.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toppan Printing Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The market capitalisation of Toppan Printing Ltd is $9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toppan Printing Ltd is 0.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Earnings per share at Toppan Printing Ltd are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The dividend yield of Toppan Printing Ltd is 1.2% (payout 19.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The net margin of Toppan Printing Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toppan Printing Ltd is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toppan Printing Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
The operating margin of Toppan Printing Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Revenue at Toppan Printing Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY)?
Earnings per share at Toppan Printing Ltd are growing +137% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) generate?
The free cash flow of Toppan Printing Ltd is −¥45.2B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Toppan Printing Ltd (TOPPY) carry?
The net debt of Toppan Printing Ltd is ¥83.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026