Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock $388, price $353, upside +10.0%, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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TechnologyUS · Based in Taiwan · ISIN US8740391003
TSBroad dataNov 6, 2026
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSM · US
Fairly valued,in an uptrend
The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 75/100
Highly profitable · 51.1% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.1% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(11/15)
Wide moat98/100
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +51%, profit +69%.
Fair value $388.41 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +23.5 %/yr in TWD)
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Possible Chinese export curbs on rare-earth materials🚩Geopolitical risks from Taiwan base🚩Dependence on few AI customers🚩Rivals Samsung and Intel gaining share
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.05 – $485.80 · fair‑value band $211.30 – $482.53 · the $353.10 price screens below the $388.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally.
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It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others.
The company also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities.
Its products are used in high performance computing, smartphones, Internet of things, automotive, and digital consumer electronics. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) currently trades at $353.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $388.41, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $290.93 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $353.10 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $43.04, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $211.30 (bear) to $482.53 (bull), the price of $353.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported revenue of 3.8T TWD in FY2025 versus 1.6T TWD in FY2021, a compound +24.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T TWD in FY2025, compounding +30.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8T Mega · P/E ratio 22.9 · P/S ratio 10.3 · EPS (TTM) $15.43 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 45.1% · Return on equity 41.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 10%, TSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$211.30Fair Value $388.41Bull$482.53
Price $353.10 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Per share before 2006divided by the spin-off factor 1.03
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.7% vs 19.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 51%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
AI conclusion: TSMC's dominant foundry position delivers durable scale, switching costs and strong margins with robust cash flow, yet overseas expansions create ongoing cost pressures and infrastructure demands.
Main risk: US-China tensions or a Taiwan Strait crisis could disrupt production at its main Taiwan fabs or force faster costly expansion overseas that squeezes margins.
Bull case: Overseas fabs and continued technology leadership could let TSMC capture more of the global AI supply chain while maintaining high utilisation through diversified customer demand.
Bear case: Escalating geopolitical tensions or successful catch-up by Samsung and Intel could fragment its customer base, reduce pricing leverage and leave advanced capacity underutilised if AI spending moderates.
TSMC plans a new science park in Tainan to host a 1-nanometer fab, widely expected to be its own facility for next-generation AI and high-performance chips. The move aligns with aggressive road-map advances like the A14 node, yet overseas expansions add cost pressures and infrastructure demands. Our models see the business as undervalued. Will the technology leadership secure more durable demand than the execution challenges of global sites create?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 370 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)41.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)51.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)58.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)50.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B10.88× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)11.78× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)53.1× · Pricier than median
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Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $388.41 versus a price of $353.10, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TSM?
Our model-based fair value for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is $388.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $353.10.
What is the quality score of TSM?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $388.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $211.30, optimistic scenario $482.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $388.41, about +10% upside versus a price of $353.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $211.30, optimistic scenario $482.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.9T TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing pay a dividend?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently shows a dividend yield of 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing it is $388.41 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $353.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TSM trades below its calculated fair value: price $353.10, fair value $388.41, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($353.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($388.41). For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing the two are $35.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing worth?
The market values Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing at about $1.8T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $353.10; our models calculate a fair value of $388.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TSM?
Our models span a range for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: cautious scenario $211.30, base $388.41, optimistic $482.53 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $353.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TSM?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $388.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 22.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 10.9, P/S 11.8, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
What is the PEG ratio of TSM?
The PEG ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 41.9%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TSM from its 52-week high?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing trades at $353.10, about 27% below its 52-week high of $485.80 and 30% above the low of $272.50 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $388.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $353.10, calculated fair value $388.41 (+10%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TSM calculated?
We run Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $388.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $353.10. Our model-based fair value is $388.41, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($211.30 to $482.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) come from?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing grew +17.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.9 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
How large is the market capitalisation of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The market capitalisation of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is $1.8T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 10.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are $15.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The dividend yield of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 1.1% (payout 24.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The net margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 45.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 41.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 20.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
The operating margin of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is 58.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Revenue at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is growing +50.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)?
Earnings per share at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are growing +68.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) generate?
The free cash flow of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is $1.1T (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) hold?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing holds more cash than debt, $1.7T net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026