Vistra Corp. (VST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vistra Corp. stock $20.68, price $120, that is 82.8% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 20 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.39 – $216.67 · fair‑value band $20.09 – $29.76 · the $120.29 price screens above the $20.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure.
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The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities.
In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities.
It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.
The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Stock analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) currently trades at $120.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.68, 83% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $47.81 per share, and 0 of the 19 models we run sit above the $120.29 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.82, and 19 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.09 (bear) to $29.76 (bull), the price of $120.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Vistra Corp. reported revenue of $17.0B in FY2025 versus $13.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $944M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $50.5B Large · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 2.63 · EPS (TTM) $5.93 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 43.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −83%, VST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.33 to $69.33). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$20.09Fair Value $20.68Bull$29.76
Price $120.29 · Downside -82.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $1.2M, on Sep 1, 2026. Over the same period, 7 people sold shares worth $25.9M.
SaleKristopher E. MoldovanEVP and CFO2× since Sep 8, 2026: 40,000 shares, avg. $158.02$6.3MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleScott A HudsonEVP & President Vistra Retail3× since Nov 14, 2025: 122,666 shares, avg. $161.11$19.8MOct 6, 2026
BuyJames A BurkePresident and CEO, Director2× since Aug 24, 2026: 8,665 shares, avg. $135.38$1.2MSep 1, 2026
SaleJohn R SultDirector6,500 shares at $170.00$1.1MJun 18, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleArcilia AcostaDirector15,000 shares at $167.52$2.5MJun 18, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleScott B HelmDirector25,000 shares at $160.00$4.0MJun 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaul M BarbasDirector488 shares at $150.47$73,427Jun 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMargaret MontemayorSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2× since May 27, 2026: 9,600 shares, avg. $162.58$1.6MJun 2, 2026
SaleStephanie Zapata MooreEVP and General Counsel2× since Nov 24, 2025: 18,219 shares, avg. $166.19$3.0MMar 9, 2026
SaleJames A BurkePresident and CEO, Director2× since Nov 11, 2025: 44,186 shares, avg. $174.20$7.7MDec 11, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.0% vs −25.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+77.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +73.6% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from its large Texas footprint serving data-center demand, yet commoditized power markets and elevated leverage limit any durable advantage.
Main risk: Audits and rule changes in ERCOT and PJM could delay or restrict data center interconnections and colocation, reducing contracted sales from Vistra's nuclear and gas plants.
Bull case: Long-term PPAs with hyperscalers and federal support for nuclear uprates could secure steady cash flows even if some regulatory delays occur.
Bear case: Prolonged regulatory pauses combined with slower AI-driven load growth could leave significant capacity uncontracted and pressure margins in competitive wholesale markets.
Vistra's large Texas footprint ties much of its generation to power demand from data centers and other large users. The recent election of a governor who campaigned for a moratorium on new data centers raises questions about how quickly that demand will materialize. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the business shift generation assets fast enough to limit the impact, or will the exposure to one state's policy changes weigh more heavily?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−82.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)43.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.10× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B9.87× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.63× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow391.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
PEG0.34× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 72
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vistra Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VST
Frequently asked questions
Is Vistra Corp. (VST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.68 versus a price of $120.29, about 83% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VST?
Our model-based fair value for Vistra Corp. is $20.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $120.29.
What is the quality score of VST?
Vistra Corp. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.09, optimistic scenario $29.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vistra Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.68, about 83% lower versus a price of $120.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.09, optimistic scenario $29.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Vistra Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Vistra Corp. pay a dividend?
Vistra Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vistra Corp. (VST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vistra Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +77.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VST use?
Our models discount Vistra Corp. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vistra Corp. that is +77.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vistra Corp. (VST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vistra Corp. grew +8.9 % a year. The price currently implies +77.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vistra Corp. (VST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vistra Corp. (+77.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Vistra Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vistra Corp. it is $20.68 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $120.29. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vistra Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, VST trades above its calculated fair value: price $120.29, fair value $20.68, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($120.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.68). For Vistra Corp. the two are $99.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vistra Corp. worth?
The market values Vistra Corp. at about $50.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $120.29; our models calculate a fair value of $20.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VST?
Our models span a range for Vistra Corp.: cautious scenario $20.09, base $20.68, optimistic $29.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $120.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VST?
Vistra Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.68 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 55.2 (reported for FY2025: 43.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 11.3. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 9.9, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of VST?
The PEG ratio of Vistra Corp. is 0.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vistra Corp. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 43.0%, debt of 3.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VST from its 52-week high?
Vistra Corp. trades at $120.29, about 37% below its 52-week high of $189.90 and at the low of $120.29 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vistra Corp.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, Gulf Development Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vistra Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $120.29, calculated fair value $20.68 (−83%), Quality Score 39/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VST calculated?
We run Vistra Corp. through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Vistra Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $120.29. Our model-based fair value is $20.68, about 83% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vistra Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Vistra Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The market capitalisation of Vistra Corp. is $50.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vistra Corp. is 2.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Earnings per share at Vistra Corp. are $5.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The dividend yield of Vistra Corp. is 0.8% (payout 19.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 15.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The net margin of Vistra Corp. is 11.6% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2025 4.2%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vistra Corp. is 43.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vistra Corp. is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vistra Corp. (VST)?
The operating margin of Vistra Corp. is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Revenue at Vistra Corp. is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vistra Corp. (VST)?
Earnings per share at Vistra Corp. are growing −6.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vistra Corp. (VST) carry?
The net debt of Vistra Corp. is $19.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026