Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Williams-Sonoma Inc stock $164, price $259, that is 36.5% below the price, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.51 – $270.08 · fair‑value band $108.32 – $206.07 · the $258.61 price screens above the $164.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Williams-Sonoma, Inc. operates as an omni-channel specialty retailer of various products for home the United States and internationally.
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The company provides cooking, dining, and entertaining products, such as cookware, tools, electrics, cutlery, tabletop and bar, outdoor, furniture, and a library of cookbooks.
It offers home furnishings, home decor products and accessories, bedding, lighting, rugs, table essentials, kids accessories, made-to-order lighting, hardware, personalized products, custom gifts, and vintage-inspired heirloom products.
It offers its products under the Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Teen, West Elm, Williams Sonoma Home, Rejuvenation, Mark and Graham, and GreenRow brand names. The company markets its products through e-commerce websites, direct-mail catalogs, and retail stores.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Stock analysis
Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) currently trades at $258.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $164.11, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $185.64 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $258.61 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $36.56, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $108.32 (bear) to $206.07 (bull), the price of $258.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Williams-Sonoma Inc reported revenue of $7.8B in FY2026 versus $8.2B in FY2022, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $31.8B Large · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 3.98 · EPS (TTM) $9.75 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 55.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 28.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −37%, WSM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$108.32Fair Value $164.11Bull$206.07
Price $258.61 · Downside -36.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.28 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $23.7M and none bought.
SaleAnne A. FinucaneDirector794 shares at $252.14$200,197Oct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKaralyn YearoutEVP CHIEF TALENT OFFICER7× since Jan 14, 2026: 6,712 shares, avg. $217.13$1.5MOct 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLaura AlberPRESIDENT & CEO, Director8× since Nov 25, 2025: 205,000 shares, avg. $201.21$41.2MSep 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJeffrey HowieEVP CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER3× since Mar 26, 2026: 37,148 shares, avg. $184.21$6.8MSep 16, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.5% vs 18.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Williams-Sonoma's strength lies in its digital-first model with distinct home brands that support share gains and margin lifts, yet thin evidence of a durable moat leaves it exposed in a competitive retail sector.
Main risk: Higher tariffs on goods from China, where the company sources about a quarter of its merchandise, could raise costs and erode gross margins unless fully offset by price increases or vendor concessions.
Bull case: By accelerating shifts to non-tariffed sourcing regions and leveraging its design expertise plus omnichannel brands, the company could maintain pricing power and gain share from less differentiated rivals.
Bear case: Persistent tariff costs combined with aggressive pricing from Wayfair-style platforms and off-price retailers could compress margins and slow sales growth if consumers shift toward cheaper alternatives in a cautious discretionary environment.
Williams-Sonoma runs as a digital-first retailer with a portfolio of distinct home brands that reach customers through e-commerce, catalogs, stores and growing B2B channels. This setup has allowed it to gain share in a soft housing market while lifting margins with limited discounting. Can the mix of brand strength and channel diversification keep delivering in a discretionary environment, or will consumer caution and input costs eventually cap the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−36.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)55.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Williams-Sonoma Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WSM
Frequently asked questions
Is Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $164.11 versus a price of $258.61, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WSM?
Our model-based fair value for Williams-Sonoma Inc is $164.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $258.61.
What is the quality score of WSM?
Williams-Sonoma Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $164.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $108.32, optimistic scenario $206.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Williams-Sonoma Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $164.11, about 37% lower versus a price of $258.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $108.32, optimistic scenario $206.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Williams-Sonoma Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Williams-Sonoma Inc pay a dividend?
Williams-Sonoma Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.10% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Williams-Sonoma Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WSM use?
Our models discount Williams-Sonoma Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Williams-Sonoma Inc that is +18.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Williams-Sonoma Inc grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +18.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Williams-Sonoma Inc (+18.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.31 %: that much free cash flow Williams-Sonoma Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Williams-Sonoma Inc it is $164.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $258.61. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Williams-Sonoma Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, WSM trades above its calculated fair value: price $258.61, fair value $164.11, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WSM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($258.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($164.11). For Williams-Sonoma Inc the two are $94.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Williams-Sonoma Inc worth?
The market values Williams-Sonoma Inc at about $31.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $258.61; our models calculate a fair value of $164.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WSM?
Our models span a range for Williams-Sonoma Inc: cautious scenario $108.32, base $164.11, optimistic $206.07 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $258.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WSM?
Williams-Sonoma Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $164.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 15.3, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 18.6.
What is the PEG ratio of WSM?
The PEG ratio of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 3.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Williams-Sonoma Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 55.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WSM from its 52-week high?
Williams-Sonoma Inc trades at $258.61, about 4% below its 52-week high of $270.08 and 54% above the low of $167.57 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $164.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Williams-Sonoma Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, Best Buy Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Williams-Sonoma Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $258.61, calculated fair value $164.11 (−37%), Quality Score 79/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WSM calculated?
We run Williams-Sonoma Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $164.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Williams-Sonoma Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $258.61. Our model-based fair value is $164.11, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Williams-Sonoma Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($206.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($108.32 to $206.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) come from?
Earnings per share at Williams-Sonoma Inc grew +19.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +6.6 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Williams-Sonoma Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The market capitalisation of Williams-Sonoma Inc is $31.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 3.98 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Earnings per share at Williams-Sonoma Inc are $9.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The dividend yield of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 1.1% (payout 29.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The net margin of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 14.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 55.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 28.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
The operating margin of Williams-Sonoma Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Revenue at Williams-Sonoma Inc is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM)?
Earnings per share at Williams-Sonoma Inc are growing +42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Williams-Sonoma Inc (WSM) carry?
The net debt of Williams-Sonoma Inc is $437M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026