TMX Group Limited (X) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TMX Group Limited stock C$59.03, price C$60.89, that is 3.1% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$22.12 – C$60.97 · fair‑value band C$15.30 – C$82.10 · the C$60.89 price screens above the C$59.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally.
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It operates in four segments: Global Insights; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading & Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing.
The company delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third-party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing.
It also operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services; and Newsfile, a news dissemination and regulatory filing provider.
In addition, the company operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; BOX, a US equity operations market; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements.
Further, it engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and Alpha Exchange; CDS Clearing, an automated facility for the clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services, as well as involved in trading operation of AlphaX U.S., a broker-dealer.
The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
TMX Group Limited (X) currently trades at C$60.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$59.03, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$72.69 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the C$60.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at C$15.98, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$15.30 (bear) to C$82.10 (bull), the price of C$60.89 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TMX Group Limited reported revenue of C$2.9B in FY2025 versus C$981M in FY2021, a compound +31.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$416M in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$16.9B (≈ $12.0B) Large · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 8.77 · EPS (TTM) C$2.21 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 30.6% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −3%, X screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$15.30Fair Value C$59.03BullC$82.10
Price C$60.89 · Downside -3.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.6% vs 10.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 26%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and −1.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Expansion into global data and analytics strengthens the exchange franchise through recurring revenue, but low returns on assets and insufficient evidence of competitive durability limit overall business quality.
Main risk: The Canadian Securities Exchange could acquire Cboe Canada and create a larger domestic rival that takes listings and trading volume from TMX's TSX and TSX-V platforms.
Bull case: TMX could integrate AI into its proprietary data platforms and expand global distribution to make its network effects even harder for rivals or self-built client solutions to displace.
Bear case: Consolidation among smaller Canadian exchanges combined with clients shifting to AI-built data could erode TMX's trading volumes and data subscriptions, leaving its core franchise more dependent on a shrinking domestic base.
TMX Group is pushing its Global Insights and Analytics segment toward half of total revenue through deals and international expansion, while keeping recurring revenue on track for two-thirds of the mix. Our models see the stock as undervalued as transactional Canadian markets continue alongside this shift. Will the added scale from data and global reach reinforce the exchange franchise more than it risks diluting focus on domestic listings and trading?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−3.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)38.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.6× · Pricier than median
P/B3.55× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TMX Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/X
Frequently asked questions
Is TMX Group Limited (X) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$59.03 versus a price of C$60.89, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of X?
Our model-based fair value for TMX Group Limited is C$59.03 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$60.89.
What is the quality score of X?
TMX Group Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TMX Group Limited (X)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$59.03 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$15.30, optimistic scenario C$82.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TMX Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$59.03, about 3% lower versus a price of C$60.89 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$15.30, optimistic scenario C$82.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TMX Group Limited (X)?
TMX Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does TMX Group Limited pay a dividend?
TMX Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into TMX Group Limited (X)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TMX Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.6 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of X use?
Our models discount TMX Group Limited at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TMX Group Limited that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TMX Group Limited (X) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TMX Group Limited grew +27.6 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TMX Group Limited (X) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TMX Group Limited (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.36 %: that much free cash flow TMX Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TMX Group Limited (X)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TMX Group Limited it is C$59.03 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of C$60.89. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TMX Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, X trades above its calculated fair value: price C$60.89, fair value C$59.03, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of X?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$60.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$59.03). For TMX Group Limited the two are C$1.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TMX Group Limited worth?
The market values TMX Group Limited at about C$16.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is C$60.89; our models calculate a fair value of C$59.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about X?
Our models span a range for TMX Group Limited: cautious scenario C$15.30, base C$59.03, optimistic C$82.10 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price C$60.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of X?
TMX Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$59.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.6, P/S 8.8, EV/EBITDA 17.0.
What is the PEG ratio of X?
The PEG ratio of TMX Group Limited is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TMX Group Limited (X)?
Balance-sheet figures for TMX Group Limited (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is X from its 52-week high?
TMX Group Limited trades at C$60.89, at its 52-week high of C$60.97 and 38% above the low of C$43.96 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$59.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TMX Group Limited?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TMX Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price C$60.89, calculated fair value C$59.03 (−3%), Quality Score 56/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of X calculated?
We run TMX Group Limited through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$59.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. TMX Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$60.89. Our model-based fair value is C$59.03, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TMX Group Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$15.30 to C$82.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of TMX Group Limited (X) come from?
Earnings per share at TMX Group Limited grew +11.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TMX Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The market capitalisation of TMX Group Limited is C$16.9B (≈ $12.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TMX Group Limited is 8.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TMX Group Limited (X)?
Earnings per share at TMX Group Limited are C$2.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The dividend yield of TMX Group Limited is 1.5% (payout 41.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The net margin of TMX Group Limited is 30.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TMX Group Limited is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TMX Group Limited (X)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TMX Group Limited is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TMX Group Limited (X)?
The operating margin of TMX Group Limited is 38.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TMX Group Limited (X)?
Revenue at TMX Group Limited is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TMX Group Limited (X)?
Earnings per share at TMX Group Limited are growing −11.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TMX Group Limited (X) carry?
The net debt of TMX Group Limited is C$1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026