TMX Group (X) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CA · Market cap C$13.7B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +10.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$27.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$22.12 – C$56.96 · fair‑value band C$15.17 – C$27.22 · the C$52.44 price screens above the C$19.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
TMX Group (X) currently trades at C$52.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.57, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, TMX Group generated revenue of C$1.8B at a net margin of 29.9%. Revenue grew 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at C$1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$15.17 (bear case) to C$27.22 (bull case); at C$52.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -63%, X screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$41.36) versus Asset-Based (C$11.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates in four segments: Global Insights; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading & Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing.
Full company description
TMX Group Limited operates exchanges, markets, and clearinghouses primarily for capital markets in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates in four segments: Global Insights; Capital Formation; Derivatives Trading & Clearing; and Equities and Fixed Income Trading & Clearing. The company delivers equities and index data, as well as integrated data sets for the proprietary and third-party analytics to help clients in making trading and investment decisions; and provides solutions to European and global wholesale energy markets for price discovery, trade execution, post-trade transparency, and straight through processing. It also operates Toronto Stock Exchange, a national stock exchange for the senior equities market; TSX Venture Exchange, a national stock exchange for the public venture equity market; TSX Trust that provides corporate trust, registrar, transfer agency, and foreign exchange services; and Newsfile, a news dissemination and regulatory filing provider. In addition, the company operates Montreal Exchange, a national derivatives exchange; Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, a clearinghouse for options and futures contracts; BOX, a US equity operations market; and various over-the-counter products and fixed income repurchase agreements. Further, it engages in the trading operations of Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX Venture Exchange, and Alpha Exchange; CDS Clearing, an automated facility for the clearing and settlement of equities and fixed income transactions, and custody of securities; and provision of fixed income inter-dealer brokerage services, as well as involved in trading operation of AlphaX U.S., a broker-dealer. The company was formerly known as Maple Group Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to TMX Group Limited in August 2012. TMX Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TMX Group reported revenue of C$2.9B in FY2025 versus C$981M in FY2021, a compound +31.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$416M in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.
X screens 63% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Cboe Completes Sale of Cboe Australia to TMX Group
- TMX Group Completes Acquisition of Cboe Australia
- TMX Group Ltd (TMXXF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic US ...
- TMX Group Limited Increases Dividend by 8% to $0.26 per Common Share
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Intercontinental Exchange, Inc ICE | $139.65 | $75.95 | -46% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
Compare TMX Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is TMX Group (X) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of X?
What is the quality score of X?
What is the revenue of TMX Group (X)?
What is the net profit margin of X?
Does TMX Group pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track TMX Group and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.