Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 3, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd stock $13.94, price $12.83, upside +8.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.69 – $25.32 · fair‑value band $10.17 – $17.71 · the $12.83 price screens below the $13.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. provides logistics shipping services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Contract logistics Business, Global Business, Mobility Business, and Other segments.
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The Express Business segment engages in the truck transportation, and chartered roll box pallet transportation businesses, as well as provides home delivery services for individuals and corporate customers.
The Contract and logistics Business segment engages in the third party and real estate business.
The Global Business segment engages in truck transportation business for corporate customers; planning and operation of logistics centers; and import/export customs clearance, and air transport agency services.
The Mobility Business segment engages in automobile maintenance, fuel sales, and non-life insurance agency business. The Other engages in the development and operation management of IT system, call center, and financial services business.
Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) currently trades at $12.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.94, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $13.37 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the $12.83 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.12, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.17 (bear) to $17.71 (bull), the price of $12.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.8T in FY2022, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.5B in FY2026, compounding −28.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.1B Mid · P/E ratio 47.5 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 9%, YATRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.17Fair Value $13.94Bull$17.71
Price $12.83 · Upside +8.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$11.05$14.71$20.0981
Growth DCF$11.36$14.86$19.8080
Owner Earnings$15.16$20.63$28.6677
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$11.05$14.71$20.0981
Owner Earnings$15.16$20.63$28.6677
5Y Revenue Exit$8.95$11.64$14.8774
5Y EBITDA Exit$16.87$25.49$35.0375
5Y P/E Exit$8.23$10.37$12.4472
10Y Revenue Exit$9.48$12.03$15.0468
10Y EBITDA Exit$14.67$21.52$29.8468
10Y P/E Exit$9.18$11.16$13.2665
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.97$4.12$5.2266
PEG = 1.0$0.6200$0.8800$1.1457
EPV$5.70$6.23$6.7074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.01$4.63$6.4368
DDM Multi-Stage$3.01$4.37$6.0066
Multiples
P/E Multiple$4.55$6.07$7.5963
P/S Multiple$3.69$4.91$6.1458
P/B Multiple$34.19$45.58$56.9855
EV/EBIT$8.50$11.04$13.5966
EV/EBITDA$20.77$27.40$34.0467
EV/Revenue$6.31$8.65$10.9854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.06$6.79$10.1354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$11.36$14.86$19.8080
Rev-Margin DCF$8.95$11.76$14.7374
Economic Profit
Residual Income$8.30$8.21$8.3776
ROIC Compounder$5.70$6.23$6.7072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$3.34$4.77$6.2067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.2% vs −6.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.6% a year for the price and −0.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strength in refining prices for big corporate accounts and lifting volumes from smaller shippers while tightening operating costs is offset by the main weakness of limited durable moat from thin margins and persistently low returns.
Main risk: Fresh volume softness or rising input costs in the competitive trucking sector would hit margins in the core TA-Q-BIN network.
Yamato keeps refining prices for big corporate accounts and lifting volumes from smaller shippers in its core TA-Q-BIN network while tightening operating costs. These moves target margin recovery in a competitive trucking sector. Will the efficiency and mix improvements outrun any fresh volume softness or rising input costs?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)47.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.12× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.34× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.5× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YATRY
Frequently asked questions
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.94 versus a price of $12.83, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of YATRY?
Our model-based fair value for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is $13.94 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.83.
What is the quality score of YATRY?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.94 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.17, optimistic scenario $17.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.94, about +9% upside versus a price of $12.83 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.17, optimistic scenario $17.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd pays a dividend of $0.291 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2009. The payout ratio is 101% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.52 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yamato Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YATRY use?
Our models discount Yamato Holdings Co Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd that is +0.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (+0.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.72 %: that much free cash flow Yamato Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd it is $13.94 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $12.83. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, YATRY trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.83, fair value $13.94, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YATRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.94). For Yamato Holdings Co Ltd the two are $1.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Yamato Holdings Co Ltd at about $4.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $12.83; our models calculate a fair value of $13.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YATRY?
Our models span a range for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario $10.17, base $13.94, optimistic $17.71 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $12.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YATRY?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.5 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.94 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 25.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YATRY from its 52-week high?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd trades at $12.83, about 9% below its 52-week high of $14.11 and 22% above the low of $10.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $12.83, calculated fair value $13.94 (+9%), Quality Score 64/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YATRY calculated?
We run Yamato Holdings Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.94 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Yamato Holdings Co Ltd currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The closing price on Nov 3, 2026 was $12.83. Our model-based fair value is $13.94, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yamato Holdings Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) come from?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd grew +1.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −10.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The market capitalisation of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is $4.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The dividend yield of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is 2.3% (payout 108%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The net margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
The operating margin of Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Revenue at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY)?
Earnings per share at Yamato Holdings Co Ltd are growing −19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Yamato Holdings Co Ltd (YATRY) hold?
Yamato Holdings Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥43.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026