Zalando SE (ZAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Zalando SE stock €24.04, price €27.72, that is 13.3% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €16.32 – €97.82 · fair‑value band €16.83 – €31.26 · the €27.72 price screens above the €24.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Zalando SE operates an online platform for fashion and lifestyle products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through Business-to-Business and Business-to-Consumer segments.
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It engages in the development, sourcing, marketing, retail, and commission sale of various type of goods, including shoes, apparel, accessories, and beauty products with free delivery and returns, as well as various payment options.
The company sells its products through Lounge by Zalando and its outlets. Zalando SE was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Berlin, Germany.
Stock analysis
Zalando SE (ZAL) currently trades at €27.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.04, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €77.72 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €27.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.21, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €16.83 (bear) to €31.26 (bull), the price of €27.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Zalando SE reported revenue of €12.3B in FY2025 versus €10.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €215M in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €7.0B Mid · P/E ratio 120.5 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) €0.2300 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −13%, ZAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€16.83Fair Value €24.04Bull€31.26
Price €27.72 · Downside -13.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1972 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.1% vs 5.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
2025 sits 158% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.9% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Expanding B2B services and the new AI platform rollout support growth potential, yet limited moat and persistent margin pressure in the core consumer business constrain durability.
Main risk: Ultra-fast-fashion platforms such as Shein and Temu with lower prices and gamified shopping could draw customers away from Zalando or force it to cut margins in the European online fashion market.
Bull case: Zalando could leverage its AI tools for content and returns automation together with its logistics network and brand curation to differentiate from ultra-cheap rivals and meet stricter platform rules more efficiently than smaller players.
Bear case: If Shein, Temu and similar models continue to capture share with lower prices while DSA obligations add compliance costs, Zalando might see sustained pressure on volumes and margins in its core European markets.
Zalando's B2B division posted nearly 28 percent revenue growth and more than doubled its adjusted EBIT in the third quarter, while the core consumer business delivered only modest gains amid margin pressure from price investments. At the same time the company is rolling out an AI-powered platform to let customers shop third-party retailers without leaving its ecosystem. Does the expanding services business provide enough buffer against slower consumer momentum and the uncertainties of agentic commerce?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zalando SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZAL
Frequently asked questions
Is Zalando SE (ZAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.04 versus a price of €27.72, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZAL?
Our model-based fair value for Zalando SE is €24.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €27.72.
What is the quality score of ZAL?
Zalando SE has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €16.83, optimistic scenario €31.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zalando SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.04, about 13% lower versus a price of €27.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €16.83, optimistic scenario €31.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Zalando SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zalando SE (ZAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zalando SE would have to grow free cash flow by -12.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZAL use?
Our models discount Zalando SE at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.56, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zalando SE that is -12.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zalando SE (ZAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zalando SE grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zalando SE (ZAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zalando SE (-12.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.72 %: that much free cash flow Zalando SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zalando SE it is €24.04 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €27.72. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Zalando SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ZAL trades above its calculated fair value: price €27.72, fair value €24.04, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€27.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.04). For Zalando SE the two are €3.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zalando SE worth?
The market values Zalando SE at about €7.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €27.72; our models calculate a fair value of €24.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZAL?
Our models span a range for Zalando SE: cautious scenario €16.83, base €24.04, optimistic €31.26 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €27.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZAL?
Zalando SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 120.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €24.04 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 92.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.5, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ZAL?
The PEG ratio of Zalando SE is 0.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zalando SE (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZAL from its 52-week high?
Zalando SE trades at €27.72, about 8% below its 52-week high of €30.24 and 45% above the low of €19.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zalando SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zalando SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €27.72, calculated fair value €24.04 (−13%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZAL calculated?
We run Zalando SE through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €24.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Zalando SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €27.72. Our model-based fair value is €24.04, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zalando SE right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€16.83 to €31.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Zalando SE (ZAL) come from?
Earnings per share at Zalando SE grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.1 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zalando SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The market capitalisation of Zalando SE is €7.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zalando SE is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Earnings per share at Zalando SE are €0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 120.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The net margin of Zalando SE is 0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zalando SE is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zalando SE is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zalando SE (ZAL)?
The operating margin of Zalando SE is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Revenue at Zalando SE is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zalando SE (ZAL)?
Earnings per share at Zalando SE are growing −21.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Zalando SE (ZAL) hold?
Zalando SE holds more cash than debt, €436M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026