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China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock ¥2.05, price ¥3.06, that is 33.0% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate CN · ISIN CNE0000000T2

CV China Vanke Co Ltd Class A logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

China Vanke Co Ltd Class A

000002 · SHE

Expensive (fair value 33% below the price), weak company and falling price: meets none of the 3 rules.

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Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −11.0 %/yr in CNY) 
Moderate debt 
Revenue last quarter 38% below a year ago. 
Fair value ¥2.05 · Overvalued 
Quality 28/100 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Loss-making · -47.7% net margin (TTM) 
Negative free cash flow 
Trails peers (3/11) 
Narrow moat 8/100
Thin data 

Main risks:

🚩Dependence on Shenzhen Metro support
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥22.28 ¥2.95 Fair Value ¥2.05 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.95 – ¥22.28 · fair‑value band ¥2.05 – ¥5.24 · the ¥3.06 price screens above the ¥2.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

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The company is involved in the development and sale of residential properties; construction contracts; commercial property operation and asset management; other related services; community residential and consumption services; enterprise and city space services; artificial intelligence; IoT; and business process as a service solution.

It also engages in the provision of property services; rental housing; real estate investment and development; hotel and vacation assets; pig farming; logistics and warehousing; and retail property development and operation.

The company was incorporated in May 30th, 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Stock analysis

China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) currently trades at ¥3.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.05, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: ¥2.05 (bear) to ¥5.24 (bull), the price of ¥3.06 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.

China Vanke Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 233B CNY in FY2025 versus 453B CNY in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −88.6B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 36.5B CNY (≈ $5.5B) Mid · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) ¥−7.10 · Net margin −47.7% · Return on equity −35.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.0% · Revenue (TTM) 177B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at −33%, 000002 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥2.05 Fair Value ¥2.05 Bull ¥5.24
Price ¥3.06 · Downside -33.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA n/a ¥2.05 ¥5.24 61
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.35 ¥5.83 ¥8.70 52
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a ¥2.05 ¥5.24 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.35 ¥5.83 ¥8.70 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 14
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 67
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 16
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 74
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.1% (2020) → −0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

000002 screens overvalued: fair value 33% below the price. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −33.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −8.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −47.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −8.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −37.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.31× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.21× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.27× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)28 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.92 HK$78.45 +162% vs 000002
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.23 ¥10.09 +93% vs 000002
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.19 HK$22.53 +85% vs 000002
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$49.24 HK$72.05 +46% vs 000002
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$110.90 HK$156.00 +41% vs 000002
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.48 ¥5.64 −25% vs 000002
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.38 HK$6.32 −39% vs 000002
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,220 ₹271.92 −78% vs 000002
DLF Limited DLF ₹758.75 ₹167.48 −78% vs 000002
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.22 $1.52 −82% vs 000002

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China Vanke Co Ltd Class A: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Vanke Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000002

Frequently asked questions

Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.05 versus a price of ¥3.06, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000002?
Our model-based fair value for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is ¥2.05 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.06.
What is the quality score of 000002?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.05 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.05, optimistic scenario ¥5.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.05, about 33% lower versus a price of ¥3.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.05, optimistic scenario ¥5.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 177B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Vanke Co Ltd Class A it is ¥2.05 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of ¥3.06. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 000002 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.06, fair value ¥2.05, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000002?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.05). For China Vanke Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥1.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values China Vanke Co Ltd Class A at about 36.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.06; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000002?
Our models span a range for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥2.05, base ¥2.05, optimistic ¥5.24 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price ¥3.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000002?
The PEG ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −35.3%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000002 from its 52-week high?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥3.06, about 51% below its 52-week high of ¥6.28 and 4% above the low of ¥2.95 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Vanke Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price ¥3.06, calculated fair value ¥2.05 (−33%), Quality Score 28/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000002 calculated?
We run China Vanke Co Ltd Class A through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥2.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. China Vanke Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was ¥3.06. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.05, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Vanke Co Ltd Class A right now?
Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥2.05 to ¥5.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) come from?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A grew +0.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A

How large is the market capitalisation of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The market capitalisation of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 36.5B CNY (≈ $5.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A are ¥−7.10. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The net margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −47.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −35.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The operating margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Revenue at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is down 37.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A are down 23.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) generate?
The free cash flow of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −4.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) carry?
The net debt of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 128B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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