China Vanke Co (000002) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 38.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (¥2.05 to ¥5.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.95 – ¥27.83 · fair‑value band ¥2.05 – ¥5.24 · the ¥3.13 price screens above the ¥2.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Vanke Co (000002) currently trades at ¥3.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.05, implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Vanke Co generated revenue of 224B CNY at a net margin of -39.3%. Revenue declined 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -32.8%. Net debt stands at 128B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.05 (bear case) to ¥5.24 (bull case); at ¥3.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -35%, 000002 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥6.57) versus Multiples (¥4.26). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is involved in the development and sale of residential properties; construction contracts; commercial property operation and asset management; other related services; community residential and consumption services; enterprise and city space services; artificial intelligence; IoT; and business process as a service solution. It also engages in the provision of property services; rental housing; real estate investment and development; hotel and vacation assets; pig farming; logistics and warehousing; and retail property development and operation. The company was incorporated in May 30th, 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Vanke Co reported revenue of ¥233B in FY2025 versus ¥453B in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥88.6B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +14.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000002 screens 35% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 593 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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