China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A ¥2.05, price ¥4.26, upside -51.9%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.95 – ¥23.83 · fair‑value band ¥2.05 – ¥5.24 · the ¥4.26 price screens above the ¥2.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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China Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in property development, operation, and management in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is involved in the development and sale of residential properties; construction contracts; commercial property operation and asset management; other related services; community residential and consumption services; enterprise and city space services; artificial intelligence; IoT; and business process as a service solution. It also engages in the provision of property services; rental housing; real estate investment and development; hotel and vacation assets; pig farming; logistics and warehousing; and retail property development and operation. The company was incorporated in May 30th, 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) currently trades at ¥4.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.05, 51.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ¥2.05 (bear) to ¥5.24 (bull), the price of ¥4.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A reported revenue of 233B CNY in FY2025 versus 453B CNY in FY2021, a compound −15.3%/yr. Reported net income was −88.6B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 50.8B CNY (≈ $7.6B) · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) ¥−7.69 · Net margin −37.9% · Return on equity −36.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin −10.9% · Revenue (TTM) 198B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −52%, 000002 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.05Fair Value ¥2.05Bull ¥5.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−22.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.1% (2020) → −0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare China Vanke Co Ltd Class A with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−46.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−10.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−38.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.04× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.27× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 70
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)28· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Vanke Co Ltd Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000002
Frequently asked questions
Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.05 versus a price of ¥4.26, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000002?
Our model-based fair value for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is ¥2.05 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.26.
What is the quality score of 000002?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.05 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.05, optimistic scenario ¥5.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.05, about −52% upside versus a price of ¥4.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.05, optimistic scenario ¥5.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 198B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Vanke Co Ltd Class A it is ¥2.05 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ¥4.26. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 000002 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.26, fair value ¥2.05, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000002?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.05). For China Vanke Co Ltd Class A the two are ¥2.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A worth?
The market values China Vanke Co Ltd Class A at about 50.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.26; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000002?
Our models span a range for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A: cautious scenario ¥2.05, base ¥2.05, optimistic ¥5.24 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ¥4.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000002?
The PEG ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −36.1%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000002 from its 52-week high?
China Vanke Co Ltd Class A trades at ¥4.26, about 38% below its 52-week high of ¥6.89 and 44% above the low of ¥2.95 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Vanke Co Ltd Class A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Vanke Co Ltd Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ¥4.26, calculated fair value ¥2.05 (−52%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000002 calculated?
We run China Vanke Co Ltd Class A through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. China Vanke Co Ltd Class A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥4.26. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.05, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Vanke Co Ltd Class A right now?
Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (¥2.05 to ¥5.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) come from?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A grew +0.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The market capitalisation of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 50.8B CNY (≈ $7.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A are ¥−7.69. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The net margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −37.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −36.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
The operating margin of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Revenue at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is growing −38.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −22.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002)?
Earnings per share at China Vanke Co Ltd Class A are growing −23.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) generate?
The free cash flow of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is −4.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Vanke Co Ltd Class A (000002) carry?
The net debt of China Vanke Co Ltd Class A is 128B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026