Lucky Harvest (002965) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lucky Harvest stock ¥12.45, price ¥23.18, that is 46.3% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.10 – ¥57.43 · fair‑value band ¥9.72 – ¥15.49 · the ¥23.18 price screens above the ¥12.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of precision stamping dies and structural metal parts in China.
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Its products include progressive, transfer, and multiset tools for production of automobile metal structural parts and components; auto parts systems, such as body, battery, electronic, seating, new energy, and heat exchanger systems; CNC sheet metal parts for application in server cases, including communication equipment functional plug boxes or cabinets, charging pile shells, aerospace, and medical equipment, as well as office and electronic equipment structural parts comprising printers, copiers, projectors, etc.; and other products, including aviation products, and aviation and power distribution cabinets.
The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Dongguan City, China.
Stock analysis
Lucky Harvest (002965) currently trades at ¥23.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.45, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥18.13 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥23.18 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.92, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥9.72 (bear) to ¥15.49 (bull), the price of ¥23.18 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lucky Harvest reported revenue of 7.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +35.2%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 6.2B CNY (≈ $923M) Small · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1900 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −46%, 002965 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.72Fair Value ¥12.45Bull¥15.49
Price ¥23.18 · Downside -46.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥11.43¥11.24¥11.4476
EPV¥8.45¥9.37¥10.1574
ROIC Compounder¥8.45¥9.37¥10.1572
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥3.97¥27.70¥38.8763
Lynch FV¥9.76¥13.95¥18.1361
PEG = 1.0¥9.76¥13.95¥18.1357
EPV¥8.45¥9.37¥10.1574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥3.34¥6.24¥8.8667
DDM Multi-Stage¥3.34¥5.59¥6.6467
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥9.20¥12.26¥15.3363
P/S Multiple¥7.45¥9.93¥12.4158
P/B Multiple¥52.00¥69.33¥86.6755
EV/EBIT¥14.42¥18.31¥22.2166
EV/EBITDA¥19.98¥25.73¥31.4767
EV/Revenue¥11.08¥14.65¥18.2254
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.68¥7.09¥8.8754
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥11.43¥11.24¥11.4476
ROIC Compounder¥8.45¥9.37¥10.1572
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥12.69¥18.13¥23.5667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.3% vs −2.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−46.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.44× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.69× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA32.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 69
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lucky Harvest Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002965
Frequently asked questions
Is Lucky Harvest (002965) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.45 versus a price of ¥23.18, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002965?
Our model-based fair value for Lucky Harvest is ¥12.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥23.18.
What is the quality score of 002965?
Lucky Harvest has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.72, optimistic scenario ¥15.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucky Harvest stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.45, about 46% lower versus a price of ¥23.18 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.72, optimistic scenario ¥15.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Lucky Harvest reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Lucky Harvest pay a dividend?
Lucky Harvest currently shows a dividend yield of 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lucky Harvest (002965) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lucky Harvest pays a dividend of ¥0.2 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. The payout ratio is 34.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.9% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.9% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucky Harvest it is ¥12.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥23.18. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lucky Harvest stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 002965 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥23.18, fair value ¥12.45, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002965?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥23.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.45). For Lucky Harvest the two are ¥10.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucky Harvest worth?
The market values Lucky Harvest at about 6.2B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥23.18; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002965?
Our models span a range for Lucky Harvest: cautious scenario ¥9.72, base ¥12.45, optimistic ¥15.49 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥23.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucky Harvest (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002965 from its 52-week high?
Lucky Harvest trades at ¥23.18, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥54.31 and 5% above the low of ¥22.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucky Harvest?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucky Harvest stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥23.18, calculated fair value ¥12.45 (−46%), Quality Score 27/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002965 calculated?
We run Lucky Harvest through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥12.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lucky Harvest itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥23.18. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.45, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucky Harvest right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥15.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Lucky Harvest (002965) come from?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest grew +12.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lucky Harvest
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The market capitalisation of Lucky Harvest is 6.2B CNY (≈ $923M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucky Harvest is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest are ¥−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The dividend yield of Lucky Harvest is 0.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The net margin of Lucky Harvest is −0.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lucky Harvest is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucky Harvest is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The operating margin of Lucky Harvest is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Revenue at Lucky Harvest is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest are growing −89.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lucky Harvest (002965) generate?
The free cash flow of Lucky Harvest is −167M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lucky Harvest (002965) hold?
Lucky Harvest holds more cash than debt, 730M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026