Lucky Harvest (002965) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Lucky Harvest ¥10.42, price ¥32.82, upside -68.3%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.10 – ¥57.43 · fair‑value band ¥9.72 – ¥13.03 · the ¥32.82 price screens above the ¥10.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of precision stamping dies and structural metal parts in China.
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Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of precision stamping dies and structural metal parts in China. Its products include progressive, transfer, and multiset tools for production of automobile metal structural parts and components; auto parts systems, such as body, battery, electronic, seating, new energy, and heat exchanger systems; CNC sheet metal parts for application in server cases, including communication equipment functional plug boxes or cabinets, charging pile shells, aerospace, and medical equipment, as well as office and electronic equipment structural parts comprising printers, copiers, projectors, etc.; and other products, including aviation products, and aviation and power distribution cabinets. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Dongguan City, China.
Stock analysis
Lucky Harvest (002965) currently trades at ¥32.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.42, implying the stock looks roughly 215.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.66 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥32.82 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.26, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥9.72 (bear) to ¥13.03 (bull), the price of ¥32.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lucky Harvest reported revenue of 7.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +35.2%/yr. Reported net income was 155M CNY in FY2025, compounding +24.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 11.4B CNY (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 328.2 · P/S ratio 6.42 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −68%, 002965 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥9.72Fair Value ¥10.42Bull ¥13.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 3%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)328.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.67× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.39× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA53.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)86· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lucky Harvest Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002965
Frequently asked questions
Is Lucky Harvest (002965) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.42 versus a price of ¥32.82, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002965?
Our model-based fair value for Lucky Harvest is ¥10.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥32.82.
What is the quality score of 002965?
Lucky Harvest has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥10.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.72, optimistic scenario ¥13.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucky Harvest stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥10.42, about −68% upside versus a price of ¥32.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.72, optimistic scenario ¥13.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Lucky Harvest reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lucky Harvest pay a dividend?
Lucky Harvest currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucky Harvest it is ¥10.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥32.82. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lucky Harvest stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 002965 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥32.82, fair value ¥10.42, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002965?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥32.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥10.42). For Lucky Harvest the two are ¥22.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucky Harvest worth?
The market values Lucky Harvest at about 11.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥32.82; our models calculate a fair value of ¥10.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002965?
Our models span a range for Lucky Harvest: cautious scenario ¥9.72, base ¥10.42, optimistic ¥13.03 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥32.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002965?
Lucky Harvest trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 328.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥10.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 53.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucky Harvest (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002965 from its 52-week high?
Lucky Harvest trades at ¥32.82, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥54.31 and 21% above the low of ¥27.23 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥10.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucky Harvest?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucky Harvest stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥32.82, calculated fair value ¥10.42 (−68%), Quality Score 29/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002965 calculated?
We run Lucky Harvest through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥10.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lucky Harvest itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥32.82. Our model-based fair value is ¥10.42, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucky Harvest right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Lucky Harvest (002965) come from?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest grew +12.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lucky Harvest
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The market capitalisation of Lucky Harvest is 11.4B CNY (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucky Harvest is 6.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest are ¥0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 328.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The dividend yield of Lucky Harvest is 0.6% (payout 200%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The net margin of Lucky Harvest is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lucky Harvest is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucky Harvest is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucky Harvest (002965)?
The operating margin of Lucky Harvest is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Revenue at Lucky Harvest is growing +17.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lucky Harvest (002965)?
Earnings per share at Lucky Harvest are growing −83.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lucky Harvest (002965) generate?
The free cash flow of Lucky Harvest is −167M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lucky Harvest (002965) hold?
Lucky Harvest holds more cash than debt, 730M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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