China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.65, price HK$0.80, that is 19.0% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6500 – HK$7.32 · fair‑value band HK$0.5853 – HK$0.7072 · the HK$0.8000 price screens above the HK$0.6480 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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China Energy Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in the People's Republic of China.
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The company drills, explores for, develops, exploits, and produces oil and/or natural gas from site located in Xinjiang; transports and sells natural gas; and distributes natural gas through pipelines in the People's Republic of China.
It is also involved in the sale of food and beverages; exploration of oil; and provision of loans to third parties. China Energy Development Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.
China Energy Development Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of ALPHA EAGLE LIMITED.
Stock analysis
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) currently trades at HK$0.8000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6480, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of HK$2.47 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$0.8000 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$0.6100, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5853 (bear) to HK$0.7072 (bull), the price of HK$0.8000 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$234M in FY2025 versus HK$354M in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$25.9M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$365M (≈ $46.5M) Micro · P/E ratio 10.0 · P/S ratio 1.10 · Net margin 11.0% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 25.7% · Revenue (TTM) HK$214M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −19%, 0228 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.5853Fair Value HK$0.6480BullHK$0.7072
Price HK$0.8000 · Downside -19.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$2.10HK$2.71HK$3.8479
Growth DCFHK$2.18HK$2.68HK$3.5278
Owner EarningsHK$1.15HK$1.39HK$1.8376
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$2.10HK$2.71HK$3.8479
Owner EarningsHK$1.15HK$1.39HK$1.8376
5Y Revenue ExitHK$1.39HK$1.60HK$1.9272
5Y EBITDA ExitHK$1.73HK$2.20HK$2.8374
5Y P/E ExitHK$1.46HK$1.73HK$2.0570
10Y Revenue ExitHK$1.65HK$1.83HK$2.0266
10Y EBITDA ExitHK$1.87HK$2.20HK$2.5568
10Y P/E ExitHK$1.70HK$1.91HK$2.1063
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddHK$0.3900HK$0.4700HK$0.530065
EPVHK$1.68HK$1.86HK$2.0374
Multiples
P/E MultipleHK$0.6000HK$0.7900HK$0.990063
P/S MultipleHK$0.4600HK$0.6200HK$0.770058
P/B MultipleHK$3.17HK$4.22HK$5.2855
EV/EBITHK$1.05HK$1.40HK$1.7666
EV/EBITDAHK$1.10HK$1.48HK$1.8567
EV/RevenueHK$0.4100HK$0.6000HK$0.780053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$1.17HK$1.57HK$2.3554
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$2.18HK$2.68HK$3.5278
Rev-Margin DCFHK$1.39HK$1.64HK$1.9772
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeHK$3.00HK$3.08HK$3.2468
ROIC CompounderHK$1.68HK$1.86HK$2.0370
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EHK$0.4300HK$0.6100HK$0.800065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +41.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 28%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.8% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−19.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−17.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Energy Development Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0228
Frequently asked questions
Is China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6480 versus a price of HK$0.8000, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0228?
Our model-based fair value for China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is HK$0.6480 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.8000.
What is the quality score of 0228?
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.6480 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5853, optimistic scenario HK$0.7072. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Energy Development Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.6480, about 19% lower versus a price of HK$0.8000 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5853, optimistic scenario HK$0.7072. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$214M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Energy Development Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.2 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0228 use?
Our models discount China Energy Development Holdings Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Energy Development Holdings Ltd that is -13.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Energy Development Holdings Ltd grew +6.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -13.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (-13.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.71 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow China Energy Development Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Energy Development Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.6480 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of HK$0.8000. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is China Energy Development Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 0228 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.8000, fair value HK$0.6480, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0228?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.8000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.6480). For China Energy Development Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.1520 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Energy Development Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values China Energy Development Holdings Ltd at about HK$365M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.8000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.6480 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0228?
Our models span a range for China Energy Development Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5853, base HK$0.6480, optimistic HK$0.7072 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price HK$0.8000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0228?
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.6480 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0228 from its 52-week high?
China Energy Development Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.8000, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$1.98 and 23% above the low of HK$0.6500 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.6480 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Energy Development Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Energy Development Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price HK$0.8000, calculated fair value HK$0.6480 (−19%), Quality Score 41/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0228 calculated?
We run China Energy Development Holdings Ltd through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.6480 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China Energy Development Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$0.8000. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.6480, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Energy Development Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.7072). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The market capitalisation of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is HK$365M (≈ $46.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is 1.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The net margin of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is 11.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
The operating margin of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
Revenue at China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is growing −17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228)?
Earnings per share at China Energy Development Holdings Ltd are growing +1.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (0228) carry?
The net debt of China Energy Development Holdings Ltd is HK$7.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026