EN DE

China Energy Development Holdings (0228) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$575M

CE China Energy Development Holdings 0228 · HK
PriceHK$1.13
Fair ValueHK$0.5957
Upside-47.3%
Quality49/100
Watch China Energy Development Holdings for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.5434 – HK$0.6375 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −6.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.6375). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.32 HK$1.10 Fair Value HK$0.5957 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.10 – HK$7.32 · fair‑value band HK$0.5434 – HK$0.6375 · the HK$1.13 price screens above the HK$0.5957 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

China Energy Development Holdings (0228) currently trades at HK$1.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5957, implying the stock looks roughly 47.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Energy Development Holdings generated revenue of HK$234M at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue declined 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.2%. Net debt stands at HK$7.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.5434 (bear case) to HK$0.6375 (bull case); at HK$1.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -47%, 0228 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.14 HK$3.31 HK$5.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.48 HK$2.01 HK$3.14 74
ROIC Compounder HK$1.50 HK$1.63 HK$1.74 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$2.25 HK$3.03 HK$5.38 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.92 HK$3.41 HK$6.18 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.41 HK$1.83 HK$2.69 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.63 HK$4.31 HK$7.59 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.73 HK$2.94 HK$4.55 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.68 HK$2.54 HK$2.95 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.51 HK$4.96 HK$9.23 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.91 HK$3.19 HK$5.18 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.3900 HK$2.69 HK$3.77 54
Lynch FV HK$1.39 HK$1.99 HK$2.58 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$1.39 HK$1.99 HK$2.58 46
EPV HK$1.50 HK$1.63 HK$1.74 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.9400 HK$1.25 HK$1.56 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.4600 HK$0.6200 HK$0.7700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.7200 HK$0.9600 HK$1.21 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.45 HK$3.09 HK$3.73 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.78 HK$3.53 HK$4.27 54
EV/Revenue HK$0.9700 HK$1.15 HK$1.34 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$2.33 HK$3.13 HK$4.67 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.14 HK$3.31 HK$5.14 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.48 HK$2.01 HK$3.14 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$3.01 HK$2.74 HK$1.86 61
ROIC Compounder HK$1.50 HK$1.63 HK$1.74 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.84 HK$2.64 HK$3.43 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$3.13) versus Multiples (HK$1.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when 0228 reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$234M
Revenue growth (YoY) -14.1%
Net margin 11.1%
Return on equity 1.2%
Free cash flow HK$57.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 15.8
More key figures
Operating margin 28.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -69.8%
Net debt HK$7.8M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 15
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Energy Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

China Energy Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in the People's Republic of China. The company drills, explores for, develops, exploits, and produces oil and/or natural gas from site located in Xinjiang; transports and sells natural gas; and distributes natural gas through pipelines in the People's Republic of China. It is also involved in the sale of food and beverages; exploration of oil; and provision of loans to third parties. China Energy Development Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong. China Energy Development Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of ALPHA EAGLE LIMITED.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Energy Development Holdings reported revenue of HK$234M in FY2025 versus HK$354M in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$25.9M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$234M
Latest YoY
−21.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.1%
Revenue −9.8%/yr
FY21 HK$354M
FY22 HK$323M
FY23 HK$332M
FY24 HK$300M
FY25 HK$234M
Net income −32.4%/yr
FY21 HK$124M
FY22 HK$83.3M
FY23 HK$69.5M
FY24 HK$27.3M
FY25 HK$25.9M

0228 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

China Energy Development Holdings · Fair Value
HK$0.5957 −47%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Energy Development Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0228

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 29% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -14% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.27× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.45× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 13
FUTURE 0 · sector 7
PAST 5 · sector 45
HEALTH 99 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 79

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 26.72 SAR 20.14 SAR -25%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $144.51 $90.37 -37%
Chevron Corporation CHEV C$22.88 C$7.97 -65%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥10.29 ¥16.51 +60%
Shell plc SHELL €38.04 €46.09 +21%
TotalEnergies SE TTE C$13.80 C$7.92 -43%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 12,540 ARS 30,914 ARS +147%
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP $40.83 $12.71 -69%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.03 ¥4.46 -11%
Equinor ASA EQNR $36.19 $34.53 -5%

Compare China Energy Development Holdings with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Energy stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is China Energy Development Holdings (0228) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5957 versus a price of HK$1.13, about −47% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0228?
Our model-based fair value for China Energy Development Holdings is HK$0.5957 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.13.
What is the quality score of 0228?
China Energy Development Holdings has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Energy Development Holdings (0228)?
China Energy Development Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$234M (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0228?
The net profit margin of China Energy Development Holdings is about 11.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track China Energy Development Holdings and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.