China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd stock HK$0.34, price HK$0.31, upside +11.5%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1440 – HK$1.56 · fair‑value band HK$0.2800 – HK$0.4000 · the HK$0.3050 price screens below the HK$0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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China Tontine Wines Group Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells grape wine in the People's Republic of China. It offers sweet wines and dry wines under the Tongtian, Tongtian Hong, and TONTINE labels.
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The company also produces and sells brandy, white wines, and other wine products, as well as processes grape juices. China Tontine Wines Group Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tonghua, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) currently trades at HK$0.3050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 10% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$1.27 per share, and 9 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.3050 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1900, and 5 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2800 (bear) to HK$0.4000 (bull), the price of HK$0.3050 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd reported revenue of 159M CNY in FY2025 versus 208M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −843K CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$92.0M (≈ $11.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.52 · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1.6% · Revenue (TTM) 174M CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) +25.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 11%, 0389 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.2800Fair Value HK$0.3400BullHK$0.4000
Price HK$0.3050 · Upside +11.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.9% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−124.3% (2020) → 2.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−39.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −40.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 90 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Tontine Wines Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0389
Frequently asked questions
Is China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3400 versus a price of HK$0.3050, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0389?
Our model-based fair value for China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is HK$0.3400 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.3050.
What is the quality score of 0389?
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3400 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2800, optimistic scenario HK$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Tontine Wines Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3400, about +11% upside versus a price of HK$0.3050 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2800, optimistic scenario HK$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 174M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Tontine Wines Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -39.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0389 use?
Our models discount China Tontine Wines Group Ltd at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Tontine Wines Group Ltd that is -39.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Tontine Wines Group Ltd grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -39.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (-39.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 42.41 %: that much free cash flow China Tontine Wines Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Tontine Wines Group Ltd it is HK$0.3400 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of HK$0.3050. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is China Tontine Wines Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 0389 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.3050, fair value HK$0.3400, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0389?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.3050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3400). For China Tontine Wines Group Ltd the two are HK$0.0350 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Tontine Wines Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Tontine Wines Group Ltd at about HK$92.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.3050; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0389?
Our models span a range for China Tontine Wines Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2800, base HK$0.3400, optimistic HK$0.4000 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price HK$0.3050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −2.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0389 from its 52-week high?
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd trades at HK$0.3050, about 45% below its 52-week high of HK$0.5500 and 112% above the low of HK$0.1440 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Tontine Wines Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Tontine Wines Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price HK$0.3050, calculated fair value HK$0.3400 (+11%), Quality Score 73/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0389 calculated?
We run China Tontine Wines Group Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.3400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China Tontine Wines Group Ltd currently trades 10% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$0.3050. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3400, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Tontine Wines Group Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The market capitalisation of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is HK$92.0M (≈ $11.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The net margin of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is −20.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
The operating margin of China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is −1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
Revenue at China Tontine Wines Group Ltd is growing +25.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389)?
Earnings per share at China Tontine Wines Group Ltd are growing −66.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) hold?
China Tontine Wines Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 27.1M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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