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Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock HK$1.50, price HK$0.60, upside +150.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate HK · ISIN KYG5342X1227

LF Lai Fung Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd

1125 · HK

Cheap (60% below fair value) and solid company, but falling price: meets 2 of 3 rules.

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Fair value HK$1.50 · Strongly undervalued 
Low debt 
Generates free cash flow 
Quality 52/100 
Revenue last quarter 10% below a year ago. 
Changed on Oct 24: HK$1.88 → HK$1.58 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −13.0 %/yr in HKD) 
Loss-making · -39.2% net margin (TTM) 
Trails peers (4/11) 
Narrow moat 14/100
Thin data 
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$7.06 HK$0.5500 Fair Value HK$1.50 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5500 – HK$7.06 · fair‑value band HK$0.5440 – HK$2.90 · the HK$0.6000 price screens below the HK$1.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation.

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The company develops properties for sale; invests in commercial and office buildings; and provides building management services.

It is also involved in operation of hotels and serviced apartments; development and operation of theme parks; and invests in, develops, and operates cultural, leisure, and entertainment and related facilities. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.

Lai Fung Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Lai Sun Development Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) currently trades at HK$0.6000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.50, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$10.84 per share, and 8 of the 8 models we run sit above the HK$0.6000 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$10.22, and 0 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5440 (bear) to HK$2.90 (bull), the price of HK$0.6000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.6B in FY2026 versus HK$2.5B in FY2022, a compound −10.8%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$592M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$199M (≈ $25.3M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.7700 · Net margin −37.1% · Return on equity −4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.2% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 150%, 1125 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5440 Fair Value HK$1.50 Bull HK$2.90
Price HK$0.6000 · Upside +150.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF HK$6.22 HK$17.99 HK$36.06 74
Growth DCF HK$6.09 HK$16.79 HK$32.50 73
5Y Revenue Exit n/a HK$3.51 HK$9.83 69
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$6.22 HK$17.99 HK$36.06 74
5Y Revenue Exit n/a HK$3.51 HK$9.83 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.14 HK$10.84 HK$21.33 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.03 HK$6.47 HK$13.92 60
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.47 HK$11.47 HK$22.78 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$18.17 HK$24.34 HK$36.33 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$6.09 HK$16.79 HK$32.50 73
Rev-Margin DCF n/a HK$3.65 HK$10.18 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 3
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 81
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 34
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 12
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 5
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 29/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.5% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
89.3% (2019) → 17.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +150.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −39.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −9.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.43× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (12 months) 0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 0.7× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 21.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.92 HK$78.45 +162% vs 1125
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.23 ¥10.09 +93% vs 1125
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.19 HK$22.53 +85% vs 1125
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$49.24 HK$72.05 +46% vs 1125
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$110.90 HK$156.00 +41% vs 1125
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.48 ¥5.64 −25% vs 1125
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.38 HK$6.32 −39% vs 1125
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,220 ₹271.92 −78% vs 1125
DLF Limited DLF ₹758.75 ₹167.48 −78% vs 1125
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.22 $1.52 −82% vs 1125

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Lai Fung Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lai Fung Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1125

Frequently asked questions

Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.50 versus the last price from Nov 5, 2026 of HK$0.6000, about +150% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1125?
Our model-based fair value for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$1.50 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Nov 5, 2026): HK$0.6000.
What is the quality score of 1125?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.50 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5440, optimistic scenario HK$2.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.50, about +150% upside versus the last price from Nov 5, 2026 of HK$0.6000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5440, optimistic scenario HK$2.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lai Fung Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.50 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of HK$0.6000. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, 1125 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.6000, fair value HK$1.50, a gap of about +150% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1125?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.6000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.50). For Lai Fung Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Lai Fung Holdings Ltd at about HK$199M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.6000; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1125?
Our models span a range for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5440, base HK$1.50, optimistic HK$2.90 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price HK$0.6000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −4.8%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1125 from its 52-week high?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.6000, about 45% below its 52-week high of HK$1.10 and 9% above the low of HK$0.5500 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lai Fung Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price HK$0.6000, calculated fair value HK$1.50 (+150%), Quality Score 52/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1125 calculated?
We run Lai Fung Holdings Ltd through 8 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$1.50 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Lai Fung Holdings Ltd currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The latest price we hold is from Nov 5, 2026 and stands at HK$0.6000. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.50, about +150% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lai Fung Holdings Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.5440 to HK$2.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$199M (≈ $25.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.7700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is −37.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is −4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Revenue at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is down 9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd are down 26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) generate?
The free cash flow of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$292M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) carry?
The net debt of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$8.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 30.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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