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Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd HK$1.88, price HK$0.75, upside +150.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Real Estate · HK · ISIN KYG5342X1227

LF Lai Fung Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Sep 29, 2026

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd

1125 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$1.88 · Strongly undervalued (+150.7%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -40.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 17/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$0.5260 to HK$3.83
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$7.68 HK$0.6700 Fair Value HK$1.88 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6700 – HK$7.68 · fair‑value band HK$0.5260 – HK$3.83 · the HK$0.7500 price screens below the HK$1.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation.

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Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation. The company develops properties for sale; invests in commercial and office buildings; and provides building management services. It is also involved in operation of hotels and serviced apartments; development and operation of theme parks; and invests in, develops, and operates cultural, leisure, and entertainment and related facilities. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Lai Fung Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Lai Sun Development Company Limited.

Stock analysis

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) currently trades at HK$0.7500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.88, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$9.56 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$0.7500 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.84, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.5260 (bear) to HK$3.83 (bull), the price of HK$0.7500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Lai Fung Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$3.2B in FY2021, a compound −20.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$419M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$248M (≈ $31.6M) · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) HK$−1.54 · Net margin −32.5% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 12.6% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 151%, 1125 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.5260 Fair Value HK$1.88 Bull HK$3.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$5.29 HK$17.84 HK$37.90 73
Growth DCF HK$5.26 HK$17.01 HK$35.25 72
5Y Revenue Exit n/a HK$2.09 >HK$8.36 69
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$5.29 HK$17.84 HK$37.90 73
5Y Revenue Exit n/a HK$2.09 >HK$8.36 69
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.8500 HK$9.56 HK$20.02 67
10Y Revenue Exit n/a HK$5.16 HK$12.62 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.26 HK$10.40 HK$21.84 62
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a HK$1.84 HK$5.61 61
EV/EBITDA n/a HK$4.05 HK$8.38 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$18.17 HK$24.35 HK$36.34 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$5.26 HK$17.01 HK$35.25 72
Rev-Margin DCF n/a HK$2.24 HK$8.68 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−41.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.8% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
89.3% (2019) → 17.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 574 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +150.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −40.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.45× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 17.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$46.00 HK$71.49 +55%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹683.00 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.56 ¥5.87 +6%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 HK$19.39 HK$8.31 −57%
CTP N.V CTPNV €12.90 €10.46 −19%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lai Fung Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1125

Frequently asked questions

Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.88 versus a price of HK$0.7500, about +151% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1125?
Our model-based fair value for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$1.88 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.7500.
What is the quality score of 1125?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.88 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.5260, optimistic scenario HK$3.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.88, about +151% upside versus a price of HK$0.7500 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.5260, optimistic scenario HK$3.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lai Fung Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.88 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.7500. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 1125 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.7500, fair value HK$1.88, a gap of about +151% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1125?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.7500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.88). For Lai Fung Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Lai Fung Holdings Ltd at about HK$248M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.7500; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1125?
Our models span a range for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.5260, base HK$1.88, optimistic HK$3.83 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.7500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1125 from its 52-week high?
Lai Fung Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.7500, about 32% below its 52-week high of HK$1.10 and 12% above the low of HK$0.6700 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lai Fung Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lai Fung Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.7500, calculated fair value HK$1.88 (+151%), Quality Score 51/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1125 calculated?
We run Lai Fung Holdings Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Lai Fung Holdings Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.7500. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.88, about +151% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lai Fung Holdings Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.5260 to HK$3.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The market capitalisation of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$248M (≈ $31.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is 0.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd are HK$−1.54. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The net margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is −32.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
The operating margin of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Revenue at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is growing +43.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125)?
Earnings per share at Lai Fung Holdings Ltd are growing −26.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) generate?
The free cash flow of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$292M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lai Fung Holdings Ltd (1125) carry?
The net debt of Lai Fung Holdings Ltd is HK$9.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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