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Lai Fung Holdings (1125) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$248M

LF Lai Fung Holdings 1125 · HK
PriceHK$0.6850
Fair ValueHK$1.80
Upside+162.8%
Quality51/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -40.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$1.80 – HK$1.80 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −6.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 163% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$7.68 HK$0.6750 Fair Value HK$1.80 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6750 – HK$7.68 · the HK$0.6850 price screens below the HK$1.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Lai Fung Holdings (1125) currently trades at HK$0.6850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.80, implying the stock looks roughly 162.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Lai Fung Holdings generated revenue of HK$1.6B at a net margin of -40.7%. Revenue grew 43.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.6%. Net debt stands at HK$9.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 163%, 1125 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$2.80 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.45 74
EV/EBITDA HK$4.05 HK$8.38 54
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$4.29 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.66 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.02 HK$12.82 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.19 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.26 HK$9.21 37
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$1.84 HK$5.61 53
EV/EBITDA HK$4.05 HK$8.38 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$18.17 HK$24.35 HK$36.34 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$2.80 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.45 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$24.35) versus DCF Models (HK$1.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) +43.0%
Net margin -40.7%
Return on equity -5.6%
Free cash flow HK$292M FY2025
Operating margin 12.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-1.54
EPS growth (YoY) -26.9%
Net debt HK$9.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation.

Full company description

Lai Fung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development and investment businesses. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Hotel and Serviced Apartment Operation, and Theme Park Operation. The company develops properties for sale; invests in commercial and office buildings; and provides building management services. It is also involved in operation of hotels and serviced apartments; development and operation of theme parks; and invests in, develops, and operates cultural, leisure, and entertainment and related facilities. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Lai Fung Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Lai Sun Development Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lai Fung Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$3.2B in FY2021, a compound −20.3%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$419M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 31/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.3B
Latest YoY
−41.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−19.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Revenue −20.3%/yr
FY21 HK$3.2B
FY22 HK$2.5B
FY23 HK$1.8B
FY24 HK$2.2B
FY25 HK$1.3B
Net income
FY21 −HK$676M
FY22 −HK$284M
FY23 −HK$585M
FY24 −HK$268M
FY25 −HK$419M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lai Fung Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1125

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 593 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +163% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -41% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 43% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.45× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 17.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 47
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 10
HEALTH 77 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 58

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹661.75 ₹146.13 -78%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,209 ₹583.43 -52%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,150 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 595.00 IDR 1,488 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 73.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +15%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 610.00 IDR 1,525 IDR +150%
Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH 18,150 VND 20,338 VND +12%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,300 IDR 6,239 IDR +45%
PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS 147.00 IDR 164.33 IDR +12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lai Fung Holdings (1125) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.80 versus a price of HK$0.6850, about +163% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1125?
Our model-based fair value for Lai Fung Holdings is HK$1.80 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.6850.
What is the quality score of 1125?
Lai Fung Holdings has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lai Fung Holdings (1125)?
Lai Fung Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1125?
The net profit margin of Lai Fung Holdings is about -40.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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