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Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.35, price HK$0.14, upside +154.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG720051047

PR Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd

1238 · HK

Cheap (61% below fair value), but weak company and falling price: meets 1 of 3 rules.

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Fair value HK$0.3480 · Strongly undervalued 
Generates free cash flow 
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 26% above the price (HK$0.1720). 
Quality 46/100 
Moderate debt 
Mixed vs. peers (5/11) 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.6 %/yr in CNY) 
Loss-making · -21.8% net margin (TTM) 
Narrow moat 29/100 · thin data
Thin data 
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.06 HK$0.1360 Fair Value HK$0.3480 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1360 – HK$6.06 · fair‑value band HK$0.1720 – HK$0.5350 · the HK$0.1370 price screens below the HK$0.3480 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, operates, and manages commercial real estate projects in the People's Republic of China.

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The company operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Commercial Operation and Residential Property Management, and Other Property Development Related Businesses.

It develops commercial and residential properties; and owns and operates property development projects developed by group and third parties. The company is also involved in property investments mainly shopping malls, as well as hotel operations.

Further, the company offers commercial operational services, including market positioning and business tenant sourcing services, commercial operation and management services and other value-added services; residential property management services such as pre-sale management service, property management service and community value-added services.

In addition, it owns and manages international branded hotels and self-owned branded chain hotels. The company was founded in 1990 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238) currently trades at HK$0.1370, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3480, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1720 (bear) to HK$0.5350 (bull), the price of HK$0.1370 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 22.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 39.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −5.9B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$567M (≈ $72.3M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.04 · Net margin −26.0% · Return on equity −11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 30.0% · Revenue (TTM) 17.6B CNY · Revenue growth (YoY) −38.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 154%, 1238 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1720 Fair Value HK$0.3480 Bull HK$0.5350
Price HK$0.1370 · Upside +154.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF HK$5.36 HK$9.91 HK$15.96 78
Growth DCF HK$5.17 HK$9.04 HK$13.79 77
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.22 HK$8.95 HK$15.16 70
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$5.36 HK$9.91 HK$15.96 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.22 HK$8.95 HK$15.16 70
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.44 HK$8.44 HK$14.18 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue n/a n/a HK$0.0200 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.54 HK$4.75 HK$7.09 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$5.17 HK$9.04 HK$13.79 77
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.22 HK$8.95 HK$15.03 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 2
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 71
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 25
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.3% (2019) → −20.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +154.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −21.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 30.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −38.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.78× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (12 months) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 0.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)61 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$29.92 HK$78.45 +162% vs 1238
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.23 ¥10.09 +93% vs 1238
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.19 HK$22.53 +85% vs 1238
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$49.24 HK$72.05 +46% vs 1238
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$110.90 HK$156.00 +41% vs 1238
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.48 ¥5.64 −25% vs 1238
Sino Land Company 0083 HK$10.38 HK$6.32 −39% vs 1238
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,220 ₹271.92 −78% vs 1238
DLF Limited DLF ₹758.75 ₹167.48 −78% vs 1238
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.22 $1.52 −82% vs 1238

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Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1238

Frequently asked questions

Is Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3480 versus a price of HK$0.1370, about +154% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1238?
Our model-based fair value for Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is HK$0.3480 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.1370.
What is the quality score of 1238?
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3480 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1720, optimistic scenario HK$0.5350. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3480, about +154% upside versus a price of HK$0.1370 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1720, optimistic scenario HK$0.5350. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.3480 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$0.1370. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 1238 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.1370, fair value HK$0.3480, a gap of about +154% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1238?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.1370); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3480). For Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2110 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd at about HK$567M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.1370; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3480 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1238?
Our models span a range for Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1720, base HK$0.3480, optimistic HK$0.5350 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$0.1370). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Balance-sheet figures for Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −11.5%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1238 from its 52-week high?
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.1370, about 54% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2950 and 1% above the low of HK$0.1360 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3480 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$0.1370, calculated fair value HK$0.3480 (+154%), Quality Score 46/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1238 calculated?
We run Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.3480 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.1370. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3480, about +154% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (46/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1720). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.1720 to HK$0.5350). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The market capitalisation of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is HK$567M (≈ $72.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The net margin of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is −26.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is −11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
The operating margin of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Revenue at Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is down 38.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238)?
Earnings per share at Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd are down 86.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238) generate?
The free cash flow of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is 2.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd (1238) carry?
The net debt of Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd is 48.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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