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Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock HK$1.48, price HK$2.95, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services HK · ISIN HK0000065869

GJ Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 5, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd

1788 · HK
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +186.9 %/yr in HKD)
Highly profitable · 33.0% net margin (TTM)
0.7% dividend yield · Low payout
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +30% vs. a year ago.
Quality 58/100
Moderate moat 61/100 · thin data
Fair value HK$1.48 · Strongly overvalued
Trails peers (5/14)
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.62 HK$0.4516 Fair Value HK$1.48 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.4516 – HK$6.62 · fair‑value band HK$1.19 – HK$1.72 · the HK$2.95 price screens above the HK$1.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, market making, and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally.

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It operates through Wealth Management, Institutional Investor Services, Corporate Finance Services, Investment Management, and Other segments.

The Wealth Management segment provides various financial services and solutions to individual investors, small to medium-sized businesses, and family office, including brokerage, loans and financing, and other wealth management services.

The Institutional Investor Services segment offers market making, investments, structured product solutions, financing and other services to corporations, governments, and financial institutions, as well as group investments to support other services.

The Corporate Finance segment provides advisory services, placing and underwriting services of debt and equity securities. The Investment Management segment offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and invests in funds, debts, and equity securities.

The Other segment provides rental income and provision of information channel services.

It also provides general administration and support services; securities brokerage and other financial services; securities and futures dealing and broking; consultancy; investments and provision of structured product solutions and other services; leveraged foreign exchange dealing and broking; and margin financing, as well as trades in securities.

The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guotai Haitong Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) currently trades at HK$2.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.48, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$1.58 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$2.95 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.09, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$1.19 (bear) to HK$1.72 (bull), the price of HK$2.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.2B in FY2025 versus HK$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$28.1B (≈ $3.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 19.0 · P/S ratio 4.11 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 21.7% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 39.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −50%, 1788 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.19 Fair Value HK$1.48 Bull HK$1.72
Price HK$2.95 · Downside -49.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income HK$1.38 HK$1.48 HK$1.65 76
Gordon GGM HK$0.6000 HK$1.16 HK$1.72 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6000 HK$1.02 HK$1.23 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.6000 HK$1.16 HK$1.72 67
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6000 HK$1.02 HK$1.23 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.38 HK$1.84 HK$2.29 63
P/B Multiple HK$0.9900 HK$1.32 HK$1.65 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8300 HK$1.11 HK$1.66 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.38 HK$1.48 HK$1.65 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 99
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 16
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 40
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 57
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 30
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.8% vs −0.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 66%
2025 sits 570% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

1788 screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (61 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −49.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.3% · Below median
Return on assets 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 33.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 39.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 30.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.66× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 6.31× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 11.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 68
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)14 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $181.44 $260.72 +44% vs 1788
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $91.49 $117.60 +29% vs 1788
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs 1788
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.42 $10.17 +8% vs 1788
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $865.82 $766.86 −11% vs 1788
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs 1788
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $80.91 $47.60 −41% vs 1788
Macquarie Group MQG A$247.94 A$123.84 −50% vs 1788
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs 1788
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $75.82 $17.48 −77% vs 1788

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1788

Frequently asked questions

Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.48 versus a price of HK$2.95, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1788?
Our model-based fair value for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$1.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.95.
What is the quality score of 1788?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.48 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.19, optimistic scenario HK$1.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.48, about 50% lower versus a price of HK$2.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.19, optimistic scenario HK$1.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.02 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was May 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 14.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.48 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of HK$2.95. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 1788 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.95, fair value HK$1.48, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1788?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.48). For Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd at about HK$28.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.95; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1788?
Our models span a range for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.19, base HK$1.48, optimistic HK$1.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price HK$2.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1788?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.5. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 7.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1788 from its 52-week high?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.95, about 4% below its 52-week high of HK$3.07 and 52% above the low of HK$1.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price HK$2.95, calculated fair value HK$1.48 (−50%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1788 calculated?
We run Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$1.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$2.95. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.48, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) come from?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd grew −8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The market capitalisation of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$28.1B (≈ $3.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 4.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The dividend yield of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The net margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 21.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The operating margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 39.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Revenue at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is growing +30.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) generate?
The free cash flow of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$2.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) carry?
The net debt of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$92.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 36.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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