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Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd HK$1.41, price HK$2.91, upside -51.6%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · HK · ISIN HK0000065869

GJ Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd

1788 · HK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value HK$1.41 · Strongly overvalued (−52%)
!Quality 57/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +186.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.41% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 67/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.62 HK$0.4516 Fair Value HK$1.41 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.4516 – HK$6.62 · fair‑value band HK$1.06 – HK$1.77 · the HK$2.91 price screens above the HK$1.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, market making, and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally.

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, market making, and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates through Wealth Management, Institutional Investor Services, Corporate Finance Services, Investment Management, and Other segments. The Wealth Management segment provides various financial services and solutions to individual investors, small to medium-sized businesses, and family office, including brokerage, loans and financing, and other wealth management services. The Institutional Investor Services segment offers market making, investments, structured product solutions, financing and other services to corporations, governments, and financial institutions, as well as group investments to support other services. The Corporate Finance segment provides advisory services, placing and underwriting services of debt and equity securities. The Investment Management segment offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and invests in funds, debts, and equity securities. The Other segment provides rental income and provision of information channel services. It also provides general administration and support services; securities brokerage and other financial services; securities and futures dealing and broking; consultancy; investments and provision of structured product solutions and other services; leveraged foreign exchange dealing and broking; and margin financing, as well as trades in securities. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guotai Haitong Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) currently trades at HK$2.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.41, implying the stock looks roughly 106.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$1.06 (bear) to HK$1.77 (bull), the price of HK$2.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$6.2B in FY2025 versus HK$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$27.7B (≈ $3.5B) · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 3.12 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 21.7% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −52%, 1788 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.06 Fair Value HK$1.41 Bull HK$1.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple HK$1.06 HK$1.41 HK$1.77 55
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8300 HK$1.11 HK$1.66 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple HK$1.06 HK$1.41 HK$1.77 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.8300 HK$1.11 HK$1.66 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 99
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 66%
2025 sits 570% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price.

1788 screens 106% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 458 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −52% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 34% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 49% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 112% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.66× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.99× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 85
PAST (return on equity)35 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)67 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)48 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $200.18 $312.73 +56%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $949.49 $756.89 −20%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.50 $117.26 +18%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $91.88 $23.37 −75%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $122.70 $47.73 −61%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.55 A$80.51 −67%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.41 −106%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1788

Frequently asked questions

Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.41 versus a price of HK$2.91, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 1788?
Our model-based fair value for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$1.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.91.
What is the quality score of 1788?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.06, optimistic scenario HK$1.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.41, about −52% upside versus a price of HK$2.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.06, optimistic scenario HK$1.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$4.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1788 use?
Our models discount Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.22 %: that much free cash flow Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.91. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 1788 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$2.91, fair value HK$1.41, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1788?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.41). For Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd at about HK$27.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.91; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1788?
Our models span a range for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.06, base HK$1.41, optimistic HK$1.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1788?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1788 from its 52-week high?
Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd trades at HK$2.91, about 36% below its 52-week high of HK$4.54 and 50% above the low of HK$1.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.91, calculated fair value HK$1.41 (−52%), Quality Score 57/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1788 calculated?
We run Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.91. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.41, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$1.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) come from?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd grew −8.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The market capitalisation of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$27.7B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 3.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd are HK$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The dividend yield of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 2.4% (payout 117%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The net margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 21.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
The operating margin of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is 48.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Revenue at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is growing +112% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788)?
Earnings per share at Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd are growing +434% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd (1788) carry?
The net debt of Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd is HK$92.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 36.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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