Guotai Junan International Holdings (1788) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$19.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 5, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +42.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 18% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4516 – HK$6.62 · fair‑value band HK$1.75 – HK$2.91 · the HK$2.85 price screens above the HK$2.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 5, 2026.
Analysis
Guotai Junan International Holdings (1788) currently trades at HK$2.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.33, implying the stock looks roughly 18.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guotai Junan International Holdings generated revenue of HK$4.0B at a net margin of 34.0%. Revenue grew 111.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.7%. Net debt stands at HK$92.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$1.75 (bear case) to HK$2.91 (bull case); at HK$2.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -18%, 1788 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$1.41) versus Asset-Based (HK$1.11). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, market making, and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally.
Full company description
Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides brokerage, corporate finance, asset management, loans and financing, financial products, market making, and investment services in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates through Wealth Management, Institutional Investor Services, Corporate Finance Services, Investment Management, and Other segments. The Wealth Management segment provides various financial services and solutions to individual investors, small to medium-sized businesses, and family office, including brokerage, loans and financing, and other wealth management services. The Institutional Investor Services segment offers market making, investments, structured product solutions, financing and other services to corporations, governments, and financial institutions, as well as group investments to support other services. The Corporate Finance segment provides advisory services, placing and underwriting services of debt and equity securities. The Investment Management segment offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and invests in funds, debts, and equity securities. The Other segment provides rental income and provision of information channel services. It also provides general administration and support services; securities brokerage and other financial services; securities and futures dealing and broking; consultancy; investments and provision of structured product solutions and other services; leveraged foreign exchange dealing and broking; and margin financing, as well as trades in securities. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guotai Haitong Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guotai Junan International Holdings reported revenue of HK$6.2B in FY2025 versus HK$4.0B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +5.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −4.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1788 screens 18% overvalued. Compare with Huatai Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 423 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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