Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp stock ¥4.10, price ¥16.72, that is 75.5% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.94 – ¥46.39 · fair‑value band ¥3.37 – ¥5.95 · the ¥16.72 price screens above the ¥4.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corporation, together with its subsidiary, Chengdu Tangan Aviation Manufacturing Co., Ltd., researches, designs, develops, manufactures and sells military and civil aircraft parts, aero-engine parts, and aerospace large structural parts in China.
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The company also offers precision machining parts; special process products; assembly parts, such as bush, bearing and spline, and structural parts; and engine products, including fan case, intermediate case, and outer duct case on combustion chamber.
In addition, it provides mounting vehicles, electromechanical simulators, jacks, and other ground support equipment. Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corporation was founded in 2004 and is based in Chengdu, China.
Stock analysis
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) currently trades at ¥16.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.10, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥5.02 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥16.72 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥3.26, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥3.37 (bear) to ¥5.95 (bull), the price of ¥16.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp reported revenue of 500M CNY in FY2025 versus 614M CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 55.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −31.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.9B CNY (≈ $736M) Small · P/S ratio 11.6 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −31.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −75%, 300696 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.0100 to ¥28.54). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥3.37Fair Value ¥4.10Bull¥5.95
Price ¥16.72 · Downside -75.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+66.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.1% vs −3.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.8% a year for the price.
Compare Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−75.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−31.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−45.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
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Is Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.10 versus a price of ¥16.72, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300696?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is ¥4.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.72.
What is the quality score of 300696?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.37, optimistic scenario ¥5.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.10, about 75% lower versus a price of ¥16.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.37, optimistic scenario ¥5.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 437M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp pay a dividend?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp pays a dividend of ¥0.068 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 10, 2026. The payout ratio is 36.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.32 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +46.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300696 use?
Our models discount Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.15, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp that is +46.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +46.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (+46.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp it is ¥4.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥16.72. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 300696 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.72, fair value ¥4.10, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300696?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.10). For Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp the two are ¥12.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp worth?
The market values Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp at about 4.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.72; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300696?
Our models span a range for Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp: cautious scenario ¥3.37, base ¥4.10, optimistic ¥5.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥16.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300696 from its 52-week high?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp trades at ¥16.72, about 61% below its 52-week high of ¥43.10 and 4% above the low of ¥16.05 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥16.72, calculated fair value ¥4.10 (−75%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300696 calculated?
We run Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥4.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥16.72. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.10, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) come from?
Earnings per share at Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp grew +12.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The market capitalisation of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 4.9B CNY (≈ $736M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 11.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Earnings per share at Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp are ¥−0.1200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The dividend yield of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The net margin of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
The operating margin of Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is −31.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696)?
Revenue at Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp is growing −45.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp (300696) hold?
Chengdu ALD Aviation Manufacturing Corp holds more cash than debt, 358M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026