Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd stock ¥18.02, price ¥20.20, that is 10.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥18.28 – ¥41.41 · fair‑value band ¥10.52 – ¥25.62 · the ¥20.20 price screens above the ¥18.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells chemical products and raw materials worldwide.
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The company provides granular urea, power plant grade ammonium sulfate, caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate, and ammonium bicarbonate for agricultural use; and dimethyl carbonate, methyl ethyl carbonate, diethyl carbonate, and oxalic acid.
It also offers glossy nylon 6 slices, caprolactam, adipic acid, melamine, N-butanol, isooctanol, N-butyraldehyde, isobutyraldehyde, ethylene glycol; dimethylformamide, monomethylamine, dimethylamine, trimethylamine, acetic acid, acetic anhydride, and methanol; autoclaved fly ash brick; nitrous oxide; and mixed diacids products.
In addition, the company provides industrialization services, such as development planning, engineering design, project management, and equipment manufacturing. Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Dezhou, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) currently trades at ¥20.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥18.02, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥26.29 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥20.20 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥5.54, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥10.52 (bear) to ¥25.62 (bull), the price of ¥20.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd reported revenue of 31.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 55.5B CNY (≈ $8.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.74 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −11%, 600426 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥10.52Fair Value ¥18.02Bull¥25.62
Price ¥20.20 · Downside -10.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs 14.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.2% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The company's flexible one-feed multiple-product model in coal chemicals supports efficiency gains from its gasification upgrade, yet this is offset by weak free cash flow and limited evidence of a durable competitive moat.
Main risk: Volatile urea and chemical prices together with uncertain demand and policy shifts could overwhelm efficiency gains and pressure margins in its coal chemicals and fertilizer operations.
The company just finished upgrading its gasification platform to boost syngas output without raising coal use. That fits its flexible one-feed multiple-product model in coal chemicals and fertilizers. Yet urea and chemical prices remain volatile with uncertain demand and policy shifts. Will the efficiency gains from these projects reliably lift margins or get swamped by cyclical swings?
Compare Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Return on assets6.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600426
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥18.02 versus a price of ¥20.20, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600426?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is ¥18.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥20.20.
What is the quality score of 600426?
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥18.02 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.52, optimistic scenario ¥25.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥18.02, about 11% lower versus a price of ¥20.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥10.52, optimistic scenario ¥25.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600426 use?
Our models discount Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd that is +37.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd grew +18.8 % a year. The price currently implies +37.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (+37.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.28 %: that much free cash flow Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd it is ¥18.02 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥20.20. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 600426 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥20.20, fair value ¥18.02, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600426?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥20.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥18.02). For Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd the two are ¥2.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd at about 55.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥20.20; our models calculate a fair value of ¥18.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600426?
Our models span a range for Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥10.52, base ¥18.02, optimistic ¥25.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥20.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600426?
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥18.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of 600426?
The PEG ratio of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600426 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd trades at ¥20.20, about 51% below its 52-week high of ¥41.41 and 11% above the low of ¥18.28 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥18.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥20.20, calculated fair value ¥18.02 (−11%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600426 calculated?
We run Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥18.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥20.20. Our model-based fair value is ¥18.02, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (¥10.52 to ¥25.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) come from?
Earnings per share at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd grew +22.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin +7.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 55.5B CNY (≈ $8.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 1.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd are ¥1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 2.2% (payout 26.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The net margin of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 12.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 16.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
The operating margin of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Revenue at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd are growing +44.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd (600426) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co Ltd is 6.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026