Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging stock ¥2.15, price ¥4.15, that is 48.2% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.92 – ¥10.49 · fair‑value band ¥2.15 – ¥2.44 · the ¥4.15 price screens above the ¥2.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and operation of metal packaging products in China and internationally.
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It provides two-piece cans, matching pull-open lids, tinplates, packaged color-printed iron products, and commissioned processed printed iron products to fast-moving consumer goods industry, such as food and beverages. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) currently trades at ¥4.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.15, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥4.17 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥4.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.32, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.15 (bear) to ¥2.44 (bull), the price of ¥4.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging reported revenue of 8.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was 188M CNY in FY2025, compounding −8.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3B CNY (≈ $794M) Small · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1800 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −48%, 601968 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.15Fair Value ¥2.15Bull¥2.44
Price ¥4.15 · Downside -48.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0385 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥2.56¥2.53¥2.6076
EPV¥2.33¥2.59¥2.8174
ROIC Compounder¥2.33¥2.59¥2.8172
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.00¥3.98¥5.4064
Lynch FV¥0.9900¥1.41¥1.8361
PEG = 1.0¥0.9900¥1.41¥1.8357
EPV¥2.33¥2.59¥2.8174
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.7500¥1.39¥1.9867
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.7500¥1.25¥1.4867
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥1.88¥2.50¥3.1363
P/S Multiple¥1.88¥2.50¥3.1358
P/B Multiple¥4.75¥6.34¥7.9255
EV/EBIT¥3.35¥4.31¥5.2766
EV/EBITDA¥4.93¥6.41¥7.9067
EV/Revenue¥2.97¥4.03¥5.1054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥1.57¥2.11¥3.1454
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥2.56¥2.53¥2.6076
ROIC Compounder¥2.33¥2.59¥2.8172
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥1.54¥2.21¥2.8767
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.0% vs 2.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Compare Shanghai Baosteel Packaging with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.1× · Pricier than median
P/B1.17× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.55× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.9× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)89· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)65· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.15 versus a price of ¥4.15, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601968?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is ¥2.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥4.15.
What is the quality score of 601968?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.15, optimistic scenario ¥2.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Baosteel Packaging stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.15, about 48% lower versus a price of ¥4.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.15, optimistic scenario ¥2.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Shanghai Baosteel Packaging pay a dividend?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging currently shows a dividend yield of 3.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging pays a dividend of ¥0.135 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 23, 2026. The payout ratio is 75.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Baosteel Packaging it is ¥2.15 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥4.15. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shanghai Baosteel Packaging stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 601968 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥4.15, fair value ¥2.15, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601968?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥4.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.15). For Shanghai Baosteel Packaging the two are ¥2.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Baosteel Packaging worth?
The market values Shanghai Baosteel Packaging at about 5.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥4.15; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601968?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging: cautious scenario ¥2.15, base ¥2.15, optimistic ¥2.44 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥4.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601968?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥2.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 39.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601968 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging trades at ¥4.15, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥6.32 and 6% above the low of ¥3.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Baosteel Packaging?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Baosteel Packaging stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥4.15, calculated fair value ¥2.15 (−48%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601968 calculated?
We run Shanghai Baosteel Packaging through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥2.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Baosteel Packaging itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥4.15. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.15, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Baosteel Packaging right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (¥2.15 to ¥2.44), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging grew +1.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 5.3B CNY (≈ $794M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging are ¥0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 3.3% (payout 75.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The net margin of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Revenue at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baosteel Packaging are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai Baosteel Packaging is −192M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shanghai Baosteel Packaging (601968) hold?
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging holds more cash than debt, 601M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026