Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co (601968) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 5.7B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.92 – ¥10.49 · fair‑value band ¥1.60 – ¥2.66 · the ¥4.49 price screens above the ¥2.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co (601968) currently trades at ¥4.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co generated revenue of 9.2B CNY at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 601M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.60 (bear case) to ¥2.66 (bull case); at ¥4.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -53%, 601968 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (¥2.62) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.39). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and operation of metal packaging products in China and internationally.
Full company description
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and operation of metal packaging products in China and internationally. It provides two-piece cans, matching pull-open lids, tinplates, packaged color-printed iron products, and commissioned processed printed iron products to fast-moving consumer goods industry, such as food and beverages. The company was founded in 2004 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co reported revenue of ¥8.8B in FY2025 versus ¥7.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥188M in FY2025, compounding −8.4%/yr from FY2021.
601968 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 273 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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