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Data-driven stock valuation

Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shandong Swan Cotton stock ¥5.81, price ¥15.67, that is 62.9% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100002748

SS Shandong Swan Cotton logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

Shandong Swan Cotton

603029 · SHG
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Broad data
Quality 52/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.4 %/yr in CNY)
Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
1.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Fair value ¥5.81 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 38/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥32.97 ¥8.81 Fair Value ¥5.81 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.81 – ¥32.97 · fair‑value band ¥5.60 – ¥7.29 · the ¥15.67 price screens above the ¥5.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of cotton processing equipment in China.

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The company offers cotton ginning; seed cotton cleaning machines; dust removal drying, humidification, and intelligent processing systems; saw blade processing equipment; cotton bale automation series; and harvesting machines.

It provides cotton harvesting machinery; grain harvesting; fruit harvesting machinery, including self-propelled tomato harvester; other agricultural machinery products mainly include grain drying and straw baling products; cotton processing machinery products that includes ginning equipment, delinting equipment, and auxiliary equipment; and auxiliary equipment, including dust removal, drying, lifting, cotton collection, auger, bale stacking, and bundling equipment.

In addition, the company offers accessories and support products, such as ginning and stripping saw blades, U-shaped racks and rollers, brush rollers, spacers, and shell rib rows, as well as provides pre-sales and after-sales services. It also exports its products worldwide.

The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Jinan, China.

Stock analysis

Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) currently trades at ¥15.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.81, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥17.94 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥15.67 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.00, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ¥5.60 (bear) to ¥7.29 (bull), the price of ¥15.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Shandong Swan Cotton reported revenue of 959M CNY in FY2025 versus 522M CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 74.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 1.9B CNY (≈ $285M) Micro · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6300 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −63%, 603029 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥5.60 Fair Value ¥5.81 Bull ¥7.29
Price ¥15.67 · Downside -62.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3816 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings ¥4.68 ¥5.81 ¥7.29 78
Residual Income ¥5.60 ¥5.64 ¥6.03 76
EPV ¥8.49 ¥9.15 ¥9.68 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥4.68 ¥5.81 ¥7.29 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.18 ¥17.62 ¥24.04 64
Lynch FV ¥4.48 ¥6.40 ¥8.32 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.48 ¥6.40 ¥8.32 57
EPV ¥8.49 ¥9.15 ¥9.68 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.28 ¥2.02 ¥2.52 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.28 ¥1.97 ¥2.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥9.69 ¥12.92 ¥16.14 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.84 ¥10.46 ¥13.07 58
P/B Multiple ¥24.31 ¥32.41 ¥40.51 55
EV/EBIT ¥15.54 ¥20.07 ¥24.61 66
EV/EBITDA ¥15.89 ¥20.54 ¥25.19 67
EV/Revenue ¥11.65 ¥15.81 ¥19.97 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.14 ¥3.25 ¥4.06 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.60 ¥5.64 ¥6.03 76
ROIC Compounder ¥8.66 ¥9.80 ¥11.10 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.59 ¥10.85 ¥14.10 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 67
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 74
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 49
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 29
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 22
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 84
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+40.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.7% vs 3.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

603029 screens overvalued: fair value 63% below the price. Compare with SIE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −62.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.2% · Above median
Return on assets 3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 7.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 5.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 24.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.00× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.90× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 30
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)24 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Cummins Inc CMI $450.07 $359.36 −20% vs 603029
SIE SIE €271.00 €149.56 −45% vs 603029
AMETEK, Inc AME $228.67 $125.74 −45% vs 603029
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $280.95 $154.30 −45% vs 603029
Sandvik AB SAND kr 357.40 kr 194.33 −46% vs 603029
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $917.79 $492.92 −46% vs 603029
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $375.86 $186.75 −50% vs 603029
Emerson Electric Co EMR $162.35 $79.99 −51% vs 603029
Eaton Corporation ETN $341.72 $156.90 −54% vs 603029
GE Vernova Inc GEV $774.11 $143.50 −81% vs 603029

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Shandong Swan Cotton: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Swan Cotton Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603029

Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.81 versus a price of ¥15.67, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603029?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Swan Cotton is ¥5.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.67.
What is the quality score of 603029?
Shandong Swan Cotton has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.81 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.60, optimistic scenario ¥7.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Swan Cotton stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.81, about 63% lower versus a price of ¥15.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.60, optimistic scenario ¥7.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Shandong Swan Cotton reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Shandong Swan Cotton pay a dividend?
Shandong Swan Cotton currently shows a dividend yield of 1.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Shandong Swan Cotton pays a dividend of ¥0.185 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 16, 2026. The payout ratio is 29.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Swan Cotton it is ¥5.81 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥15.67. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Shandong Swan Cotton stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 603029 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥15.67, fair value ¥5.81, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603029?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.81). For Shandong Swan Cotton the two are ¥9.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Swan Cotton worth?
The market values Shandong Swan Cotton at about 1.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.67; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603029?
Our models span a range for Shandong Swan Cotton: cautious scenario ¥5.60, base ¥5.81, optimistic ¥7.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥15.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603029?
Shandong Swan Cotton trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Swan Cotton (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603029 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Swan Cotton trades at ¥15.67, about 27% below its 52-week high of ¥21.60 and 20% above the low of ¥13.04 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Swan Cotton?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Swan Cotton stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥15.67, calculated fair value ¥5.81 (−63%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603029 calculated?
We run Shandong Swan Cotton through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥5.81 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Swan Cotton itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥15.67. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.81, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Swan Cotton right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) come from?
Earnings per share at Shandong Swan Cotton grew +0.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Shandong Swan Cotton

How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Swan Cotton is 1.9B CNY (≈ $285M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Swan Cotton is 1.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Swan Cotton are ¥0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Swan Cotton is 1.2% (payout 29.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The net margin of Shandong Swan Cotton is 7.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Swan Cotton is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Swan Cotton is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The operating margin of Shandong Swan Cotton is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Revenue at Shandong Swan Cotton is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Swan Cotton are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Swan Cotton is −35.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) hold?
Shandong Swan Cotton holds more cash than debt, 235M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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