Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co (603029) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 1.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 10, 2026, revised from ¥10.72 to ¥10.02 (−6.5%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +10.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥10.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥5.86 to ¥10.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.62 – ¥32.97 · fair‑value band ¥5.86 – ¥10.70 · the ¥15.77 price screens above the ¥10.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co (603029) currently trades at ¥15.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.02, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co generated revenue of 1.0B CNY at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 42.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 235M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.86 (bear case) to ¥10.70 (bull case); at ¥15.77, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -36%, 603029 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥14.69) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.59). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of cotton processing equipment in China.
Full company description
Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of cotton processing equipment in China. The company offers cotton ginning; seed cotton cleaning machines; dust removal drying, humidification, and intelligent processing systems; saw blade processing equipment; cotton bale automation series; and harvesting machines. It provides cotton harvesting machinery; grain harvesting; fruit harvesting machinery, including self-propelled tomato harvester; other agricultural machinery products mainly include grain drying and straw baling products; cotton processing machinery products that includes ginning equipment, delinting equipment, and auxiliary equipment; and auxiliary equipment, including dust removal, drying, lifting, cotton collection, auger, bale stacking, and bundling equipment. In addition, the company offers accessories and support products, such as ginning and stripping saw blades, U-shaped racks and rollers, brush rollers, spacers, and shell rib rows, as well as provides pre-sales and after-sales services. It also exports its products worldwide. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Jinan, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co reported revenue of ¥959M in FY2025 versus ¥522M in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥74.6M in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
603029 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 804 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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