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Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shandong Swan Cotton ¥5.81, price ¥16.54, upside -64.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100002748

SS Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Shandong Swan Cotton

603029 · SHG

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value ¥5.81 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.12% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥32.97 ¥8.81 Fair Value ¥5.81 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥8.81 – ¥32.97 · fair‑value band ¥5.59 – ¥7.30 · the ¥16.54 price screens above the ¥5.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of cotton processing equipment in China.

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Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of cotton processing equipment in China. The company offers cotton ginning; seed cotton cleaning machines; dust removal drying, humidification, and intelligent processing systems; saw blade processing equipment; cotton bale automation series; and harvesting machines. It provides cotton harvesting machinery; grain harvesting; fruit harvesting machinery, including self-propelled tomato harvester; other agricultural machinery products mainly include grain drying and straw baling products; cotton processing machinery products that includes ginning equipment, delinting equipment, and auxiliary equipment; and auxiliary equipment, including dust removal, drying, lifting, cotton collection, auger, bale stacking, and bundling equipment. In addition, the company offers accessories and support products, such as ginning and stripping saw blades, U-shaped racks and rollers, brush rollers, spacers, and shell rib rows, as well as provides pre-sales and after-sales services. It also exports its products worldwide. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Jinan, China.

Stock analysis

Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) currently trades at ¥16.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.81, implying the stock looks roughly 184.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥13.14 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥16.54 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.24, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ¥5.59 (bear) to ¥7.30 (bull), the price of ¥16.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Shandong Swan Cotton reported revenue of 959M CNY in FY2025 versus 522M CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was 74.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 2.0B CNY (≈ $299M) · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6200 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −65%, 603029 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥5.59 Fair Value ¥5.81 Bull ¥7.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3194 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings ¥9.38 ¥13.14 ¥18.34 77
Residual Income ¥5.85 ¥6.00 ¥5.92 76
EPV ¥9.17 ¥10.00 ¥10.66 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥9.38 ¥13.14 ¥18.34 77
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.18 ¥17.62 ¥24.04 64
Lynch FV ¥4.48 ¥6.40 ¥8.32 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥4.48 ¥6.40 ¥8.32 57
EPV ¥9.17 ¥10.00 ¥10.66 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.41 ¥2.36 ¥3.07 68
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.41 ¥2.24 ¥2.54 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥9.69 ¥12.92 ¥16.14 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.84 ¥10.46 ¥13.07 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.84 ¥10.46 ¥13.07 55
EV/EBIT ¥15.92 ¥20.45 ¥24.99 66
EV/EBITDA ¥16.26 ¥20.92 ¥25.57 67
EV/Revenue ¥12.02 ¥16.18 ¥20.35 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.93 ¥5.26 ¥7.85 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.85 ¥6.00 ¥5.92 76
ROIC Compounder ¥9.53 ¥11.10 ¥12.95 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.59 ¥10.85 ¥14.10 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+40.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.40% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

603029 screens 185% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 827 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 43% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.11× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.99× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 12.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)32 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
GE Vernova Inc GEV $955.04 $210.47 −78%
SIE SIE €274.80 €150.42 −45%
Eaton Corporation ETN $440.00 $173.12 −61%
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH $974.98 $494.81 −49%
Cummins Inc CMI $524.65 $359.38 −32%
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW $273.42 $151.39 −45%
Emerson Electric Co EMR $154.59 $62.15 −60%
AMETEK, Inc AME $245.41 $125.80 −49%
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK $432.89 $138.24 −68%
Sandvik AB SAND kr 383.50 kr 193.39 −50%

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Shandong Swan Cotton · Fair Value
¥5.81 −185%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Swan Cotton Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603029

Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.81 versus a price of ¥16.54, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603029?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Swan Cotton is ¥5.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.54.
What is the quality score of 603029?
Shandong Swan Cotton has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.59, optimistic scenario ¥7.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Swan Cotton stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.81, about −65% upside versus a price of ¥16.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.59, optimistic scenario ¥7.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Shandong Swan Cotton reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shandong Swan Cotton pay a dividend?
Shandong Swan Cotton currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Swan Cotton it is ¥5.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥16.54. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shandong Swan Cotton stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603029 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.54, fair value ¥5.81, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603029?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.81). For Shandong Swan Cotton the two are ¥10.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Swan Cotton worth?
The market values Shandong Swan Cotton at about 2.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.54; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603029?
Our models span a range for Shandong Swan Cotton: cautious scenario ¥5.59, base ¥5.81, optimistic ¥7.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥16.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603029?
Shandong Swan Cotton trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Swan Cotton (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603029 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Swan Cotton trades at ¥16.54, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥21.60 and 27% above the low of ¥13.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Swan Cotton?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Swan Cotton stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥16.54, calculated fair value ¥5.81 (−65%), Quality Score 51/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603029 calculated?
We run Shandong Swan Cotton through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Swan Cotton itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥16.54. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.81, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Swan Cotton right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) come from?
Earnings per share at Shandong Swan Cotton grew +0.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Shandong Swan Cotton

How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Swan Cotton is 2.0B CNY (≈ $299M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Swan Cotton is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Swan Cotton are ¥0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The dividend yield of Shandong Swan Cotton is 1.1% (payout 29.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The net margin of Shandong Swan Cotton is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Swan Cotton is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Swan Cotton is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
The operating margin of Shandong Swan Cotton is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Swan Cotton (603029)?
Revenue at Shandong Swan Cotton is growing +42.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) generate?
The free cash flow of Shandong Swan Cotton is −35.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shandong Swan Cotton (603029) hold?
Shandong Swan Cotton holds more cash than debt, 235M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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