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Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd stock ¥4.61, price ¥8.22, that is 43.9% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials CN · ISIN CNE100002276

HL Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd

603223 · SHG
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 26.3% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Quality 57/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −9.1 %/yr in CNY)
0.9% dividend yield · Token dividend
Moderate moat 59/100 · thin data
Some data
Revenue last quarter 18% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥4.61 · Strongly overvalued (−43.9%)
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥19.85 ¥6.15 Fair Value ¥4.61 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥6.15 – ¥19.85 · fair‑value band ¥3.96 – ¥5.29 · the ¥8.22 price screens above the ¥4.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. engages in the logistics business in China. It is involved in road freight logistics, transportation, LNG energy trade logistics, and terminal leasing activities.

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The company also offers general cargo transportation, transportation vehicles, transportation fleet services, and hazardous chemicals transportation.

In addition, it provides oil and gas and bulk commodity trading; port construction and operation; clean energy solutions; full logistics services; and intelligent transportation system research and development.

In addition, the company engages in liquefied natural gas (LNG) leasing; and provision of road transport, driver training, and petroleum gas services, as well as cargo warehousing, loading, unloading, and shipping agency services.

Further, it provides information systems, hardware and software solutions, logistics agency, cargo transportation, dangerous goods transportation, tallying, motor vehicle maintenance and repair, technical, agency, leasing, enterprise management consulting, port investment and construction, dangerous chemicals transportation, and road general cargo transportation services; and engages in computer software and hardware development and sales, material sales, gas business, natural gas wholesale, gas stove assembly, trade, and investment activities.

Additionally, the company engages in ship repair, leasing, road freight transportation, dangerous goods transportation, construction engineering, logistics business, mining investment business, and international trade business.

The company was formerly known as Longkou Hengtong Transportation Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. in December 2011. Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Yantai, China.

Stock analysis

Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) currently trades at ¥8.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥4.61, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥5.40 per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥8.22 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.00, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥3.96 (bear) to ¥5.29 (bull), the price of ¥8.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.

Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −33.8%/yr. Reported net income was 266M CNY in FY2025, compounding +28.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 5.9B CNY (≈ $881M) Small · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 4.37 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.5300 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 26.3% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −44%, 603223 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥3.96 Fair Value ¥4.61 Bull ¥5.29
Price ¥8.22 · Downside -43.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3932 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income ¥4.42 ¥4.61 ¥4.95 76
EPV ¥4.67 ¥5.17 ¥5.58 74
ROIC Compounder ¥4.67 ¥5.17 ¥5.58 72
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.56 ¥3.13 ¥3.53 67
EPV ¥4.67 ¥5.17 ¥5.58 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.14 ¥1.24 ¥1.38 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.14 ¥1.38 ¥1.68 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥3.96 ¥5.28 ¥6.60 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.73 ¥2.31 ¥2.89 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.03 ¥9.37 ¥11.71 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.94 ¥6.09 ¥7.25 66
EV/EBITDA ¥4.51 ¥5.52 ¥6.54 67
EV/Revenue ¥3.09 ¥3.78 ¥4.47 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥0.6600 ¥1.00 ¥1.26 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.42 ¥4.61 ¥4.95 76
ROIC Compounder ¥4.67 ¥5.17 ¥5.58 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.85 ¥4.07 ¥5.29 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 45
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 97
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 54
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 66
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 10
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 47
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.9% vs 11.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 24%
2025 sits 119% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

603223 screens overvalued: fair value 44% below the price. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −43.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 26.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 24.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −18.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 4.37× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)35 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)17 · sector 35

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $58.41 $93.46 +60% vs 603223
TFI International Inc TFII $94.94 $112.09 +18% vs 603223
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $164.92 $174.14 +6% vs 603223
Mullen Group MTL C$28.74 C$19.85 −31% vs 603223
Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN $26.95 $16.48 −39% vs 603223
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $27.81 $16.20 −42% vs 603223
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥3.98 ¥1.96 −51% vs 603223
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $127.91 $52.83 −59% vs 603223
XPO, Inc XPO $176.95 $71.58 −60% vs 603223
Saia, Inc SAIA $331.90 $126.27 −62% vs 603223

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Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603223

Frequently asked questions

Is Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥4.61 versus a price of ¥8.22, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603223?
Our model-based fair value for Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is ¥4.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.22.
What is the quality score of 603223?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥4.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥3.96, optimistic scenario ¥5.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥4.61, about 44% lower versus a price of ¥8.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥3.96, optimistic scenario ¥5.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. The payout ratio is 13.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.9% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.9% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd it is ¥4.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥8.22. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 603223 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.22, fair value ¥4.61, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603223?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥4.61). For Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd the two are ¥3.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd at about 5.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥4.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603223?
Our models span a range for Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥3.96, base ¥4.61, optimistic ¥5.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥8.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603223?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥4.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603223 from its 52-week high?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd trades at ¥8.22, about 43% below its 52-week high of ¥14.40 and 3% above the low of ¥7.98 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥4.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥8.22, calculated fair value ¥4.61 (−44%), Quality Score 57/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603223 calculated?
We run Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd through 14 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥4.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥8.22. Our model-based fair value is ¥4.61, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) come from?
Earnings per share at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd grew +3.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.1 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The market capitalisation of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 5.9B CNY (≈ $881M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 4.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Earnings per share at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd are ¥0.5300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The dividend yield of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 0.9% (payout 13.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The net margin of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 26.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
The operating margin of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Revenue at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is growing −18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −36.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223)?
Earnings per share at Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) generate?
The free cash flow of Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd is −110M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd (603223) hold?
Hengtong Logistic Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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