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China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock HK$9.27, price HK$3.68, upside +152.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive HK · Based in China · ISIN KYG2163J1004

CY China Youran Dairy Group Ltd logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd

9858 · HK
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 60% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value HK$9.27 · Strongly undervalued (60%)
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 85% above the price (HK$6.80).
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr in CNY)
Thin margins · 3.2% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Quality 34/100
Narrow moat 35/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.15 HK$1.05 Fair Value HK$9.27 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.05 – HK$6.15 · fair‑value band HK$6.80 – HK$11.77 · the HK$3.68 price screens below the HK$9.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Comprehensive Ruminant Farming Solutions segments.

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It offers raw milk to dairy manufacturers.

It also provides nutritious concentrated feed and forage grass for dairy farms; frozen bovine semen, sex-sorted frozen bovine semen, embryos, breeding solutions, etc.; and ruminant farming products, such as veterinary drugs, animal husbandry equipment, and other items for dairy farms through its online retail platform, Jumuc.com, and offline pick-up stores.

The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hohhot, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) currently trades at HK$3.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.27, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$11.23 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$3.68 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.80, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$6.80 (bear) to HK$11.77 (bull), the price of HK$3.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd reported revenue of 20.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 15.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −432M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$15.3B (≈ $1.9B) Small · P/E ratio 18.1 · P/S ratio 0.70 · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 22.7% · Revenue (TTM) 21.0B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 152%, 9858 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$6.80 Fair Value HK$9.27 Bull HK$11.77
Price HK$3.68 · Upside +152.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV HK$6.38 HK$7.41 HK$8.25 74
ROIC Compounder HK$7.13 HK$9.27 HK$11.77 72
EV/EBITDA HK$6.80 HK$11.23 HK$15.66 65
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$6.38 HK$7.41 HK$8.25 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$8.40 HK$13.36 HK$18.31 64
EV/EBITDA HK$6.80 HK$11.23 HK$15.66 65
EV/Revenue n/a HK$1.63 HK$4.06 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.35 HK$1.80 HK$2.69 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$7.13 HK$9.27 HK$11.77 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 16
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 14
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 32
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 42
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 48
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 32
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.0% (2019) → 21.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 287 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +152.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 4.9% · Above median
Return on assets −1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 22.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.67× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.62× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.6× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)17 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)67 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 20.20 THB 59.28 THB +193% vs 9858
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $56.96 $73.24 +29% vs 9858
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥43.13 ¥53.02 +23% vs 9858
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 218.00 kr 266.51 +22% vs 9858
United Plantations Berhad 2089 30.00 MYR 32.14 MYR +7% vs 9858
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $70.60 $60.78 −14% vs 9858
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥16.53 ¥12.08 −27% vs 9858
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥134.20 ¥88.62 −34% vs 9858
Bunge Global SA BG $94.72 $56.81 −40% vs 9858
SalMar ASA SALM kr 597.50 kr 260.08 −56% vs 9858

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China Youran Dairy Group Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Youran Dairy Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9858

Frequently asked questions

Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.27 versus a price of HK$3.68, about +152% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9858?
Our model-based fair value for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is HK$9.27 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$3.68.
What is the quality score of 9858?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.27 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.80, optimistic scenario HK$11.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.27, about +152% upside versus a price of HK$3.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.80, optimistic scenario HK$11.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Youran Dairy Group Ltd it is HK$9.27 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of HK$3.68. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 9858 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$3.68, fair value HK$9.27, a gap of about +152% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9858?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$3.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.27). For China Youran Dairy Group Ltd the two are HK$5.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Youran Dairy Group Ltd at about HK$15.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is HK$3.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.27 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9858?
Our models span a range for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.80, base HK$9.27, optimistic HK$11.77 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price HK$3.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9858?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.27 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9858 from its 52-week high?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd trades at HK$3.68, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$5.23 and 33% above the low of HK$2.77 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.27 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Youran Dairy Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price HK$3.68, calculated fair value HK$9.27 (+152%), Quality Score 34/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9858 calculated?
We run China Youran Dairy Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5% above its aggregate fair value. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was HK$3.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.27, about +152% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Youran Dairy Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The market capitalisation of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is HK$15.3B (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The net margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is −2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The operating margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Revenue at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Earnings per share at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd are growing −50.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) generate?
The free cash flow of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is −179M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) carry?
The net debt of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 24.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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