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China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · HK · ISIN KYG2163J1004

CY Thin data Sep 20, 2026

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd

9858 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$12.13 · Strongly undervalued (+185%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$6.22 HK$1.05 Fair Value HK$12.13 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.05 – HK$6.22 · fair‑value band HK$7.88 – HK$16.28 · the HK$4.26 price screens below the HK$12.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.

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Company profile

China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Comprehensive Ruminant Farming Solutions segments. It offers raw milk to dairy manufacturers.

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China Youran Dairy Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an integrated provider of products and services in the upstream dairy industry in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through Raw Milk Business and Comprehensive Ruminant Farming Solutions segments. It offers raw milk to dairy manufacturers. It also provides nutritious concentrated feed and forage grass for dairy farms; frozen bovine semen, sex-sorted frozen bovine semen, embryos, breeding solutions, etc.; and ruminant farming products, such as veterinary drugs, animal husbandry equipment, and other items for dairy farms through its online retail platform, Jumuc.com, and offline pick-up stores. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hohhot, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) currently trades at HK$4.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.13, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$13.72 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$4.26 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.64, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$7.88 (bear) to HK$16.28 (bull), the price of HK$4.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

China Youran Dairy Group Ltd reported revenue of 20.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 15.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −432M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$16.6B (≈ $2.1B) · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0800 · Net margin −2.1% · Return on equity −3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 21.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$20.7B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 185%, 9858 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$7.88 Fair Value HK$12.13 Bull HK$16.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV HK$7.16 HK$8.58 HK$9.82 74
ROIC Compounder HK$8.25 HK$11.40 HK$15.38 71
EV/EBITDA HK$9.95 HK$13.72 HK$17.49 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$7.16 HK$8.58 HK$9.82 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$11.31 HK$15.53 HK$19.75 66
EV/EBITDA HK$9.95 HK$13.72 HK$17.49 67
EV/Revenue HK$3.48 HK$5.55 HK$7.62 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.22 HK$1.64 HK$2.45 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$8.25 HK$11.40 HK$15.38 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 33/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.0% (2019) → 21.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +167% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.67× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.15× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.08× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.5× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)17 · sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)67 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $85.00 $38.02 −55%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥41.08 ¥112.63 +174%
Bunge Global SA BG $117.13 $56.19 −52%
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $52.12 $37.28 −28%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥14.63 ¥11.18 −24%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 202.80 kr 254.35 +25%
SalMar ASA SALM kr 562.50 kr 171.05 −70%
PT Pradiksi Gunatama Tbk PGUN 9,600 IDR 1,184 IDR −88%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥169.08 ¥311.94 +84%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 33.60 MYR 36.96 MYR +10%

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China Youran Dairy Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$12.13 +65%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Youran Dairy Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9858

Frequently asked questions

Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.13 versus a price of HK$4.26, about +185% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9858?
Our model-based fair value for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is HK$12.13 (as of Sep 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.26.
What is the quality score of 9858?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.13 (as of Sep 20, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.88, optimistic scenario HK$16.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.13, about +185% upside versus a price of HK$4.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.88, optimistic scenario HK$16.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Youran Dairy Group Ltd it is HK$12.13 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026), against a price of HK$4.26. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 20, 2026, 9858 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.26, fair value HK$12.13, a gap of about +185% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9858?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.13). For China Youran Dairy Group Ltd the two are HK$7.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd worth?
The market values China Youran Dairy Group Ltd at about HK$16.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 20, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.26; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9858?
Our models span a range for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$7.88, base HK$12.13, optimistic HK$16.28 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026, price HK$4.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (as of Sep 20, 2026): return on equity −3.6%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9858 from its 52-week high?
China Youran Dairy Group Ltd trades at HK$4.26, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$5.29 and 68% above the low of HK$2.53 (as of Sep 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Youran Dairy Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Youran Dairy Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 20, 2026: price HK$4.26, calculated fair value HK$12.13 (+185%), Quality Score 40/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9858 calculated?
We run China Youran Dairy Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. China Youran Dairy Group Ltd currently trades 185 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$4.26. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.13, about +185% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Youran Dairy Group Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$7.88). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$7.88 to HK$16.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The market capitalisation of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is HK$16.6B (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 0.62 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Earnings per share at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd are HK$−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The net margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is −2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
The operating margin of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Revenue at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858)?
Earnings per share at China Youran Dairy Group Ltd are growing −50.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) generate?
The free cash flow of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is −HK$179M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Youran Dairy Group Ltd (9858) carry?
The net debt of China Youran Dairy Group Ltd is HK$24.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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