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Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arqit Quantum Inc. stock $8.35, price $15.74, that is 47.0% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Technology US · Based in United Kingdom · ISIN KYG0567U1278

AQ Arqit Quantum Inc. logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Arqit Quantum Inc.

ARQQ · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Insiders sold $2.7M (6M)
Fair value $8.35 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 36/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −58.1 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$951.50 $3.79 Fair Value $8.35 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.79 – $951.50 · fair‑value band $6.26 – $10.44 · the $15.74 price screens above the $8.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Arqit Quantum Inc. provides cybersecurity services through satellite and terrestrial platforms in the United Kingdom. The company offers QuantumCloud, a platform as a service that creates unbreakable software encryption keys. It also provides maintenance and support, and professional services.

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The company has a strategic collaboration with RAD for the development of a joint quantum-safe encryption solution for telecom networks. The company is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) currently trades at $15.74, while our estimate is $8.35, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $6.26 (bear) to $10.44 (bull), the price of $15.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Arqit Quantum Inc. reported revenue of $530K in FY2025 versus $47.9K in FY2021, a compound +82.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$35.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $261M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−3.21 · Return on equity −220% · Return on assets (EBIT) −84.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −4,932% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +830% · Free cash flow −$29.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −47%, ARQQ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $6.26 Fair Value $8.35 Bull $10.44
Price $15.74 · Downside -47.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 70
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 92
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 19
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 10
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.7M and none bought.

  • SaleAndrew LeaverChief Executive Officer6× since Apr 6, 2026: 27,812 shares, avg. $20.90$581,394Oct 13, 2026
  • SalePaul FeenanChief Revenue Officer5× since Apr 2, 2026: 5,009 shares, avg. $21.00$105,209Oct 6, 2026
  • SalePatrick WillcocksGeneral Counsel6× since Apr 2, 2026: 9,499 shares, avg. $24.57$233,433Oct 6, 2026
  • SaleGarth RitchieDirector5× since Apr 2, 2026: 1,317 shares, avg. $20.26$26,683Oct 6, 2026
  • SaleNicholas William NilanGeneral Manager-US3× since Oct 2, 2026: 1,509 shares, avg. $24.14$36,432Oct 6, 2026
  • SaleBen Simon WilderChief Operating Officer5× since Apr 2, 2026: 2,124 shares, avg. $21.04$44,694Oct 6, 2026
  • Saled'Ovidio Manfredi LefebvreDirector54,444 shares at $30.17$1.6MJul 1, 2026
  • SaleJennifer BersChief Revenue Officer8,288 shares at $21.42$177,529Jun 22, 2026
  • SaleNicholas PointonChief Financial Officer2× since Apr 2, 2026: 2,144 shares, avg. $13.84$29,667Apr 20, 2026

Plus 42 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+80.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−58.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−360,177.4% (2021) → −6,636.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ARQQ screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 410 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −82.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 829.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 9.58× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 27

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $533.16 $599.70 +12% vs ARQQ
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $123.57 $130.72 +6% vs ARQQ
Oracle Corporation ORCL $117.98 $111.97 −5% vs ARQQ
Block, Inc XYZ $85.58 $76.43 −11% vs ARQQ
NetApp, Inc NTAP $175.99 $156.80 −11% vs ARQQ
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $459.95 $288.23 −37% vs ARQQ
Zscaler, Inc ZS $194.92 $101.45 −48% vs ARQQ
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $168.82 $42.20 −75% vs ARQQ
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $225.76 $37.97 −83% vs ARQQ
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $326.36 $39.54 −88% vs ARQQ

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arqit Quantum Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARQQ

Frequently asked questions

Is Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $8.35 versus a price of $15.74, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARQQ?
Our estimate for Arqit Quantum Inc. is $8.35 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.74.
What is the quality score of ARQQ?
Arqit Quantum Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $8.35 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $6.26, optimistic scenario $10.44. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Arqit Quantum Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $8.35, about 47% lower versus a price of $15.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.26, optimistic scenario $10.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Arqit Quantum Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arqit Quantum Inc. it is $8.35 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $15.74.
Is Arqit Quantum Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ARQQ trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.74, fair value $8.35, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARQQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.35). For Arqit Quantum Inc. the two are $7.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arqit Quantum Inc. worth?
The market values Arqit Quantum Inc. at about $261M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $15.74; our models calculate a fair value of $8.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARQQ?
Our models span a range for Arqit Quantum Inc.: cautious scenario $6.26, base $8.35, optimistic $10.44 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $15.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arqit Quantum Inc. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −220.2%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARQQ from its 52-week high?
Arqit Quantum Inc. trades at $15.74, about 51% below its 52-week high of $32.19 and 34% above the low of $11.78 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arqit Quantum Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arqit Quantum Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $15.74, calculated fair value $8.35 (−47%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Arqit Quantum Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $15.74. Our estimate is $8.35, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arqit Quantum Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Arqit Quantum Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
The market capitalisation of Arqit Quantum Inc. is $261M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Earnings per share at Arqit Quantum Inc. are $−3.21. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arqit Quantum Inc. is −220% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arqit Quantum Inc. is −84.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
The operating margin of Arqit Quantum Inc. is −4,932% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)?
Revenue at Arqit Quantum Inc. is growing +830% versus a year earlier (3y avg −58.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) generate?
The free cash flow of Arqit Quantum Inc. is −$29.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) hold?
Arqit Quantum Inc. holds more cash than debt, $36.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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