Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc stock $12.07, price $13.25, that is 8.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6760 – $14.38 · fair‑value band $5.79 – $19.78 · the $13.25 price screens above the $12.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
Follow Aveanna Healthcare Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Aveanna Healthcare Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., a diversified home care platform company, provides pediatric and adult healthcare services in the United States.
Show moreShow less
Its patient-centered care delivery platform allows patients to remain in their homes and minimizes the overutilization of high-cost care settings, such as hospitals or skilled nursing facilities.
The company operates through three segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). The PDS segment offers private duty nursing (PDN) services, which include in-home skilled nursing services to medically complex children and adults; nursing services in school settings in which its caregivers accompany patients to school; services to patients in its pediatric day healthcare centers; and non-clinical care, including support services and personal care services; and in-clinic and home-based therapy services, such as physical, occupational, and speech services.
The HHH segment provides home health services, including in-home skilled nursing services; physical, occupational, and speech therapy services; and medical social and aide services, as well as hospice services for patients and their families when a life-limiting illness no longer responds to cure-oriented treatments.
The MS segment offers enteral nutrition supplies and other products, including formulas, supplies, and pumps to adults and children delivered on a periodic or as-needed basis. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) currently trades at $13.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.07, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.8%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $17.76 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the $13.25 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $4.33, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.79 (bear) to $19.78 (bull), the price of $13.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was $225M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B Mid · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Net margin 10.6% · Return on equity 199% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −9%, AVAH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.79Fair Value $12.07Bull$19.78
Price $13.25 · Downside -8.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.6M and none bought.
SalePaul R Vigano10% owner4× since Jun 3, 2026: 27,750,002 shares, avg. $9.67$268.3MAug 21, 2026
SaleRobert M Williams Jr10% owner4× since Jun 3, 2026: 27,750,002 shares, avg. $9.67$268.3MAug 21, 2026
SaleJ.H. Whitney Equity Partners VII, LLC10% owner4× since Jun 3, 2026: 23,926,741 shares, avg. $9.73$232.8MAug 21, 2026
SaleEdwin C. ReiszChief Administrative Officer3× since Dec 30, 2025: 263,013 shares, avg. $8.31$2.2MAug 20, 2026
SaleJeff ShanerChief Executive Officer3× since Dec 30, 2025: 636,869 shares, avg. $8.07$5.1MAug 20, 2026
SaleRodney D WindleyDirector180,000 shares at $11.50$2.1MAug 20, 2026
SalePatrick A. CunninghamChief Compliance Officer3× since Dec 30, 2025: 210,175 shares, avg. $7.63$1.6MMay 20, 2026
SaleDeborah StewartSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2× since Dec 30, 2025: 64,431 shares, avg. $7.78$501,483Feb 19, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatthew BuckhalterChief Financial Officer2× since Dec 30, 2025: 89,107 shares, avg. $7.83$697,387Feb 19, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.2% (2020) → 10.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.4% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Aveanna benefits from shifting private duty volumes to preferred payers that lift collections and margins, yet its low-moat home health operations face persistent labor intensity and reimbursement pressure.
Main risk: Ongoing state-by-state rate shifts and labor shortages threaten to constrain capacity and raise costs in Aveanna's reimbursement-dependent home health services, pressuring margins.
Aveanna is steering more of its private duty volumes toward preferred payers, which is already lifting collections and margins. Labor shortages and state-by-state rate shifts remain ongoing constraints on capacity and costs. Will the margin lift from the payer mix outrun these operational frictions or will they keep growth in check?
Compare Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−8.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)198.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B15.32× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.15× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.0× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.07 versus a price of $13.25, about 9% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AVAH?
Our model-based fair value for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is $12.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.25.
What is the quality score of AVAH?
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.79, optimistic scenario $19.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.07, about 9% lower versus a price of $13.25 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.79, optimistic scenario $19.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVAH use?
Our models discount Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc that is +27.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +27.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (+27.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.85 %: that much free cash flow Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc it is $12.07 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $13.25. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AVAH trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.25, fair value $12.07, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.07). For Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc the two are $1.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $13.25; our models calculate a fair value of $12.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVAH?
Our models span a range for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $5.79, base $12.07, optimistic $19.78 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $13.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVAH?
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 198.6%, debt of 6.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVAH from its 52-week high?
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc trades at $13.25, about 8% below its 52-week high of $14.38 and 113% above the low of $6.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $13.25, calculated fair value $12.07 (−9%), Quality Score 54/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVAH calculated?
We run Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $13.25. Our model-based fair value is $12.07, about 9% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.79 to $19.78). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The market capitalisation of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Earnings per share at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The net margin of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is 10.6% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2025 5.9%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is 199% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is −3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
The operating margin of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Revenue at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is growing +13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH)?
Earnings per share at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc are growing +38.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) carry?
The net debt of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 7, 2026