Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tritax Big Box REIT plc stock £2.33, price £1.48, upside +57.3%, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.02 – £1.99 · fair‑value band £1.45 – £4.38 · the £1.48 price screens below the £2.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Tritax Big Box REIT plc is the largest listed investor in high-quality logistics warehouse assets and controls the largest logistics-focused land platform in the UK. Tritax Big Box targets attractive and sustainable returns for shareholders by investing in and actively managing existing built investments and land suitable for logistics development.
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The Company focuses on well-located, modern logistics assets, typically letting institutional-grade clients on long-term leases with upward-on-only rent reviews and geographic and client diversification throughout the UK. Additionally, having adopted a approach, the Company has recently secured its first data center development opportunities (amounting to over 250MW), and has a pipeline of c.1-gigawatt of further opportunities, offering the potential to deliver exceptional returns on an accelerated basis.
The Company is a real estate investment trust to which Part 12 of the UK Corporation Tax Act 2010 applies, is listed on the Official List of the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a constituent of the FTSE 250, FTSE EPRA/NAREIT and MSCI indices.
The firm was established and on September 14, 2012 and incorporated in 2012 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) currently trades at £1.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.33, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £3.04 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the £1.48 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.04, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.45 (bear) to £4.38 (bull), the price of £1.48 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tritax Big Box REIT plc reported revenue of £345M in FY2025 versus £996M in FY2021, a compound −23.3%/yr. Reported net income was £363M in FY2025, compounding −21.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £4.0B Mid · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 11.3 · EPS (TTM) £0.1000 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 76.8% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 57%, BBOX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.45Fair Value £2.33Bull£4.38
Price £1.48 · Upside +57.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0157 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.4% vs 4.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.92% → 81%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.6% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Asset scale from logistics leases offers moderate advantages while thin evidence of a durable moat and typical high leverage remain the chief limitations.
Main risk: Larger rivals such as Segro or Prologis with greater resources could secure prime logistics acquisitions and tenants ahead of Tritax, limiting portfolio expansion and pressuring occupancy or rents.
Bull case: By leveraging its scale after the UK Commercial Property acquisition and power-first data-centre pipeline Tritax could attract stronger tenants and achieve higher rental growth than pure logistics peers.
Bear case: If larger rivals consistently outbid on assets and debt markets tighten Tritax might struggle to grow its portfolio or complete developments, leading to slower rental growth and higher vacancy exposure in single-tenant assets.
Tritax Big Box plans to acquire UK Commercial Property and create the UK's fourth-largest REIT by adding a complementary logistics portfolio heavy on last-mile and urban assets. The deal extends the company's long-running consolidation strategy yet introduces new execution demands around integrating portfolios and managing reversion potential. Will the added scale and asset mix strengthen rental growth more than it complicates operations?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 50 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+57.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)76.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)81.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)11.30× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.8× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tritax Big Box REIT plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BBOX.LSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.33 versus a price of £1.48, about +57% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BBOX?
Our model-based fair value for Tritax Big Box REIT plc is £2.33 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.48.
What is the quality score of BBOX?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.33 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.45, optimistic scenario £4.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tritax Big Box REIT plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.33, about +57% upside versus a price of £1.48 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.45, optimistic scenario £4.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £355M (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Tritax Big Box REIT plc pay a dividend?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc pays a dividend of £0.082 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 82.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.41 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tritax Big Box REIT plc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.7 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BBOX use?
Our models discount Tritax Big Box REIT plc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tritax Big Box REIT plc that is +9.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tritax Big Box REIT plc grew -6.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tritax Big Box REIT plc (+9.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.81 %: that much free cash flow Tritax Big Box REIT plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tritax Big Box REIT plc it is £2.33 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of £1.48. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Tritax Big Box REIT plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, BBOX trades below its calculated fair value: price £1.48, fair value £2.33, a gap of about +57% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BBOX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£1.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.33). For Tritax Big Box REIT plc the two are £0.8490 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tritax Big Box REIT plc worth?
The market values Tritax Big Box REIT plc at about £4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is £1.48; our models calculate a fair value of £2.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BBOX?
Our models span a range for Tritax Big Box REIT plc: cautious scenario £1.45, base £2.33, optimistic £4.38 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price £1.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BBOX?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 0.8, P/S 11.3, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of BBOX?
The PEG ratio of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 2.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tritax Big Box REIT plc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BBOX from its 52-week high?
Tritax Big Box REIT plc trades at £1.48, about 13% below its 52-week high of £1.71 and 8% above the low of £1.38 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tritax Big Box REIT plc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Prologis, Inc, Public Storage, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tritax Big Box REIT plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price £1.48, calculated fair value £2.33 (+57%), Quality Score 37/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BBOX calculated?
We run Tritax Big Box REIT plc through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £2.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tritax Big Box REIT plc currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was £1.48. Our model-based fair value is £2.33, about +57% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tritax Big Box REIT plc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (£1.45 to £4.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) come from?
Earnings per share at Tritax Big Box REIT plc grew +8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.3 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +7.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tritax Big Box REIT plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The market capitalisation of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is £4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 11.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Earnings per share at Tritax Big Box REIT plc are £0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The dividend yield of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 5.5% (payout 82.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The net margin of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 76.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
The operating margin of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is 81.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Revenue at Tritax Big Box REIT plc is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX)?
Earnings per share at Tritax Big Box REIT plc are growing −58.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tritax Big Box REIT plc (BBOX) carry?
The net debt of Tritax Big Box REIT plc is £2.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026