Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bird Construction Inc. stock C$17.97, price C$68.28, that is 73.7% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.09 – C$85.41 · fair‑value band C$13.38 – C$22.46 · the C$68.28 price screens above the C$17.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Bird Construction Inc. provides construction services in Canada. The company primarily focuses on projects in the industrial, building, and infrastructure markets.
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It constructs large, complex industrial buildings, including manufacturing, processing, distribution, and warehouse facilities; and provides electrical and instrumentation, high voltage testing and commissioning services, as well as power line construction, structural, mechanical, and piping, including off-site metal and modular fabrication.
It also involved in the civil construction operations, such as site preparation and earthworks, underground piping, utilities and foundation, drilling, blasting, and other concrete services, as well as contract mining, mine support, and greenfield and brownfield hydroelectric facilities; steel modular construction; and civil infrastructure operations comprising road, bridge, rail, and underground utilities installation.
In addition, the company constructs and retrofits institutional facilities, include healthcare, long term care, post-secondary education, transportation, public safety and defence facilities, as well as K-12 schools, public spaces, and government buildings; offers industrial maintenance, repair, and operations services; and constructs new construction and retrofit of warehousing, laboratories, manufacturing and processing facilities, data centers, office buildings, retail spaces, film studio infrastructure, hotels, and mixed-use mid- to high-rise residential buildings.
Further, it offers electrical and related system services, such as electrical and mechanical infrastructure design and installation, data communications, telecommunications, security, and lifecycle services.
It serves oil and gas, chemicals, liquefied natural gas, natural resources, nuclear, power, renewable energy, and water and wastewater sectors. Bird Construction Inc. was founded in 1920 and is based in Mississauga, Canada.
Stock analysis
Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) currently trades at C$68.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$17.97, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$30.97 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$68.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$2.52, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$13.38 (bear) to C$22.46 (bull), the price of C$68.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Bird Construction Inc. reported revenue of C$3.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$47.4M in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$3.8B (≈ $2.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 63.8 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) C$1.07 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 179% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −74%, BDT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$13.38Fair Value C$17.97BullC$22.46
Price C$68.28 · Downside -73.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.1972 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.5% vs 3.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.9% a year for the price and +13.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business draws strength from its lead role in Bell's AI data center and solid traditional construction margins with backlog growth, yet its main weakness remains the limited public signals and insufficient data for firm conclusions.
Main risk: Execution risks on high-tech projects such as the Bell AI data center could constrain incremental earnings from the strategic partnership.
Bird secured a role as lead builder for Bell's first AI data center under a broader strategic partnership that could bring more such projects. Traditional construction margins and backlog growth look solid but our models still see the stock as overvalued after the sharp run-up. Will the shift into high-tech infrastructure deliver enough incremental earnings to justify the current valuation or will execution risks cap the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−73.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bird Construction Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BDT
Frequently asked questions
Is Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$17.97 versus a price of C$68.28, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BDT?
Our model-based fair value for Bird Construction Inc. is C$17.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$68.28.
What is the quality score of BDT?
Bird Construction Inc. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$17.97 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$13.38, optimistic scenario C$22.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bird Construction Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$17.97, about 74% lower versus a price of C$68.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$13.38, optimistic scenario C$22.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Bird Construction Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$3.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Bird Construction Inc. pay a dividend?
Bird Construction Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Bird Construction Inc. pays a dividend of C$0.84 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2001. The payout ratio is 78.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.83 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bird Construction Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BDT use?
Our models discount Bird Construction Inc. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bird Construction Inc. that is +21.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bird Construction Inc. grew +17.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bird Construction Inc. (+21.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.25 %: that much free cash flow Bird Construction Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bird Construction Inc. it is C$17.97 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of C$68.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Bird Construction Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, BDT trades above its calculated fair value: price C$68.28, fair value C$17.97, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BDT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$68.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$17.97). For Bird Construction Inc. the two are C$50.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bird Construction Inc. worth?
The market values Bird Construction Inc. at about C$3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is C$68.28; our models calculate a fair value of C$17.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BDT?
Our models span a range for Bird Construction Inc.: cautious scenario C$13.38, base C$17.97, optimistic C$22.46 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price C$68.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BDT?
Bird Construction Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 63.8 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$17.97 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 8.8, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 32.4.
What is the PEG ratio of BDT?
The PEG ratio of Bird Construction Inc. is 2.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bird Construction Inc. (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BDT from its 52-week high?
Bird Construction Inc. trades at C$68.28, about 20% below its 52-week high of C$85.41 and 179% above the low of C$24.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$17.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bird Construction Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Larsen & Toubro Limited, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bird Construction Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price C$68.28, calculated fair value C$17.97 (−74%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BDT calculated?
We run Bird Construction Inc. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$17.97 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Bird Construction Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$68.28. Our model-based fair value is C$17.97, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bird Construction Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$22.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) come from?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc. grew +8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bird Construction Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The market capitalisation of Bird Construction Inc. is C$3.8B (≈ $2.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bird Construction Inc. is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc. are C$1.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 63.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The dividend yield of Bird Construction Inc. is 1.2% (payout 78.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The net margin of Bird Construction Inc. is 1.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bird Construction Inc. is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bird Construction Inc. is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
The operating margin of Bird Construction Inc. is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Revenue at Bird Construction Inc. is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bird Construction Inc. (BDT)?
Earnings per share at Bird Construction Inc. are growing +49.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bird Construction Inc. (BDT) carry?
The net debt of Bird Construction Inc. is C$160M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026