Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Big River Industries Ltd stock A$0.88, price A$1.15, that is 23.1% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.02 – A$2.39 · fair‑value band A$0.7310 – A$1.31 · the A$1.15 price screens above the A$0.8840 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Big River Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, distribution, and retail of timber and building products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Panels and Construction segments.
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It offers building materials, such as building products, pine framing, fibre cement, LVL, I-beams and laminated beams, structural and decorative hardwoods, plywood, sheet materials, timber moldings, particle board flooring, landscape and fencing supplies, timber flooring and decking, doors, door furniture, external timber cladding, builders' hardware, formwork materials, insulation, and others.
The company also provides formwork products, including formply, formwork LVL, PVC wall system, steel reinforcing products, and armourdeck steel decking, as well as formwork accessories; and bridge products comprising engineered plywood bridge decking, girder beams, and structural kerbing.
In addition, it offers flooring products, including engineered wood panels, oak flooring, hardwood stair tread, prefinished and uncoated engineered timber, and solid tongue and groove flooring; and flooring accessories consisting of trims/beading/scotia, foam and rubber flooring underlays, aluminum trims, floor coatings, adhesives, fixings/nails, and other products.
Further, the company provides plywood products, such as anti-slip, structural appearance grade, hardwood, sound barrier fencing, structural, T&G ply flooring and roofing products, and V-grooved plywood and panelling products; MaxiWall, an autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) panel; MaxiFloor, an AAC flooring product; and Armourcab, a decorative wood panelling.
It sells its products to professional builders, formworkers, construction companies, and building contractors in the residential, non-residential and infrastructure markets. Big River Industries Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Junction Hill, Australia.
Stock analysis
Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) currently trades at A$1.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8840, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$3.29 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$1.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.4100, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.7310 (bear) to A$1.31 (bull), the price of A$1.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Big River Industries Ltd reported revenue of A$426M in FY2026 versus A$409M in FY2022, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.9M in FY2026, compounding −30.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$108M (≈ $74.7M) Micro · P/E ratio 23.0 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0500 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −23%, BRI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.7310Fair Value A$0.8840BullA$1.31
Price A$1.15 · Downside -23.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0036 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$2.67A$4.29A$6.6279
Growth DCFA$2.66A$4.14A$6.1778
Residual IncomeA$0.8600A$0.8500A$0.880076
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$2.67A$4.29A$6.6279
Owner EarningsA$2.51A$4.05A$6.2575
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.58A$2.41A$3.4672
5Y EBITDA ExitA$2.21A$3.67A$5.4074
5Y P/E ExitA$1.25A$1.78A$2.3271
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.95A$2.81A$3.9767
10Y EBITDA ExitA$2.36A$3.63A$5.3968
10Y P/E ExitA$1.79A$2.40A$3.1365
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.3500A$1.39A$1.8964
Lynch FVA$0.3400A$0.4900A$0.640061
PEG = 1.0A$0.3400A$0.4900A$0.640057
EPVA$0.6000A$0.7200A$0.810074
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.2900A$0.5300A$0.730068
DDM Multi-StageA$0.2900A$0.4800A$0.560067
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.6600A$0.8800A$1.1163
P/S MultipleA$0.6600A$0.8800A$1.1158
P/B MultipleA$1.12A$1.49A$1.8755
EV/EBITA$0.7200A$1.17A$1.6264
EV/EBITDAA$1.78A$2.58A$3.3867
EV/RevenueA$0.5500A$1.04A$1.5452
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.3000A$0.4100A$0.610054
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$2.66A$4.14A$6.1778
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.58A$2.44A$3.5172
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.8600A$0.8500A$0.880076
ROIC CompounderA$0.6000A$0.7200A$0.810072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.5400A$0.7700A$1.0067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.1% vs −11.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.9% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Big River Industries Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Big River Industries Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BRI
Frequently asked questions
Is Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8840 versus a price of A$1.15, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BRI?
Our model-based fair value for Big River Industries Ltd is A$0.8840 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.15.
What is the quality score of BRI?
Big River Industries Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8840 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7310, optimistic scenario A$1.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Big River Industries Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8840, about 23% lower versus a price of A$1.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7310, optimistic scenario A$1.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Big River Industries Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$427M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Big River Industries Ltd pay a dividend?
Big River Industries Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Big River Industries Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.04 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 4, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 80.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.01 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Big River Industries Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BRI use?
Our models discount Big River Industries Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Big River Industries Ltd that is -10.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Big River Industries Ltd grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -10.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Big River Industries Ltd (-10.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.90 %: that much free cash flow Big River Industries Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Big River Industries Ltd it is A$0.8840 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$1.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Big River Industries Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, BRI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.15, fair value A$0.8840, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8840). For Big River Industries Ltd the two are A$0.2660 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Big River Industries Ltd worth?
The market values Big River Industries Ltd at about A$108M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$1.15; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8840 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BRI?
Our models span a range for Big River Industries Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7310, base A$0.8840, optimistic A$1.31 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$1.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BRI?
Big River Industries Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.8840 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 15.5. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Big River Industries Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BRI from its 52-week high?
Big River Industries Ltd trades at A$1.15, about 22% below its 52-week high of A$1.48 and 13% above the low of A$1.02 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8840 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Big River Industries Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Stella-Jones Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Big River Industries Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$1.15, calculated fair value A$0.8840 (−23%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BRI calculated?
We run Big River Industries Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.8840 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Big River Industries Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$1.15. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8840, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Big River Industries Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) come from?
Earnings per share at Big River Industries Ltd grew −11.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.0 %, EBIT margin −3.9 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Big River Industries Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The market capitalisation of Big River Industries Ltd is A$108M (≈ $74.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Big River Industries Ltd is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Earnings per share at Big River Industries Ltd are A$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The dividend yield of Big River Industries Ltd is 3.5% (payout 80.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The net margin of Big River Industries Ltd is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Big River Industries Ltd is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Big River Industries Ltd is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
The operating margin of Big River Industries Ltd is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Revenue at Big River Industries Ltd is growing +14.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?
Earnings per share at Big River Industries Ltd are growing +38.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) carry?
The net debt of Big River Industries Ltd is A$58.1M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026