Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Big River Industries Ltd A$1.94, price A$1.21, upside +60.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000BRI8

BR Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Big River Industries Ltd

BRI · AU

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value A$1.94 · Strongly undervalued (+60%)

!Quality 55/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·3.31% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (9/14)

!Narrow moat 29/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 14 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear A$1.21 to bull A$2.69 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 55/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.15 – A$2.39 · fair‑value band A$1.21 – A$2.69 · the A$1.21 price screens below the A$1.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Big River Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, distribution, and retail of timber and building products in Australia and New Zealand. The company operates through Panels and Construction segments. It offers building materials, such as building products, pine framing, fibre cement, LVL, I-beams and laminated beams, structural and decorative hardwoods, plywood, sheet materials, timber moldings, particle board flooring, landscape and fencing supplies, timber flooring and decking, doors, door furniture, external timber cladding, builders' hardware, formwork materials, insulation, and others. The company also provides formwork products, including formply, formwork LVL, PVC wall system, steel reinforcing products, and armourdeck steel decking, as well as formwork accessories; and bridge products comprising engineered plywood bridge decking, girder beams, and structural kerbing. In addition, it offers flooring products, including engineered wood panels, oak flooring, hardwood stair tread, prefinished and uncoated engineered timber, and solid tongue and groove flooring; and flooring accessories consisting of trims/beading/scotia, foam and rubber flooring underlays, aluminum trims, floor coatings, adhesives, fixings/nails, and other products. Further, the company provides plywood products, such as anti-slip, structural appearance grade, hardwood, sound barrier fencing, structural, T&G ply flooring and roofing products, and V-grooved plywood and panelling products; MaxiWall, an autoclaved aerated concrete (AAC) panel; MaxiFloor, an AAC flooring product; and Armourcab, a decorative wood panelling. It sells its products to professional builders, formworkers, construction companies, and building contractors in the residential, non-residential and infrastructure markets. Big River Industries Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Junction Hill, Australia.

Stock analysis

Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) currently trades at A$1.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.94, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$3.28 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$1.21 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.4000, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$1.21 (bear) to A$2.69 (bull), the price of A$1.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Big River Industries Ltd reported revenue of A$405M in FY2025 versus A$281M in FY2021, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was −A$14.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$136M (≈ $95.2M) · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0400 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin −3.6% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 60%, BRI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$1.21 Fair Value A$1.94 Bull A$2.69

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF A$2.29 A$3.76 A$5.84 79

Growth DCF A$2.25 A$3.52 A$5.19 78

5Y EBITDA Exit A$1.97 A$3.39 A$5.12 74

All 15 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF A$2.29 A$3.76 A$5.84 79

5Y Revenue Exit A$1.39 A$2.21 A$3.24 72

5Y EBITDA Exit A$1.97 A$3.39 A$5.12 74

10Y Revenue Exit A$1.72 A$2.54 A$3.69 66

10Y EBITDA Exit A$2.07 A$3.28 A$5.02 67

Earnings-Based

EPV A$0.4700 A$0.5600 A$0.6300 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM A$0.2500 A$0.4200 A$0.5400 68

DDM Multi-Stage A$0.2500 A$0.4000 A$0.4500 67

Multiples

EV/EBIT A$0.9700 A$1.38 A$1.79 65

EV/EBITDA A$1.97 A$2.71 A$3.45 67

EV/Revenue A$0.8100 A$1.26 A$1.72 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) A$0.5400 A$0.7200 A$1.08 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF A$2.25 A$3.52 A$5.19 78

Rev-Margin DCF A$1.39 A$2.23 A$3.30 72

Economic Profit

ROIC Compounder A$0.4700 A$0.5600 A$0.6300 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 36

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 32

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 53

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 52

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 100

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 89

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 29

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 9

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 75

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 61/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−2.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.2%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year

Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.9%

’14

’15

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’17

’18

’19

’20

’21

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’23

’24

’25

Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

3.3% (2019) → 4.1% (2024)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price

The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

−9.6%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+6.3%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.2% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.0%

Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%

Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%

Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%

Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 77 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 55 · Above median

Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 1% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −3% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.45× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.3× · Pricier than median

P/B 0.94× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.24× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 4.5× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 23

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0

PAST (return on equity)14 · sector 4

HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 92

DIVIDEND (yield)66 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD	$176.70	$194.37	+10%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI	$83.02	$101.34	+22%
Boise Cascade Company BCC	$79.00	$52.27	−34%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY	₹711.90	₹201.01	−72%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043	¥11.34	¥15.06	+33%
Canfor Corporation CFP	C$16.13	C$4.54	−72%
Interfor Corporation IFP	C$15.24	C$6.43	−58%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076	¥2.15	¥0.5400	−75%
Greenply Industries Limited GREENPLY	₹298.40	₹100.71	−66%
Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group 601996	¥2.99	¥3.01	+1%

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Big River Industries Ltd · Fair Value
A$1.94 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Big River Industries Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BRI

Frequently asked questions

Is Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.94 versus a price of A$1.21, about +60% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of BRI?

Our model-based fair value for Big River Industries Ltd is A$1.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.21.

What is the quality score of BRI?

Big River Industries Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.21, optimistic scenario A$2.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Big River Industries Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at A$1.94, about +60% upside versus a price of A$1.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.21, optimistic scenario A$2.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Big River Industries Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$400M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).

Does Big River Industries Ltd pay a dividend?

Big River Industries Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).

What growth is priced into Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Big River Industries Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BRI use?

Our models discount Big River Industries Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Big River Industries Ltd that is -9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Big River Industries Ltd grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies -9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Big River Industries Ltd (-9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.45 %: that much free cash flow Big River Industries Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Big River Industries Ltd it is A$1.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.21. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Big River Industries Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 23, 2026, BRI trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.21, fair value A$1.94, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BRI?

No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.94). For Big River Industries Ltd the two are A$0.7260 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Big River Industries Ltd worth?

The market values Big River Industries Ltd at about A$136M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.21; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.94 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BRI?

Our models span a range for Big River Industries Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.21, base A$1.94, optimistic A$2.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BRI?

Big River Industries Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.94 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.9 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 7.0.

How solid is the balance sheet of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Balance-sheet figures for Big River Industries Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BRI from its 52-week high?

Big River Industries Ltd trades at A$1.21, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$1.48 and at the low of A$1.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.94 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Big River Industries Ltd?

From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Century Plyboards (India) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Big River Industries Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.21, calculated fair value A$1.94 (+60%), Quality Score 55/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BRI calculated?

We run Big River Industries Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Big River Industries Ltd currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$1.21. Our model-based fair value is A$1.94, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Big River Industries Ltd right now?

The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$1.21 to A$2.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Big River Industries Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The market capitalisation of Big River Industries Ltd is A$136M (≈ $95.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Big River Industries Ltd is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Earnings per share at Big River Industries Ltd are A$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The dividend yield of Big River Industries Ltd is 3.3% (payout 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The net margin of Big River Industries Ltd is −3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Big River Industries Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Big River Industries Ltd is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

The operating margin of Big River Industries Ltd is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Revenue at Big River Industries Ltd is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Big River Industries Ltd (BRI)?

Earnings per share at Big River Industries Ltd are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Big River Industries Ltd (BRI) carry?

The net debt of Big River Industries Ltd is A$53.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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