CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CD PROJEKT SA stock PLN 67.47, price PLN 267, that is 74.7% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 76.45 PLN – 293.10 PLN · fair‑value band 49.82 PLN – 87.07 PLN · the 266.90 PLN price screens above the 67.47 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077.
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It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) currently trades at 266.90 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 67.47 PLN, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 89.38 PLN per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 266.90 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 11.22 PLN, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 49.82 PLN (bear) to 87.07 PLN (bull), the price of 266.90 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CD PROJEKT SA reported revenue of 867M PLN in FY2025 versus 888M PLN in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 527M PLN in FY2025, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.6B PLN (≈ $6.8B) Mid · P/E ratio 43.7 · P/S ratio 28.1 · EPS (TTM) 6.11 PLN · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 70.0% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 86% fair-value upside, at −75%, CDR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (11.22 PLN to 116.01 PLN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear49.82 PLNFair Value 67.47 PLNBull87.07 PLN
Price 266.90 PLN · Downside -74.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.24 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.3% vs 7.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 53%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+36.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.1% a year for the price and +32.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High margins and zero debt underscore brand strength in gaming IP, while limited signals on talent, processes and insider activity form the main weakness.
Main risk: Sales to clients such as Valve and Sony Interactive Entertainment account for over 10 percent each of consolidated revenues in recent periods, so any change in their strategies or terms could reduce access to customers or pressure margins on game sales.
Bull case: By leveraging its established IPs and human-crafted quality focus the company could retain loyal players and expand through licensing deals or new platforms while rivals struggle with execution.
Bear case: If major platforms alter terms or the new rival studio delivers a successful competing title the company could lose significant revenue share and face slower growth on its flagship franchises.
CD PROJEKT RED continues releasing substantial updates for Cyberpunk 2077 years after launch, with version 2.5 adding dual-wielding, cross-platform mods and new Edgerunners quests timed to the anime sequel's Netflix debut. This keeps player counts at three-year highs on Steam and extends the game's commercial life. Does the strategy mainly refresh earnings from an established title or risk slowing work on the next full projects?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 164 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CD PROJEKT SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CDR
Frequently asked questions
Is CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 67.47 PLN versus a price of 266.90 PLN, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CDR?
Our model-based fair value for CD PROJEKT SA is 67.47 PLN (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 266.90 PLN.
What is the quality score of CDR?
CD PROJEKT SA has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 67.47 PLN (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 49.82 PLN, optimistic scenario 87.07 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CD PROJEKT SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 67.47 PLN, about 75% lower versus a price of 266.90 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 49.82 PLN, optimistic scenario 87.07 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
CD PROJEKT SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 947M PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does CD PROJEKT SA pay a dividend?
CD PROJEKT SA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
CD PROJEKT SA has a dividend yield of 0.4%.
What growth is priced into CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CD PROJEKT SA would have to grow free cash flow by +24.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CDR use?
Our models discount CD PROJEKT SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CD PROJEKT SA that is +24.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CD PROJEKT SA grew -16.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +24.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CD PROJEKT SA (+24.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.02 %: that much free cash flow CD PROJEKT SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CD PROJEKT SA it is 67.47 PLN per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 266.90 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is CD PROJEKT SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CDR trades above its calculated fair value: price 266.90 PLN, fair value 67.47 PLN, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (266.90 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (67.47 PLN). For CD PROJEKT SA the two are 199.43 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CD PROJEKT SA worth?
The market values CD PROJEKT SA at about 26.6B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 266.90 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 67.47 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CDR?
Our models span a range for CD PROJEKT SA: cautious scenario 49.82 PLN, base 67.47 PLN, optimistic 87.07 PLN per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 266.90 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CDR?
CD PROJEKT SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 67.47 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 43.5. Other multiples: P/B 8.1, P/S 28.1, EV/EBITDA 46.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Balance-sheet figures for CD PROJEKT SA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CDR from its 52-week high?
CD PROJEKT SA trades at 266.90 PLN, about 9% below its 52-week high of 293.10 PLN and 23% above the low of 217.40 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 67.47 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CD PROJEKT SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CD PROJEKT SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 266.90 PLN, calculated fair value 67.47 PLN (−75%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDR calculated?
We run CD PROJEKT SA through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 67.47 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. CD PROJEKT SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 266.90 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 67.47 PLN, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CD PROJEKT SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (87.07 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) come from?
Earnings per share at CD PROJEKT SA grew +10.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CD PROJEKT SA
How large is the market capitalisation of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The market capitalisation of CD PROJEKT SA is 26.6B PLN (≈ $6.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CD PROJEKT SA is 28.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Earnings per share at CD PROJEKT SA are 6.11 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The dividend yield of CD PROJEKT SA is 0.4% (payout 16.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The net margin of CD PROJEKT SA is 70.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CD PROJEKT SA is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CD PROJEKT SA is 14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
The operating margin of CD PROJEKT SA is 61.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Revenue at CD PROJEKT SA is growing +39.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
Earnings per share at CD PROJEKT SA are growing +109% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) hold?
CD PROJEKT SA holds more cash than debt, 88.1M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026