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Chemring Group PLC (CHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chemring Group PLC stock £1.86, price £5.65, that is 67.1% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials GB · ISIN GB00B45C9X44

CG Chemring Group PLC logo Some data Nov 1, 2026

Chemring Group PLC

CHG · LSE
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 67% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 57/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.3 %/yr in GBP)
Thin margins · 6.6% net margin (TTM)
1.4% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 48/100 · thin data
Some data
Profit last quarter 70% below a year ago.
Fair value £1.86 · Strongly overvalued (−67.1%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

£6.35 £2.34 Fair Value £1.86 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £2.34 – £6.35 · fair‑value band £1.25 – £2.05 · the £5.65 price screens above the £1.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.

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Company profile

Chemring Group PLC provides countermeasures, sensors, information, and energy products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia pacific, and internationally.

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The company offers sensors and information products, such as point chemical detectors, sensors, JSLSCAD, and I-SCAD; R Visor, 3D radars, husky mounted detection system, groundshark, MDS-10, and groundhunters; resolve, locate, LOCATE-T, and viper products; and advisory, research, and design and engineering services.

It also provides countermeasures and energetics products, including aerodynamic and countermeasure flare; chaf cart and pack; seduction and distraction cart; initiator, separation and explosive bolts, nuts, thrusters, cutters, and pin pullers and pushers; pressure cartridges, initiators, actuators, retractors and systems, time delay devices, ejection handles and sequencers, gas generators, cutters, canopy remover thruster, and thermal battery; wing, fin, elevon deployment actuators, wing and tail retention systems, separation nuts, pyrovalves, and safe and arm devices; joint combined aircrew system, system communication and oxygen, and altitude combined aircrew system tester; HMX, RDX, NTO, Alkyl-NENA, and acetic acid; and advanced performance bangalore torpedo, SX4, PE8, charge demolition user filled conical and linear, igniter safety fuze electric, detonating cord booster, demolition detonator electric and non-electric, detonating cord, and safety fuze.

In addition, the company offers metron actuators and gas generators; cutters, igniters and fuzeheads, canopy severance cords and explosive transmission cords; extruded double base propellant for ejection systems and rocket motors; and PED MK 2, breach MC, shrike exploder, mini shrike, long range initiation system, WASP, pigstick, hotrod, mini and midi disruptor, freeze neutralizing kit, fuse extractor, and rocket wrench.

Chemring Group PLC was incorporated in 1905 and is headquartered in Romsey, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Chemring Group PLC (CHG) currently trades at £5.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.86, 67.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £3.63 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the £5.65 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.5400, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: £1.25 (bear) to £2.05 (bull), the price of £5.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Chemring Group PLC reported revenue of £498M in FY2025 versus £393M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £48.2M in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap £1.6B Mid · P/E ratio 47.1 · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) £0.1200 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −67%, CHG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear £1.25 Fair Value £1.86 Bull £2.05
Price £5.65 · Downside -67.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0390 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income £1.25 £1.41 £1.80 76
EPV £1.63 £1.86 £2.05 74
ROIC Compounder £1.68 £2.06 £2.51 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £1.21 £4.22 £5.68 64
Lynch FV £0.9800 £1.40 £1.82 61
PEG = 1.0 £0.9800 £1.40 £1.82 57
EPV £1.63 £1.86 £2.05 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.6100 £1.09 £1.49 68
DDM Multi-Stage £0.6100 £1.00 £1.17 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple £2.81 £3.74 £4.68 63
P/S Multiple £2.27 £3.03 £3.79 58
P/B Multiple £2.73 £3.63 £4.54 55
EV/EBIT £3.13 £4.28 £5.44 66
EV/EBITDA £3.28 £4.49 £5.69 67
EV/Revenue £1.99 £2.98 £3.97 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.4000 £0.5400 £0.8100 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income £1.25 £1.41 £1.80 76
ROIC Compounder £1.68 £2.06 £2.51 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £2.42 £3.45 £4.49 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 56
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 40
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 74
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 51
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 70
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 38
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 47
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 85
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 7.7% / 15.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

CHG screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 239 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −67.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 13.1% · Above median
Return on assets 5.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 6.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.24× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 47.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 18.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.99× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)33 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)52 · sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)29 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
TransDigm Group TDG $1,147 $1,261 +10% vs CHG
Honeywell Aerospace Inc HONA $154.15 $169.57 +10% vs CHG
General Dynamics Corporation GD $372.59 $274.19 −26% vs CHG
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $557.54 $382.98 −31% vs CHG
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $643.15 $439.21 −32% vs CHG
Airbus SE AIR €196.08 €112.14 −43% vs CHG
RTX Corporation RTX $199.80 $88.19 −56% vs CHG
Rheinmetall AG RHM €1,000 €313.19 −69% vs CHG
General Electric Company GE $301.80 $92.26 −69% vs CHG
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $199.22 $52.65 −74% vs CHG

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Chemring Group PLC: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chemring Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHG.LSE

Frequently asked questions

Is Chemring Group PLC (CHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.86 versus a price of £5.65, about 67% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHG?
Our model-based fair value for Chemring Group PLC is £1.86 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £5.65.
What is the quality score of CHG?
Chemring Group PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.86 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.25, optimistic scenario £2.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chemring Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.86, about 67% lower versus a price of £5.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.25, optimistic scenario £2.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Chemring Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £512M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Chemring Group PLC pay a dividend?
Chemring Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chemring Group PLC it is £1.86 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of £5.65. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chemring Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, CHG trades above its calculated fair value: price £5.65, fair value £1.86, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£5.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.86). For Chemring Group PLC the two are £3.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chemring Group PLC worth?
The market values Chemring Group PLC at about £1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is £5.65; our models calculate a fair value of £1.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHG?
Our models span a range for Chemring Group PLC: cautious scenario £1.25, base £1.86, optimistic £2.05 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price £5.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHG?
Chemring Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.1 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 4.1, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CHG?
The PEG ratio of Chemring Group PLC is 1.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chemring Group PLC (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHG from its 52-week high?
Chemring Group PLC trades at £5.65, about 11% below its 52-week high of £6.35 and 24% above the low of £4.54 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chemring Group PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chemring Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price £5.65, calculated fair value £1.86 (−67%), Quality Score 57/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHG calculated?
We run Chemring Group PLC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £1.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Chemring Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was £5.65. Our model-based fair value is £1.86, about 67% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chemring Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Chemring Group PLC

How large is the market capitalisation of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The market capitalisation of Chemring Group PLC is £1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chemring Group PLC is 3.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Earnings per share at Chemring Group PLC are £0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 47.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The dividend yield of Chemring Group PLC is 1.4% (payout 67.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The net margin of Chemring Group PLC is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chemring Group PLC is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chemring Group PLC is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
The operating margin of Chemring Group PLC is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Revenue at Chemring Group PLC is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chemring Group PLC (CHG)?
Earnings per share at Chemring Group PLC are growing −70.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Chemring Group PLC (CHG) generate?
The free cash flow of Chemring Group PLC is −£5.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Chemring Group PLC (CHG) carry?
The net debt of Chemring Group PLC is £89.0M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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