CME Group Inc (CME) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CME Group Inc stock $201, price $307, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $141.92 – $315.71 · fair‑value band $110.17 – $287.97 · the $307.24 price screens above the $200.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide.
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It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, and foreign exchange; and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities, as well as fixed income and foreign currency trading services.
The company provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services.
It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007.
The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
CME Group Inc (CME) currently trades at $307.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $200.80, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $200.80 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $307.24 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $88.03, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $110.17 (bear) to $287.97 (bull), the price of $307.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CME Group Inc reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $111B Large · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 16.0 · EPS (TTM) $12.29 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 63.5% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −35%, CME screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$110.17Fair Value $200.80Bull$287.97
Price $307.24 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleJonathan L MarcusSr MD General Counsel3,291 shares at $313.37$1.0MMar 17, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKen VromanChief Transformation Officer5,160 shares at $309.00$1.6MMar 12, 2026
SaleBryan T DurkinDirector4,200 shares at $309.65$1.3MFeb 23, 2026
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 30 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.7% vs 11.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 65%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong exchange network effects and pricing power underpin a durable advantage, while average human capital and innovation signals limit further differentiation.
Main risk: Perpetual futures contracts offered by platforms such as Kalshi or offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid could draw trading volume away from CME's traditional futures products and pressure its margins in derivatives markets.
Bull case: CME could expand its own offerings in compute futures and other AI-related risk management products to capture new hedging demand from the AI sector while maintaining its regulatory moat.
Bear case: If perpetual futures and decentralized platforms gain significant traction under favorable regulation, CME could lose substantial trading volume in key derivatives segments and face sustained margin pressure.
CME Group is advancing its Globex migration to Google Cloud ahead of schedule, targeting client testing at the new Aurora facility by mid-2027 with access to both cloud-managed services and co-location. This builds on its ability to turn hedging demand across all asset classes into steady transaction and market data fees. Will the added flexibility mainly strengthen its liquidity moat or risk spreading activity too thin across platforms?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.1% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)63.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)65.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.0× · Pricier than median
P/B3.87× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)16.00× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow26.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA22.3× · Pricier than median
PEG5.17× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)65· sector 71
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 81
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CME Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CME
Frequently asked questions
Is CME Group Inc (CME) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $200.80 versus a price of $307.24, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CME?
Our model-based fair value for CME Group Inc is $200.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $307.24.
What is the quality score of CME?
CME Group Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CME Group Inc (CME)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $200.80 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $110.17, optimistic scenario $287.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CME Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $200.80, about 35% lower versus a price of $307.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $110.17, optimistic scenario $287.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CME Group Inc (CME)?
CME Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does CME Group Inc pay a dividend?
CME Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into CME Group Inc (CME)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CME Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CME use?
Our models discount CME Group Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CME Group Inc that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CME Group Inc (CME) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CME Group Inc grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CME Group Inc (CME) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CME Group Inc (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow CME Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CME Group Inc (CME)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CME Group Inc it is $200.80 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $307.24. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CME Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CME trades above its calculated fair value: price $307.24, fair value $200.80, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CME?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($307.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($200.80). For CME Group Inc the two are $106.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CME Group Inc worth?
The market values CME Group Inc at about $111B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $307.24; our models calculate a fair value of $200.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CME?
Our models span a range for CME Group Inc: cautious scenario $110.17, base $200.80, optimistic $287.97 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $307.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CME?
CME Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $200.80 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 24.0. Other multiples: PEG 5.2, P/B 3.9, P/S 16.0, EV/EBITDA 22.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CME?
The PEG ratio of CME Group Inc is 5.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CME Group Inc (CME)?
Balance-sheet figures for CME Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CME from its 52-week high?
CME Group Inc trades at $307.24, about 3% below its 52-week high of $315.71 and 41% above the low of $217.56 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $200.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CME Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, Deutsche Börse AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CME Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $307.24, calculated fair value $200.80 (−35%), Quality Score 63/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CME calculated?
We run CME Group Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $200.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. CME Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $307.24. Our model-based fair value is $200.80, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CME Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($287.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($110.17 to $287.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of CME Group Inc (CME) come from?
Earnings per share at CME Group Inc grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.1 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CME Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The market capitalisation of CME Group Inc is $111B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CME Group Inc is 16.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CME Group Inc (CME)?
Earnings per share at CME Group Inc are $12.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The dividend yield of CME Group Inc is 1.7% (payout 41.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The net margin of CME Group Inc is 63.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CME Group Inc is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CME Group Inc (CME)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CME Group Inc is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CME Group Inc (CME)?
The operating margin of CME Group Inc is 65.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CME Group Inc (CME)?
Revenue at CME Group Inc is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CME Group Inc (CME)?
Earnings per share at CME Group Inc are growing +16.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CME Group Inc (CME) hold?
CME Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $666M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026