CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CareTrust REIT Inc. stock $31.01, price $38.21, that is 18.8% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.32 – $43.40 · fair‑value band $15.90 – $58.82 · the $38.21 price screens above the $31.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing and other healthcare-related properties.
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As of December 31, 2025, CareTrust REIT owned, directly or indirectly in consolidated joint ventures, and leased to independent operators, 407 skilled nursing facilities (each, a SNF), senior housing communities and other properties consisting of 37,628 operational beds and units located in 32 states and the United Kingdom, with the highest concentration of properties by rental income located in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee.
As of December 31, 2025, we also had other real estate related investments consisting of four preferred equity investments, 16 real estate secured loans receivable and five mezzanine loans receivable with a carrying value of 899.3 million US dollars and one financing receivable with a carrying value of 92.2 million US dollars.
CareTrust REIT, Inc. was established and incorporated on October 29, 2013 and is based in Dana Point, United States.
Stock analysis
CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) currently trades at $38.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.01, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $43.19 per share, and 3 of the 15 models we run sit above the $38.21 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.37, and 12 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.90 (bear) to $58.82 (bull), the price of $38.21 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CareTrust REIT Inc. reported revenue of $477M in FY2025 versus $190M in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $321M in FY2025, compounding +45.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B Mid · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 16.0 · EPS (TTM) $1.59 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 59.2% · Return on equity 7.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −19%, CTRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$15.90Fair Value $31.01Bull$58.82
Price $38.21 · Downside -18.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0727 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$13.08$14.02$15.5376
FCF DCF$22.76$38.84$85.7775
Growth DCF$21.46$43.19$84.6974
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$22.76$38.84$85.7775
5Y Revenue Exit$11.36$20.74$38.8869
5Y EBITDA Exit$18.71$36.48$69.2071
10Y Revenue Exit$14.32$28.07$41.6365
10Y EBITDA Exit$19.85$42.17$82.8464
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$9.06$18.49$28.7166
DDM Multi-Stage$9.06$15.76$19.4567
Multiples
P/S Multiple$9.02$12.02$15.0358
P/B Multiple$23.21$30.95$38.6855
EV/EBIT$17.80$24.63$31.4766
EV/EBITDA$17.42$24.12$30.8367
EV/Revenue$6.36$10.25$14.1353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$7.74$10.37$15.4754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$21.46$43.19$84.6974
Economic Profit
Residual Income$13.08$14.02$15.5376
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.0% vs 14.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.58% → 67%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+26.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
The revenue jump in 2026 (+31.7%) comes with 26% more shares (acquisition or merger paid in stock). Per share it is about +4.3%. The comparison above is unreliable in such a year.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.3% a year for the price and +23.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: High cash conversion supports durability in its healthcare facilities niche while low innovation and limited scale advantages constrain further strength.
Main risk: Scrutiny by the UK Competition and Markets Authority on large care home acquisitions could impose hold-separate orders or require divestments, delaying or reducing gains from the LNT UK portfolio expansion.
Bull case: Strong operator relationships and equity financing could help the company secure deals despite regulatory hurdles and maintain attractive yields through disciplined underwriting in both U.S. and U.K. markets.
Bear case: Prolonged CMA reviews or reimbursement cuts could stall the UK expansion and erode rental income from tenants, forcing costly repositioning of properties and slowing overall portfolio growth.
CareTrust is structuring its large UK deal to start with steady rental income from new care homes before transitioning them into its senior housing operating portfolio. This approach balances immediate cash flows with the potential for higher returns once stabilized under direct management. Will the shift strengthen its platform through operational control or expose it to greater execution risks than pure leasing?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Healthcare Facilities · 25 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CareTrust REIT Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTRE
Frequently asked questions
Is CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.01 versus a price of $38.21, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CTRE?
Our model-based fair value for CareTrust REIT Inc. is $31.01 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.21.
What is the quality score of CTRE?
CareTrust REIT Inc. has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.01 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.90, optimistic scenario $58.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CareTrust REIT Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.01, about 19% lower versus a price of $38.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.90, optimistic scenario $58.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
CareTrust REIT Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $615M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does CareTrust REIT Inc. pay a dividend?
CareTrust REIT Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
CareTrust REIT Inc. pays a dividend of $1.51 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 165% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 94.7%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.98 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CareTrust REIT Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CTRE use?
Our models discount CareTrust REIT Inc. at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CareTrust REIT Inc. that is +12.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CareTrust REIT Inc. grew +22.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CareTrust REIT Inc. (+12.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.23 %: that much free cash flow CareTrust REIT Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CareTrust REIT Inc. it is $31.01 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $38.21. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is CareTrust REIT Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CTRE trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.21, fair value $31.01, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.01). For CareTrust REIT Inc. the two are $7.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CareTrust REIT Inc. worth?
The market values CareTrust REIT Inc. at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $38.21; our models calculate a fair value of $31.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTRE?
Our models span a range for CareTrust REIT Inc.: cautious scenario $15.90, base $31.01, optimistic $58.82 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $38.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTRE?
CareTrust REIT Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.01 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 42.5 (reported for FY2025: 24.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2017, FY2019 ex one-offs: 26.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.4, P/S 16.0, EV/EBITDA 20.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CTRE?
The PEG ratio of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 1.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for CareTrust REIT Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.7%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTRE from its 52-week high?
CareTrust REIT Inc. trades at $38.21, about 12% below its 52-week high of $43.40 and 10% above the low of $34.86 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CareTrust REIT Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Welltower Inc, Ventas, Inc, Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc, Healthpeak Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CareTrust REIT Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $38.21, calculated fair value $31.01 (−19%), Quality Score 50/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTRE calculated?
We run CareTrust REIT Inc. through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $31.01 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. CareTrust REIT Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $38.21. Our model-based fair value is $31.01, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CareTrust REIT Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($15.90 to $58.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) come from?
Earnings per share at CareTrust REIT Inc. grew +11.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +4.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CareTrust REIT Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The market capitalisation of CareTrust REIT Inc. is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 16.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Earnings per share at CareTrust REIT Inc. are $1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The dividend yield of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 3.9% (payout 165%, on adjusted earnings, reported 94.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The net margin of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 59.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
The operating margin of CareTrust REIT Inc. is 67.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Revenue at CareTrust REIT Inc. is growing +33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)?
Earnings per share at CareTrust REIT Inc. are growing −0.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE) carry?
The net debt of CareTrust REIT Inc. is $696M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026