Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. stock $10.54, price $31.55, that is 66.6% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
CVLG · USOur calculation puts a fair price 67% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.64 – $49.88 · fair‑value band $7.86 – $14.60 · the $31.55 price screens above the $10.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Company profile
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing.
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The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards, such as 1,000 miles in 22 hours or 15-minute delivery windows.
The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods with the goal of three to five years in length using equipment either owned or leased by the company.
The Managed Freight segment offers brokerage services, including logistics capacity by outsourcing the carriage of customers' freight to third parties; and transport management services, such as logistics services on a contractual basis to customers who prefer to outsource their logistics needs.
The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers, as well as shuttle and switching services related to shuttling containers and trailers. The company also engages in used equipment sales and leasing business.
It serves transportation companies, such as parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, and third-party logistics providers; and traditional truckload customers, including manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers.
The company was formerly known as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. and changed its name to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. in May 2007. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) currently trades at $31.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.54, 67% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $7.63 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $31.55 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.74, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.86 (bear) to $14.60 (bull), the price of $31.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $7.2M in FY2025, compounding −41.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $837M Small · P/E ratio 193.3 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −67%, CVLG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 15 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $963,535 and none bought.
- SaleJoey BallardEVP, Chief People & Safety Off2× since May 22, 2026: 12,000 shares, avg. $38.50$462,031Jun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleJoey B HoganDirector2× since Apr 28, 2026: 27,500 shares, avg. $36.82$1.0MMay 27, 2026
- SaleD Michael KramerDirector2,650 shares at $34.72$92,008Apr 29, 2026
- SaleJames S Grant IIIEVP and CFO22,388 shares at $30.75$688,431Apr 20, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleJacqueline F Parker10% owner2× since Feb 9, 2026: 303,800 shares, avg. $29.14$8.9MFeb 20, 2026
- SaleDavid Ray ParkerChairman and CEO, Director, 10% owner135,000 shares at $29.44$4.0MFeb 17, 2026
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Earlier news
- Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Announces Timing of Third Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call
- Covenant Logistics Eyes Higher-Return Growth as Freight Markets Recover
- Covenant Logistics (CVLG): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?
Compare Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Net margin by industry
- P/B ratio by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $58.41 | $93.46 | +60% | vs CVLG |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $94.94 | $112.09 | +18% | vs CVLG |
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $164.92 | $174.14 | +6% | vs CVLG |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$28.74 | C$19.85 | −31% | vs CVLG |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $26.95 | $16.48 | −39% | vs CVLG |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $27.81 | $16.20 | −42% | vs CVLG |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥3.98 | ¥1.96 | −51% | vs CVLG |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $127.91 | $52.83 | −59% | vs CVLG |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $176.95 | $71.58 | −60% | vs CVLG |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $331.90 | $126.27 | −62% | vs CVLG |
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Key figures of Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
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