Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. $11.68, price $34.15, upside -65.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
CVLG · USStructural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.64 – $49.88 · fair‑value band $8.72 – $13.38 · the $34.15 price screens above the $11.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing.
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Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards, such as 1,000 miles in 22 hours or 15-minute delivery windows. The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods with the goal of three to five years in length using equipment either owned or leased by the company. The Managed Freight segment offers brokerage services, including logistics capacity by outsourcing the carriage of customers' freight to third parties; and transport management services, such as logistics services on a contractual basis to customers who prefer to outsource their logistics needs. The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers, as well as shuttle and switching services related to shuttling containers and trailers. The company also engages in used equipment sales and leasing business. It serves transportation companies, such as parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, and third-party logistics providers; and traditional truckload customers, including manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers. The company was formerly known as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. and changed its name to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. in May 2007. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG) currently trades at $34.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.68, implying the stock looks roughly 192.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $10.82 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $34.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.13, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.72 (bear) to $13.38 (bull), the price of $34.15 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $7.2M in FY2025, compounding −41.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 473.7 · P/S ratio 2.94 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −66%, CVLG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 15 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Revenue & earnings trend
CVLG screens 192% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Earlier news
- Covenant Logistics Eyes Higher-Return Growth as Freight Markets Recover
- Covenant Logistics (CVLG): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?
Compare Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 47 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $177.31 | $174.80 | −1% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $177.67 | $72.78 | −59% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $125.04 | $112.10 | −10% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $67.09 | $54.86 | −18% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $348.38 | $129.94 | −63% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $32.50 | $12.37 | −62% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $131.71 | $45.89 | −65% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $34.79 | $8.24 | −76% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.50 | ¥1.27 | −72% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$26.57 | C$19.84 | −25% |
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Key figures of Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
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