Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.1B
Covenant Logistics Group
CVLG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $7.43 to $12.16 (+63.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −23.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.64 – $49.88 · fair‑value band $9.12 – $13.64 · the $34.65 price screens above the $12.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) currently trades at $34.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.16, implying the stock looks roughly 64.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Covenant Logistics Group generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 14.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at $42.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.12 (bear case) to $13.64 (bull case); at $34.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -65%, CVLG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($10.82) versus Dividend Discount ($3.13). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing.
Full company description
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards, such as 1,000 miles in 22 hours or 15-minute delivery windows. The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods with the goal of three to five years in length using equipment either owned or leased by the company. The Managed Freight segment offers brokerage services, including logistics capacity by outsourcing the carriage of customers' freight to third parties; and transport management services, such as logistics services on a contractual basis to customers who prefer to outsource their logistics needs. The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers, as well as shuttle and switching services related to shuttling containers and trailers. The company also engages in used equipment sales and leasing business. It serves transportation companies, such as parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, and third-party logistics providers; and traditional truckload customers, including manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers. The company was formerly known as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. and changed its name to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. in May 2007. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Covenant Logistics Group reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was $7.2M in FY2025, compounding −41.2%/yr from FY2021.
CVLG screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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