California Water Service Group (CWT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of California Water Service Group stock $24.60, price $51.04, that is 51.8% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.92 – $64.64 · fair‑value band $22.37 – $41.31 · the $51.04 price screens above the $24.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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California Water Service Group, through its subsidiaries, provides water utility and other related services in California, Washington, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Texas.
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It is involved in the production, purchase, storage, treatment, testing, distribution, and sale of water for domestic, industrial, public, and irrigation uses, as well as for fire protection services.
The company offers its services to approximately 500,000 customer connections in 20 separate districts; approximately 6,800 water and wastewater customer connections on the islands of Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and Hawaii; approximately 38,500 customer connections in the Tacoma, Olympia, Graham, Spanaway, Puyallup, Rainier, Yelm, and Gig Harbor areas; and approximately 11,800 water and wastewater customer connections in Rio Communities, Rio Del Oro, Meadow Lake, Indian Hills, Squaw Valley, Elephant Butte, Morningstar, Sandia Knolls, Juan Tomas, Monterey, and Cypress Gardens systems.
The company also engages in the provision of non-regulated water-related services, including operating of municipally owned water systems, privately owned water, and recycled water distribution systems; water system operation, meter reading, and billing services to private companies and municipalities; leasing of communication antenna sites on its properties; and billing of optional third-party insurance programs to its residential customers.
In addition, it provides wastewater collection and treatment services. California Water Service Group was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock analysis
California Water Service Group (CWT) currently trades at $51.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.60, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $31.95 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $51.04 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.34, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $22.37 (bear) to $41.31 (bull), the price of $51.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
California Water Service Group reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $791M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was $128M in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B Mid · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 2.87 · EPS (TTM) $2.26 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −52%, CWT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.37Fair Value $24.60Bull$41.31
Price $51.04 · Downside -51.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8189 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleLester A SnowDirector2× since May 27, 2026: 1,600 shares, avg. $45.94$73,505Sep 1, 2026
SaleThomas M KrummelDirector2× since May 21, 2026: 7,400 shares, avg. $46.84$346,579Aug 13, 2026
SaleMichael S Mares JRVice President, Operations3,892 shares at $44.00$171,248Mar 20, 2026
SaleMichael B LuuSr. VP Corp Svcs & Chief Risk740 shares at $44.53$32,946Mar 20, 2026
SaleMichelle R MortensenVP, Corp Sec &Chief of Staff924 shares at $43.34$40,046Dec 23, 2025
BuyJames Patrick LynchSVP CFO and Treasurer550 shares at $42.80$23,540Dec 10, 2025
Plus 28 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.9% vs 7.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 18%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The regulated water utility delivers stable operations through rate-base returns yet is limited by negative free cash flow and high leverage from heavy infrastructure spending.
Main risk: Regulatory decisions on the timing and size of rate hikes may fail to match rising investment needs, directly squeezing cash generation and allowed returns on the rate base.
California Water Service Group must fund large infrastructure upgrades through capital spending that typically exceeds its operating cash flows. Regulators approve rate hikes to deliver returns on that rate base, yet the timing and size of those decisions directly shape cash generation. Our models see it as overvalued. Will fresh approvals offset the rising cost of capital, or will the gap between investment and allowed returns widen?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)12.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)31.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.87× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.4× · Pricier than median
PEG2.22× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)34· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)57· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "California Water Service Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWT
Frequently asked questions
Is California Water Service Group (CWT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.60 versus a price of $51.04, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWT?
Our model-based fair value for California Water Service Group is $24.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.04.
What is the quality score of CWT?
California Water Service Group has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.60 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.37, optimistic scenario $41.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the California Water Service Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.60, about 52% lower versus a price of $51.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.37, optimistic scenario $41.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
California Water Service Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does California Water Service Group pay a dividend?
California Water Service Group currently shows a dividend yield of 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of California Water Service Group (CWT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
California Water Service Group pays a dividend of $1.31 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 57.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For California Water Service Group it is $24.60 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $51.04. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is California Water Service Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CWT trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.04, fair value $24.60, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.60). For California Water Service Group the two are $26.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is California Water Service Group worth?
The market values California Water Service Group at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $51.04; our models calculate a fair value of $24.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWT?
Our models span a range for California Water Service Group: cautious scenario $22.37, base $24.60, optimistic $41.31 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $51.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CWT?
California Water Service Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 33.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of CWT?
The PEG ratio of California Water Service Group is 2.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Balance-sheet figures for California Water Service Group (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWT from its 52-week high?
California Water Service Group trades at $51.04, about 2% below its 52-week high of $52.09 and 23% above the low of $41.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to California Water Service Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is California Water Service Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $51.04, calculated fair value $24.60 (−52%), Quality Score 36/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWT calculated?
We run California Water Service Group through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $24.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. California Water Service Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $51.04. Our model-based fair value is $24.60, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with California Water Service Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($41.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($22.37 to $41.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of California Water Service Group (CWT) come from?
Earnings per share at California Water Service Group grew +8.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of California Water Service Group
How large is the market capitalisation of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The market capitalisation of California Water Service Group is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of California Water Service Group is 2.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Earnings per share at California Water Service Group are $2.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The dividend yield of California Water Service Group is 2.6% (payout 57.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The net margin of California Water Service Group is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of California Water Service Group is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of California Water Service Group is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of California Water Service Group (CWT)?
The operating margin of California Water Service Group is 31.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Revenue at California Water Service Group is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at California Water Service Group (CWT)?
Earnings per share at California Water Service Group are growing +2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does California Water Service Group (CWT) generate?
The free cash flow of California Water Service Group is −$214M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does California Water Service Group (CWT) carry?
The net debt of California Water Service Group is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026