Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Erste Bank Polska S.A. stock PLN 636, price PLN 786, that is 19.1% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 141.54 PLN – 812.40 PLN · fair‑value band 437.30 PLN – 795.55 PLN · the 786.40 PLN price screens above the 636.44 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Erste Bank Polska S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, small or medium-sized enterprises, corporate clients, and public sector institutions.
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The company offers personal account, savings accounts and term deposits, currencies, internet and mobile banking, and contactless payments, and debit and credit solutions.
It also provides consumer loans and home mortgages; mutual funds, including pension schemes and various investment programmes; and tourist/travel, motor, and home insurance products, as well as bancassurance products.
In addition, the company offers foreign exchange, bank guarantees, and foreign letter of credit. The company was formerly known as Santander Bank Polska S.A. and changed its name to Erste Bank Polska S.A. in April 2026.
Erste Bank Polska S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) currently trades at 786.40 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 636.44 PLN, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 771.47 PLN per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 786.40 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 214.72 PLN, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 437.30 PLN (bear) to 795.55 PLN (bull), the price of 786.40 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Erste Bank Polska S.A. reported revenue of 17.9B PLN in FY2025 versus 9.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding +55.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 80.4B PLN (≈ $20.6B) Large · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 5.15 · EPS (TTM) 52.44 PLN · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 35.5% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −19%, EBP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear437.30 PLNFair Value 636.44 PLNBull795.55 PLN
Price 786.40 PLN · Downside -19.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.09 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +48.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +42.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 42.3% / 11.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 46%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 10.9 per share, median 22.8 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−19.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)61.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erste Bank Polska S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EBP
Frequently asked questions
Is Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 636.44 PLN versus a price of 786.40 PLN, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EBP?
Our model-based fair value for Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 636.44 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 786.40 PLN.
What is the quality score of EBP?
Erste Bank Polska S.A. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 636.44 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 437.30 PLN, optimistic scenario 795.55 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erste Bank Polska S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 636.44 PLN, about 19% lower versus a price of 786.40 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 437.30 PLN, optimistic scenario 795.55 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Erste Bank Polska S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.6B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Erste Bank Polska S.A. pay a dividend?
Erste Bank Polska S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 6.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Erste Bank Polska S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EBP use?
Our models discount Erste Bank Polska S.A. at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Erste Bank Polska S.A. that is -6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Erste Bank Polska S.A. grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies -6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Erste Bank Polska S.A. (-6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.14 %: that much free cash flow Erste Bank Polska S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erste Bank Polska S.A. it is 636.44 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 786.40 PLN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Erste Bank Polska S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, EBP trades above its calculated fair value: price 786.40 PLN, fair value 636.44 PLN, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EBP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (786.40 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (636.44 PLN). For Erste Bank Polska S.A. the two are 149.96 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erste Bank Polska S.A. worth?
The market values Erste Bank Polska S.A. at about 80.4B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 786.40 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 636.44 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EBP?
Our models span a range for Erste Bank Polska S.A.: cautious scenario 437.30 PLN, base 636.44 PLN, optimistic 795.55 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 786.40 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EBP?
Erste Bank Polska S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 636.44 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of EBP?
The PEG ratio of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erste Bank Polska S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 15.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EBP from its 52-week high?
Erste Bank Polska S.A. trades at 786.40 PLN, about 3% below its 52-week high of 812.40 PLN and 79% above the low of 440.42 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 636.44 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erste Bank Polska S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erste Bank Polska S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 786.40 PLN, calculated fair value 636.44 PLN (−19%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EBP calculated?
We run Erste Bank Polska S.A. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 636.44 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Erste Bank Polska S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 786.40 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 636.44 PLN, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erste Bank Polska S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (437.30 PLN to 795.55 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) come from?
Earnings per share at Erste Bank Polska S.A. grew +10.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.8 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Erste Bank Polska S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The market capitalisation of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 80.4B PLN (≈ $20.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 5.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Earnings per share at Erste Bank Polska S.A. are 52.44 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The dividend yield of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 6.4% (payout 95.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The net margin of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 35.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
The operating margin of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 61.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Revenue at Erste Bank Polska S.A. is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP)?
Earnings per share at Erste Bank Polska S.A. are growing −21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Erste Bank Polska S.A. (EBP) carry?
The net debt of Erste Bank Polska S.A. is 22.3B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026