Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 70.2B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +9.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from 618.15 PLN (bear) to 1,030 PLN (bull), base 824.20 PLN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 70/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 141.54 PLN – 745.60 PLN · fair‑value band 618.15 PLN – 1,030 PLN · the 730.00 PLN price screens below the 824.20 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP) currently trades at 730.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 824.20 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Erste Bank Polska S.A generated revenue of 15.4B PLN at a net margin of 37.4%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at 22.3B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 618.15 PLN (bear case) to 1,030 PLN (bull case); at 730.00 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 13%, EBP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,241 PLN) versus Asset-Based (232.27 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Erste Bank Polska S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, small or medium-sized enterprises, corporate clients, and public sector institutions. The company offers personal account, savings accounts and term deposits, currencies, internet and mobile banking, and contactless payments, and debit and credit solutions.
Full company description
Erste Bank Polska S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, small or medium-sized enterprises, corporate clients, and public sector institutions. The company offers personal account, savings accounts and term deposits, currencies, internet and mobile banking, and contactless payments, and debit and credit solutions. It also provides consumer loans and home mortgages; mutual funds, including pension schemes and various investment programmes; and tourist/travel, motor, and home insurance products, as well as bancassurance products. In addition, the company offers foreign exchange, bank guarantees, and foreign letter of credit. The company was formerly known as Santander Bank Polska S.A. and changed its name to Erste Bank Polska S.A. in April 2026. Erste Bank Polska S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Erste Bank Polska S.A reported revenue of 17.9B PLN in FY2025 versus 9.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding +55.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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