EN DE

Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · PL · Market cap 70.2B PLN

EB Erste Bank Polska S.A EBP · WAR
Price730.00 PLN
Fair Value824.20 PLN
Upside+12.9%
Quality70/100
Watch Erste Bank Polska S.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 37.4% net margin
generates free cash flow
7.36% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Wide moat 72/100
Evidence: High Range 618.15 PLN – 1,030 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +9.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
  • Our model range runs from 618.15 PLN (bear) to 1,030 PLN (bull), base 824.20 PLN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 70/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

745.60 PLN 141.54 PLN Fair Value 824.20 PLN Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 141.54 PLN – 745.60 PLN · fair‑value band 618.15 PLN – 1,030 PLN · the 730.00 PLN price screens below the 824.20 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP) currently trades at 730.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 824.20 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 12.9% undervalued today. We read business quality at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Erste Bank Polska S.A generated revenue of 15.4B PLN at a net margin of 37.4%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at 22.3B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 618.15 PLN (bear case) to 1,030 PLN (bull case); at 730.00 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 13%, EBP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 403.85 PLN 494.41 PLN 1,151 PLN 76
Growth DCF 703.49 PLN 1,012 PLN 1,507 PLN 72
Gordon GGM 430.84 PLN 895.80 PLN 1,421 PLN 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 700.01 PLN 1,018 PLN 1,530 PLN 38
Owner Earnings 969.76 PLN 1,465 PLN 2,263 PLN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 575.58 PLN 785.87 PLN 1,057 PLN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 885.27 PLN 1,389 PLN 1,998 PLN 41
5Y P/E Exit 948.63 PLN 1,513 PLN 2,130 PLN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 605.12 PLN 812.54 PLN 1,100 PLN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 815.58 PLN 1,241 PLN 1,847 PLN 37
10Y P/E Exit 856.63 PLN 1,329 PLN 1,951 PLN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 431.12 PLN 1,613 PLN 2,181 PLN 54
Lynch FV 388.77 PLN 555.38 PLN 722.00 PLN 50
PEG = 1.0 388.77 PLN 555.38 PLN 722.00 PLN 46
EPV 825.04 PLN 926.52 PLN 1,015 PLN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 430.84 PLN 895.80 PLN 1,421 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 430.84 PLN 755.36 PLN 940.17 PLN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 951.00 PLN 1,268 PLN 1,585 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 328.13 PLN 437.51 PLN 546.88 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 780.00 PLN 1,040 PLN 1,300 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 1,307 PLN 1,671 PLN 2,035 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 1,061 PLN 1,343 PLN 1,625 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 522.42 PLN 653.67 PLN 784.93 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 173.33 PLN 232.27 PLN 346.67 PLN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 703.49 PLN 1,012 PLN 1,507 PLN 72
Rev-Margin DCF 575.58 PLN 786.62 PLN 1,043 PLN 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income 403.85 PLN 494.41 PLN 1,151 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 866.95 PLN 1,028 PLN 1,207 PLN 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 697.16 PLN 995.94 PLN 1,295 PLN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,241 PLN) versus Asset-Based (232.27 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 15.4B PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.4%
Net margin 37.4%
Return on equity 16.3%
Free cash flow 4.1B PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 10.7
More key figures
Operating margin 51.1%
EPS (TTM) 56.84 PLN
Dividend yield 8.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -40.7%
Net debt 22.3B PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Erste Bank Polska S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, small or medium-sized enterprises, corporate clients, and public sector institutions. The company offers personal account, savings accounts and term deposits, currencies, internet and mobile banking, and contactless payments, and debit and credit solutions.

Full company description

Erste Bank Polska S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, small or medium-sized enterprises, corporate clients, and public sector institutions. The company offers personal account, savings accounts and term deposits, currencies, internet and mobile banking, and contactless payments, and debit and credit solutions. It also provides consumer loans and home mortgages; mutual funds, including pension schemes and various investment programmes; and tourist/travel, motor, and home insurance products, as well as bancassurance products. In addition, the company offers foreign exchange, bank guarantees, and foreign letter of credit. The company was formerly known as Santander Bank Polska S.A. and changed its name to Erste Bank Polska S.A. in April 2026. Erste Bank Polska S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Erste Bank Polska S.A reported revenue of 17.9B PLN in FY2025 versus 9.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding +55.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
17.9B PLN
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+33.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+13.6%
Revenue +17.5%/yr
FY21 9.4B PLN
FY22 15.2B PLN
FY23 21.2B PLN
FY24 22.3B PLN
FY25 17.9B PLN
Net income +55.4%/yr
FY21 1.1B PLN
FY22 2.8B PLN
FY23 4.8B PLN
FY24 5.2B PLN
FY25 6.5B PLN

Watch EBP: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erste Bank Polska S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EBP

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1082 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.22× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.98× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 51 · sector 39
FUTURE 2 · sector 44
PAST 65 · sector 41
HEALTH 0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

Compare Erste Bank Polska S.A with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Financial Services stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 824.20 PLN versus a price of 730.00 PLN, about +13% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EBP?
Our model-based fair value for Erste Bank Polska S.A is 824.20 PLN (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 730.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of EBP?
Erste Bank Polska S.A has a Quality Score of 70/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Erste Bank Polska S.A (EBP)?
Erste Bank Polska S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.4B PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EBP?
The net profit margin of Erste Bank Polska S.A is about 37.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 37.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Erste Bank Polska S.A pay a dividend?
Erste Bank Polska S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Erste Bank Polska S.A and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.