Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Erste Group Bank AG stock €78.21, price €112, that is 29.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.23 – €126.40 · fair‑value band €64.98 – €107.47 · the €111.50 price screens above the €78.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers.
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It offers savings and current accounts, and term deposit products; consumer credit and mortgage lending; commercial real estate, investment loan, acquisition and leveraged finance, project finance, and product neutral financial advice; and factoring, accounts receivable purchasing, working capital finance, and structured trade finance, and ErsteConfirming, a supply chain finance solution.
The company also provides interests and FX hedging, letters of credit, documentary collections, and guarantees; cash-management solutions, such as cash pooling, payment transactions, digital banking, payment factory, VIRTUAL.IBAN, and POS-terminals and e-commerce; equity interests and investments, revolving export credit lines, and customer financing.
In addition, it offers loan syndication, debt capital market, and equity capital market services; custody and brokerage services, including safekeeping, settlement, corporate action events, tax reclaim assistance, proxy voting, brokerage services, securities lending, clearing services for remote members on Vienna Stock Exchange, and market news services; and George, a digital retail product.
The company operates in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, and internationally. Erste Group Bank AG was founded in 1819 and is based in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) currently trades at €111.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €78.21, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €90.61 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €111.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €42.93, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €64.98 (bear) to €107.47 (bull), the price of €111.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Erste Group Bank AG reported revenue of €11.8B in FY2025 versus €7.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €45.9B Large · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) €9.68 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 28.4% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −30%, EBS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€64.98Fair Value €78.21Bull€107.47
Price €111.50 · Downside -29.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€7.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 13.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 46%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Erste Group's main strength is its ongoing consolidation in profitable CEE markets such as Poland, yet its main weak point remains the limited evidence of a durable moat beyond typical regional bank metrics.
Main risk: Ongoing lawsuits over foreign-currency indexed mortgages at Erste Bank Polska could require further provisions and hit margins as the group raises its stake toward majority ownership.
Bull case: Erste could integrate its Polish operations efficiently while using its scale and George platform to retain customers against neobanks and resolve legacy mortgage cases through settlements or legal wins.
Bear case: Persistent CHF mortgage litigation could drain capital through higher provisions while neobanks erode market share in Poland, limiting the benefits of deeper CEE exposure and pressuring overall profitability.
Erste Group is preparing a tender offer to raise its stake in Erste Bank Polska from 49 percent toward majority ownership. This step builds on the earlier consolidation in Poland and targets one of the more profitable CEE banking markets through internal funding. Does the deeper exposure to Polish growth add meaningful diversification and scale, or does it mainly increase concentration risk within the existing CEE portfolio?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)28.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)50.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)40.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.23× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG5.12× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)56· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)13· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erste Group Bank AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EBS.VI
Frequently asked questions
Is Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €78.21 versus a price of €111.50, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EBS?
Our model-based fair value for Erste Group Bank AG is €78.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €111.50.
What is the quality score of EBS?
Erste Group Bank AG has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €78.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €64.98, optimistic scenario €107.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erste Group Bank AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €78.21, about 30% lower versus a price of €111.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €64.98, optimistic scenario €107.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Erste Group Bank AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €14.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Erste Group Bank AG pay a dividend?
Erste Group Bank AG currently shows a dividend yield of 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Erste Group Bank AG pays a dividend of €0.75 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 7.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Erste Group Bank AG it is €78.21 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €111.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Erste Group Bank AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, EBS trades above its calculated fair value: price €111.50, fair value €78.21, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EBS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€111.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€78.21). For Erste Group Bank AG the two are €33.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Erste Group Bank AG worth?
The market values Erste Group Bank AG at about €45.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €111.50; our models calculate a fair value of €78.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EBS?
Our models span a range for Erste Group Bank AG: cautious scenario €64.98, base €78.21, optimistic €107.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €111.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EBS?
Erste Group Bank AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €78.21 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.3. Other multiples: PEG 5.1, P/B 1.8, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EBS?
The PEG ratio of Erste Group Bank AG is 5.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Erste Group Bank AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EBS from its 52-week high?
Erste Group Bank AG trades at €111.50, about 12% below its 52-week high of €126.40 and 28% above the low of €87.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €78.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Erste Group Bank AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Erste Group Bank AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €111.50, calculated fair value €78.21 (−30%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EBS calculated?
We run Erste Group Bank AG through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €78.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Erste Group Bank AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €111.50. Our model-based fair value is €78.21, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Erste Group Bank AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€107.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) come from?
Earnings per share at Erste Group Bank AG grew +14.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +6.8 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Erste Group Bank AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The market capitalisation of Erste Group Bank AG is €45.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Erste Group Bank AG is 3.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Earnings per share at Erste Group Bank AG are €9.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The dividend yield of Erste Group Bank AG is 0.7% (payout 7.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The net margin of Erste Group Bank AG is 28.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Erste Group Bank AG is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Erste Group Bank AG is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
The operating margin of Erste Group Bank AG is 50.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Revenue at Erste Group Bank AG is growing +40.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Erste Group Bank AG (EBS)?
Earnings per share at Erste Group Bank AG are growing +24.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) generate?
The free cash flow of Erste Group Bank AG is €3.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Erste Group Bank AG (EBS) carry?
The net debt of Erste Group Bank AG is €13.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026