Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eldorado Gold Corp stock $28.57, price $33.54, that is 14.8% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.14 – $49.52 · fair‑value band $21.43 – $35.71 · the $33.54 price screens above the $28.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece. It primarily produces gold, as well as silver, lead, and zinc.
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The company holds a 100% interest in the Kisladag and Efemçukuru mines located in Turkey; Lamaque complex located in Quebec, Canada; Olympias located in northern Greece; and Stratoni, Skouries, Perama Hill, and Sapes gold mines located in Greece.
The company was formerly known as Eldorado Corporation Ltd. and changed its name to Eldorado Gold Corporation in April 1996. Eldorado Gold Corporation was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) currently trades at $33.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.57, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $45.53 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $33.54 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $10.63, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.43 (bear) to $35.71 (bull), the price of $33.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eldorado Gold Corp reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $943M in FY2021, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was $516M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.5B Mid · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 4.04 · EPS (TTM) $3.01 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 31.7% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −15%, EGO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.43Fair Value $28.57Bull$35.71
Price $33.54 · Downside -14.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$14.29$16.09$20.9076
EPV$19.84$22.74$25.1674
ROIC Compounder$21.85$29.98$37.3672
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$13.44$84.94$118.6863
Lynch FV$24.52$35.03$45.5461
PEG = 1.0$24.52$35.03$45.5457
EPV$19.84$22.74$25.1674
Multiples
P/E Multiple$25.21$33.61$42.0163
P/S Multiple$7.98$10.63$13.2958
P/B Multiple$7.89$10.52$13.1555
EV/EBIT$29.23$39.52$49.8166
EV/EBITDA$28.20$38.14$48.0967
EV/Revenue$5.80$8.99$12.1853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$8.00$10.73$16.0154
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.29$16.09$20.9076
ROIC Compounder$21.85$29.98$37.3672
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$31.87$45.53$59.2067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+32.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 32.9% / 13.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 42%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Modest business quality arises from thin durable advantages in commodity gold mining, with the main strength being EU-backed copper exposure at Skouries and the main weakness negative free cash flow despite positive net income.
Main risk: Failure to renew the Kassandra Mines concessions expiring in March 2026 or new regulatory changes in Greece could delay or halt Skouries operations and hit production and margins.
Bull case: Successful concession renewal and steady Skouries ramp-up could unlock EU-supported copper-gold output and strengthen cash flows to service debt comfortably.
Bear case: Renewal delays or regulatory hurdles combined with project debt constraints could prolong negative free cash flow and limit operational flexibility for years.
Eldorado Gold’s Skouries project in Greece has secured strategic status under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act and is set to deliver both gold and copper output starting late this year. This adds exposure to a metal central to electrification while gaining faster permitting and financing support. Yet the company’s overall quality profile remains modest. Will the new copper stream and regulatory tailwinds lift results more than ongoing development risks hold them back?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−14.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)31.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)41.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
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Is Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.57 versus a price of $33.54, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EGO?
Our model-based fair value for Eldorado Gold Corp is $28.57 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.54.
What is the quality score of EGO?
Eldorado Gold Corp has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.57 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.43, optimistic scenario $35.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eldorado Gold Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.57, about 15% lower versus a price of $33.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.43, optimistic scenario $35.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Eldorado Gold Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Eldorado Gold Corp pay a dividend?
Eldorado Gold Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eldorado Gold Corp it is $28.57 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $33.54. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eldorado Gold Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, EGO trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.54, fair value $28.57, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.57). For Eldorado Gold Corp the two are $4.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eldorado Gold Corp worth?
The market values Eldorado Gold Corp at about $8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $33.54; our models calculate a fair value of $28.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EGO?
Our models span a range for Eldorado Gold Corp: cautious scenario $21.43, base $28.57, optimistic $35.71 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $33.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EGO?
Eldorado Gold Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.57 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 18.7 (reported for FY2025: 13.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 20.7. Other multiples: PEG 6.0, P/B 2.0, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of EGO?
The PEG ratio of Eldorado Gold Corp is 5.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eldorado Gold Corp (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EGO from its 52-week high?
Eldorado Gold Corp trades at $33.54, about 32% below its 52-week high of $49.52 and 35% above the low of $24.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eldorado Gold Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eldorado Gold Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $33.54, calculated fair value $28.57 (−15%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EGO calculated?
We run Eldorado Gold Corp through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $28.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Eldorado Gold Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $33.54. Our model-based fair value is $28.57, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eldorado Gold Corp right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Eldorado Gold Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The market capitalisation of Eldorado Gold Corp is $8.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eldorado Gold Corp is 4.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Earnings per share at Eldorado Gold Corp are $3.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The dividend yield of Eldorado Gold Corp is 0.7% (payout 10.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 7.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The net margin of Eldorado Gold Corp is 31.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eldorado Gold Corp is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eldorado Gold Corp is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
The operating margin of Eldorado Gold Corp is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Revenue at Eldorado Gold Corp is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO)?
Earnings per share at Eldorado Gold Corp are growing +62.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) generate?
The free cash flow of Eldorado Gold Corp is −$195M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Eldorado Gold Corp (EGO) carry?
The net debt of Eldorado Gold Corp is $428M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026